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Message
Could you be correct only 22% of the time at your job and not get fired?
Posted on 5/5/15 at 8:59 am
Posted on 5/5/15 at 8:59 am
Mel Kiper can.
LINK
quote:
In the months leading up to the draft, ESPN’s Mel Kiper puts out several mock drafts predicting which players will land on which teams. Now that all is said and done, how accurate were his rankings?
At a quick glance at 2015, it appears not very. Kiper correctly predicted seven first-round picks, just 22 percent. He was able to predict the landing spots for Jameis Winston, Marcus Mariota, Amari Cooper, Ereck Flowers, Trae Waynes, Danny Shelton and Melvin Gordon, but missed on the rest.
LINK
30
Posted on 5/5/15 at 9:00 am to stout
TODD TODD TODD TODD TODD
Posted on 5/5/15 at 9:01 am to stout
wouldn't make it to lunch 
Posted on 5/5/15 at 9:01 am to stout
Do you know of someone who has been consistently more accurate?
Posted on 5/5/15 at 9:02 am to stout
And everybody knew 1, 2, and Melvin Gordon. So he only got 2 or 3 picks better than the average person.
Posted on 5/5/15 at 9:02 am to stout
I ask myself that same question every time I watch the weather, so I guess that answers your question
Posted on 5/5/15 at 9:03 am to Boomshockalocka
they need to cut the whole espn crew and nfl network crew and just make one good crew to do the draft.
Todd mcshay
gruden
mayock
berman
Todd mcshay
gruden
mayock
berman
Posted on 5/5/15 at 9:04 am to stout
FWIW he changes his mocks several times just to stir up conversation.
It isn't about getting it right.
It's about clicks and shares.
It isn't about getting it right.
It's about clicks and shares.
Posted on 5/5/15 at 9:05 am to stout
quote:
Jameis Winston, Marcus Mariota,
He shouldnt get credit for those two. Everyone knew they were going there.
Posted on 5/5/15 at 9:06 am to rondo
I know it is just talking points to generate interest, but it still seems like he could do better than 22% with his final predictions considering the resources he has at his disposal.
Posted on 5/5/15 at 9:10 am to stout
I don't know how you could ever be very accurate. One team "changing" it's pick has a cascading effect down the draft. Even if say, a guy Team A wanted at #7 is still there, they may change their pick because another guy became available, and so on.
Posted on 5/5/15 at 9:10 am to stout
quote:
Could you be correct only 22% of the time at your job and not get fired?
Like it or not, he has that position because he is an articulate, loud mouth who has been a fixture with ESPN for years. He is recognizable and entertaining, for some at least.
Accuracy has nothing to do with his ability to retain his position. Think of how many "experts" and "analysts" still have jobs despite being uninformed dimwits.
Posted on 5/5/15 at 9:10 am to stout
What i hate more than his mock draft is that he not only makes a big board, but then gives out grades based on that big board. So his grades arent "Which teams drafted the best" its "Which teams agreed with me"
Posted on 5/5/15 at 9:15 am to stout
I love Mel. You wont ever have his job so why does it matter that he went 22%?
Posted on 5/5/15 at 9:15 am to stout
quote:
Mel Kiper can.
In most professions, when analysts are guessing at things happening in the future (stock prices, market trends, sales needs, etc) if they are frequently wrong either they, their company, or their customers will lose out on money or product. This is an issue.
Mel Kiper guessing wrong on which player goes to which team is so incredibly irrelevant it doesn't even need to be expanded on.
Posted on 5/5/15 at 9:16 am to Hester Carries
A better way to grade his performance would be to show how far players were actually drafted from his prediction. For instance last year in his final mock draft the night before it started on a selection special preview Kiper had Bruce Ellington the WR from South Carolina going late in the first round. He was then selected two days later in the third round. But whatever ESPN says he is an expert so he must be
Posted on 5/5/15 at 9:18 am to oleyeller
quote:
they need to cut the whole espn crew and nfl network crew and just make one good crew to do the draft.
Todd mcshay
gruden
mayock
berman
WAT.
Posted on 5/5/15 at 9:19 am to stout
quote:
Could you be correct only 22% of the time at your job and not get fired? by stout
quote:
At a quick glance at 2015, it appears not very. Kiper correctly predicted seven first-round picks, just 22 percent. He was able to predict the landing spots for Jameis Winston, Marcus Mariota, Amari Cooper, Ereck Flowers, Trae Waynes, Danny Shelton and Melvin Gordon, but missed on the rest.
Really stupid thread and terrible comparison.
There probably aren't many NFL GMs that could predict the exact landing spots of players in the NFL draft with more precision than that. I would love to see the all of the guys that did predict better.
Posted on 5/5/15 at 9:20 am to stout
22% of the time, it works every time 
Posted on 5/5/15 at 9:20 am to HoustonTiger2008
only baseball players, weathermen, and mel kiper have this leniency.
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