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Basketball Bet Thread 12/16
Posted on 12/16/12 at 11:33 am
Posted on 12/16/12 at 11:33 am
NBA:
Raptors +4
More to come later for the night games
Raptors +4
More to come later for the night games
2
Posted on 12/16/12 at 11:44 am to maclauer
Raptors are on the third of a b2b2b right?
I was thinking Houston and the Lakers par
I was thinking Houston and the Lakers par
Posted on 12/16/12 at 12:04 pm to Bow to Auburn
quote:
Raptors are on the third of a b2b2b right?
No. They've been playing every other day recently.
Also, I don't think there are any b2b2b this season.
Posted on 12/16/12 at 12:11 pm to maclauer
Back from my trip, how have your last two days gone? Pretty good from what I remember looking at my phone the other evening.
Posted on 12/16/12 at 2:23 pm to dgtiger3
adding 76ers +3
My numbers had the Raptors and 76ers winning straight-up, them both getting points was just a bonus.
And the Raptors are gonna win straight-up.
My numbers had the Raptors and 76ers winning straight-up, them both getting points was just a bonus.
And the Raptors are gonna win straight-up.
Posted on 12/16/12 at 2:41 pm to maclauer
My system, day three:
Formula 1's 2 star plays: 11-10 YTD
76ers 2Q +.5
!Nuggets 2Q -1!
Blazers 2Q -1
Blazers 3Q -1
Formula 1's 3 star plays: 2-2-1 YTD
Lakers 1Q -1
Hornets 1Q +1.5
Formula 1 is 13-12-1 YTD
Formula 2's 2 star plays: 19-9 YTD
!Kings 2Q +1!
Blazers 3Q -1
Formula 2's 3 star plays: 0-3 YTD
Blazers 2Q -1
Formula 2's 4 star plays: 2-0 YTD
Hornets 1Q +1.5
Formula 2 is 21-12 YTD
5 star plays (aka formula agreement plays) are those italicized and are 7-2 YTD. These are the only ones I currently bet on.
Note: the two formulas disagreed (for the first time) on Nuggets/Kings 2Q, which is why I put exclamation points around them.
Formula 1's 2 star plays: 11-10 YTD
76ers 2Q +.5
!Nuggets 2Q -1!
Blazers 2Q -1
Blazers 3Q -1
Formula 1's 3 star plays: 2-2-1 YTD
Lakers 1Q -1
Hornets 1Q +1.5
Formula 1 is 13-12-1 YTD
Formula 2's 2 star plays: 19-9 YTD
!Kings 2Q +1!
Blazers 3Q -1
Formula 2's 3 star plays: 0-3 YTD
Blazers 2Q -1
Formula 2's 4 star plays: 2-0 YTD
Hornets 1Q +1.5
Formula 2 is 21-12 YTD
5 star plays (aka formula agreement plays) are those italicized and are 7-2 YTD. These are the only ones I currently bet on.
Note: the two formulas disagreed (for the first time) on Nuggets/Kings 2Q, which is why I put exclamation points around them.
Posted on 12/16/12 at 2:53 pm to maclauer
Cliffs, I am on:
Raptors +4 (W)
76ers +3
Hornets 1Q +1.5
Blazers 2Q -1
Blazers 3Q -1
BOL all
Raptors +4 (W)
76ers +3
Hornets 1Q +1.5
Blazers 2Q -1
Blazers 3Q -1
BOL all
Posted on 12/16/12 at 4:47 pm to maclauer
Good stuff maclauer
I am back in action tonight...
All three of the dogs tonight matchup favorably with their opponents, so I think that's where the value is at.
Sixers should win this game outright and they are getting +3.5 at home.
Kings matchup surprisingly well against the Nuggets, who have been a much better team at home.
Hornets matchup well and the Blazers are coming off that big Spurs win Thursday night, I think they will come out rusty and I really like the 1Q bet here as well.
As much as I do like the dogs, I don't usually like betting +4/4.5 points unless I feel really good about the dogs chances of winning outright. So I am rolling with the following
Hornets 1Q +1.5 (0.5 Unit)
Kings +8.5 Sixers +7 Teaser (1.5 Units)
Kings +8.5 Hornets +8.5 Teaser (0.5 Units)
Hornets +8.5 Sixers +7 Teaser (0.75 Units)
Sixers +3 (0.5 Units)
I am back in action tonight...
All three of the dogs tonight matchup favorably with their opponents, so I think that's where the value is at.
Sixers should win this game outright and they are getting +3.5 at home.
Kings matchup surprisingly well against the Nuggets, who have been a much better team at home.
Hornets matchup well and the Blazers are coming off that big Spurs win Thursday night, I think they will come out rusty and I really like the 1Q bet here as well.
As much as I do like the dogs, I don't usually like betting +4/4.5 points unless I feel really good about the dogs chances of winning outright. So I am rolling with the following
Hornets 1Q +1.5 (0.5 Unit)
Kings +8.5 Sixers +7 Teaser (1.5 Units)
Kings +8.5 Hornets +8.5 Teaser (0.5 Units)
Hornets +8.5 Sixers +7 Teaser (0.75 Units)
Sixers +3 (0.5 Units)
Posted on 12/16/12 at 5:17 pm to dgtiger3
Formula 2 is what I'm most optimistic about; it's similar to Formula 1 but features more variables and is more dependent on home/road splits. With the way I designed the formulas, both formulas agreeing or them disagreeing should strengthen the probability of Formula 2 being correct.
In 1Q of LAL/PHI, F1 3 starred on LAL while F2 leaned PHI. In 2Q of DEN/SAC, F1 2 starred DEN while F2 two starred SAC. I will be watching those results closely.
In 1Q of LAL/PHI, F1 3 starred on LAL while F2 leaned PHI. In 2Q of DEN/SAC, F1 2 starred DEN while F2 two starred SAC. I will be watching those results closely.
Posted on 12/16/12 at 6:41 pm to maclauer
76ers looking bad but I'm due for a b.s. cover
Posted on 12/16/12 at 10:09 pm to maclauer
quote:
Formula 1's 2 star plays: 11-10 YTD
76ers 2Q +.5 LOSS
!Nuggets 2Q -1! WIN
Blazers 2Q -1 WIN
Blazers 3Q -1 PUSH
2-1-1 tonight. 13-11-1 YTD.
quote:
Formula 1's 3 star plays: 2-2-1 YTD
Lakers 1Q -1 WIN
Hornets 1Q +1.5 LOSS
1-1 tonight. 3-3-1 YTD.
Formula 1 goes 3-2-1 tonight. 16-14-2 YTD.
quote:
Formula 2's 2 star plays: 19-9 YTD
!Kings 2Q +1! LOSS
Blazers 3Q -1 PUSH
0-1-1 tonight. 19-10-1 YTD.
quote:
Formula 2's 3 star plays: 0-3 YTD
Blazers 2Q -1 WIN
1-0 tonight. 1-3 YTD.
quote:
Formula 2's 4 star plays: 2-0 YTD
Hornets 1Q +1.5 LOSS
0-1 tonight. 2-1 YTD.
Formula 2 goes 1-2-1 tonight. 22-14-1 YTD.
5 star plays (aka those picked by both formulas) goes 1-1-1 tonight. 8-3-1 YTD.
Full-game picks went 1-1, system picks I played went 1-1-1, so 2-2-1 overall tonight.
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