re: Andre Johnson for Ryan Mallet?

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I'm a fan of sending the 33rd pick overall to NE for Mallet and picking Clowney with the 1st pick.

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you feel like giving the first pick in the 2nd round for mallett is a better value than getting rid of a huge contract? Mallett is a 3rd rounder with zero NFL starts and now he has risen in value in your opinion? Based on what? Preseason? Potential? not criticizing, genuinely curious

this is exactly what I am interested in with this hypothetical trade scenario

what should the expectations for a high 2nd round pick be:
1) a starter
2) a rotation guy
3) a backup

with a:
1) two seasons and probably cut career expectancy
2) 4 seasons and probably gone via UFA
3) 10 seasons and a building block of your team

let's say for the first pick in the second round the league average is:

starter that leaves in UFA after 4 seasons

Is Ryan Mallett worth that?

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Certainly more realistic than trading your best offensive player, even if he is 33 on opening day, for a QB with zero NFL starts.

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"best offensive player" in the past, I am not sure that is really true. However does that mean in anything in 2014? 2015? Look no further than Schaub and Foster for how quickly things can fall apart.

Is drafting a rookie QB going to be a big part of the fix to what ails the Texans?

I agree that Clowney is the #1 pick and whatever else happens with QB/OL/RB is a work in progress

some numbers to chew on:

LINK
RECEIVING: Minimum 50 passes, 90 players ranked

The simple version: DYAR means a wide receiver with more total value (general usage in an offense). DVOA means a wide receiver with more value per play (applies more to deep threats).


2013 Andre Johnson was the 32nd rated WR based on DYAR and 55th based on DVOA

of course these stats were related to the shitty QB play of the Texans

2013 #1 based on DYAR was Demaryius Thomas and #1 based on DVOA was Kenny Stills (oddly enough)


2012 AJ was #2 in DYAR and #1 in DVOA
Megatron was #1 in DYAR and Danario Alexander wa #1 in DVOA

Schaub was a Pro Bowler in 2012

As a Razorback I tried to think of the most that Houston. Oils give up to get the legend in a Texan uni.

I don't think its dumb but that is IF Mallet turns out to be decent. I mean, if Mallet turned out to be a serviceable QB and they could pair Clowney with Watt they could be like those Giants teams that won 2 SBs a few years ago.

Why trade Andre when you can probably get Mallet for 4th?

Houston is already thin at WR. No need to create another immediate hole to fill by bringing on an unknown. Plus, you have your pick of the draft for free.

I agree Andre should maybe be on the table for a good return. Mallet isn't it.

I firmly believe the most important thing in this hypothetical scenario would be getting rid of AJ's contract first and getting a potential starting QB second. AJ is a $15.6mm cap number for 2014 with $12mm in dead money. He is $16.1mm on the cap and $7.3mm dead money in 2015. AJ will most assuredly be cut after the 2014 season. Under the AJ for Mallett scenario, getting a possible starting QB for a WR you are probably going to cut in Feb 2015 would be an absolute steal for the Texans.


check this out:
Cap 2014

Cap 2015

Cap 2016

How the Texans fell from grace

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September 10: Houston signs Matt Schaub to a five-year, $66.1 million contract extension. I probably don’t need to retell the tale of how this one hasn’t worked out. The good news for the Texans, I suppose, is that Schaub’s contract isn’t quite as onerous as you might think. The Texans can designate Schaub as a post–June 1 release and split the $10.5 million in resulting dead money from his deal over two years, with $3.5 million on the 2014 cap and $7 million on the 2015 cap. (Cut to Texans fans thinking about having $7 million devoted to Matt Schaub on the cap two years from now.)

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Where the Texans money is best spent

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That kind of money may not be as nearly as regrettable as other contracts, though. One of the biggest concerns heading into next season is the running back spot, and with two talented players on the roster, there's a lot of money to be spent, but maybe not enough to keep both.

It seems like free agent Ben Tate is disinterested in staying with the team as long as Arian Foster is around. And after the Texans spent $43.5 million on Foster as an undrafted rookie out of Tennessee, an early back injury last year could make this scenario really heated before we know it.

Simply put, the numbers don't lie. If Houston cut Foster before June 1, they'd save close to $1.5 million, but that would rely on Tate signing a long-term deal of course.

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Decisions for the Texans
1) decision on Schaub (cut)
2) decision on Tate/Foster (probably keep Foster/let Tate go UFA)
3) decision on Jonathon Joseph (cut)
4) decision on Duane Brown (cut)
5) draft direction

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I posted a few weeks ago in the If you were the Texans GM what would you do, that I thought they would trade their 2nd round pick for Mallet. Now the question is what's great 33rd overall pick to AJ?

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I would take AJ

Belichick would take the pick

I thought the discussion from the Chron article a few weeks ago has pointed to him being a cut casualty

I could be mistaken

ETA I am mistaken, it is next year where his dead money drops to $2.5mm

What does that even mean?