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When ACA is repealed on day one

Posted on 12/26/16 at 10:26 pm
Posted by matthew25
Member since Jun 2012
9425 posts
Posted on 12/26/16 at 10:26 pm
do you expect the Health Care and Biotech stocks to fall?
Posted by 3morereps
The Gym
Member since Jun 2015
6735 posts
Posted on 12/26/16 at 10:38 pm to
Yes
Posted by Twenty 49
Shreveport
Member since Jun 2014
18725 posts
Posted on 12/26/16 at 10:38 pm to
Yes. Dumping them and buying construction stocks that will go up with the border wall project on day two.
Posted by lynxcat
Member since Jan 2008
24121 posts
Posted on 12/27/16 at 12:35 am to
I will be shocked if ACA is actually repealed on "day 1". It will likely be delayed for awhile and then replaced with some Republican version.
Posted by LSUFanHouston
NOLA
Member since Jul 2009
37007 posts
Posted on 12/27/16 at 9:17 am to
quote:

When ACA is repealed on day one


Not happening.

Dumping millions off the health insurance rolls with no replacement will guarantee that mid-term elections will destroy the GOP majorities.

Remember that the GOPers in Congress are only concerned about one thing, and that is keeping their seats.

I do think you will see a suspension of some aspects, followed by a reform. The two biggest benefits of ACA, and the two biggest cost drivers - guaranteed issue and dependent coverage until age 26 - are loved by majorities in both parties and that isn't going away.

I think you will see cost reforms in ways that will help increase competition.
Posted by matthew25
Member since Jun 2012
9425 posts
Posted on 12/27/16 at 9:43 am to
Remember that the Republicans have voted to repeal ACA more than 62 times so far.

Trump wants to keep the pre-existing, and the age 26 provisions.

I think it will be repealed in a symbolic gesture, setting off the health care market, with a grace period of 1-2 years.
This post was edited on 12/27/16 at 10:55 am
Posted by lynxcat
Member since Jan 2008
24121 posts
Posted on 12/27/16 at 9:46 am to
The 26 rule, while an arbitrary age, is a great feature of ACA.

Preexisting condition gets more complicated but I'm ok with those getting coverage if they pay more.
Posted by Chuker
St George, Louisiana
Member since Nov 2015
7544 posts
Posted on 12/27/16 at 11:46 am to
quote:

The 26 rule, while an arbitrary age, is a great feature of ACA.


no. age 18 then their arse is cut off. quit babying people.
Posted by LSUFanHouston
NOLA
Member since Jul 2009
37007 posts
Posted on 12/27/16 at 12:03 pm to
quote:

Remember that the Republicans have voted to repeal ACA more than 62 times so far.


That was for show. It was a safe vote for them - red meat to the base, with no consequences.

The GOP is great at being the party in opposition. Now, we will see how well they can actually govern.
Posted by Cold Cous Cous
Bucktown, La.
Member since Oct 2003
15042 posts
Posted on 12/27/16 at 12:04 pm to
quote:

The 26 rule, while an arbitrary age, is a great feature of ACA.

This bit is extremely popular, but in the grand scheme of the ACA it's a pimple on a gnat's arse. It's primarily a PR move -- it's easily understandable (which you certainly can't say for the rest of the Act) and everybody likes it. But costs of insuring 24 and 25 year olds - who are about the healthiest cohort on the planet - was never a meaningful concern driving US health care policy.
Posted by LSUFanHouston
NOLA
Member since Jul 2009
37007 posts
Posted on 12/27/16 at 12:05 pm to
quote:

no. age 18 then their arse is cut off. quit babying people.


I think the same rule as tax dependents (18, or 23 if in college) makes sense.

I'm not a huge fan of going to 26, but it's very popular.
Posted by matthew25
Member since Jun 2012
9425 posts
Posted on 12/27/16 at 12:31 pm to
Hey Houston -- Doesn't Texas law, under George Bush and Rick Perry, allow age 30?

Same as Florida?
Posted by Halftrack
The Wild Blue Yonder
Member since Apr 2015
2763 posts
Posted on 12/27/16 at 12:46 pm to
A lot of insurers had a hand in writing the ACA. It is not as unpopular with insurers as it may seem.

I think that enforcement is unpopular with insurers, but not the subsidies. If given the choice, I think we will see stricter enforcement of the requirement to have insurance instead of the signup right before you need it routine.

Other this that, I am betting it stays largely intact.
Posted by LSURussian
Member since Feb 2005
126942 posts
Posted on 12/27/16 at 12:57 pm to
If the ACA is repealed on day 1, the implementation date of the repeal will be pushed out 2 or 3 years, enough time for a mulligan plan to be hashed out and passed.
Posted by Bestbank Tiger
Premium Member
Member since Jan 2005
70851 posts
Posted on 12/27/16 at 7:15 pm to
quote:

If the ACA is repealed on day 1, the implementation date of the repeal will be pushed out 2 or 3 years, enough time for a mulligan plan to be hashed out and passed.


That would likely tank the stocks though, as it would throw a lot of uncertainty into the equation. Ideally the new plan would come quickly so investors could place their bets.
Posted by Bestbank Tiger
Premium Member
Member since Jan 2005
70851 posts
Posted on 12/27/16 at 7:50 pm to
quote:

I think that enforcement is unpopular with insurers, but not the subsidies. If given the choice, I think we will see stricter enforcement of the requirement to have insurance instead of the signup right before you need it routine.


The mandate is the most hated part.

What I would do is have a provision where if you were enrolled in a qualified health plan or sharing ministry in 2015 or 2016, your condition is not considered to be preexisting. Going forward, it's not preexisting if you were enrolled at the time of diagnosis. To keep people from waiting until they're sick, you impose a 3% penalty on the claim payout for each month the policyholder was uninsured in the past 3 years.

They also need to repeal the essential coverage mandates. Those are a yuuuuuuge cost driver.
Posted by tlsu15
Capital of Texas
Member since Aug 2011
10010 posts
Posted on 12/28/16 at 10:28 am to
quote:

When ACA is repealed on day one


You don't know how this works, do you.
Posted by tlsu15
Capital of Texas
Member since Aug 2011
10010 posts
Posted on 12/28/16 at 10:35 am to
quote:

no. age 18 then their arse is cut off. quit babying people.


Health insurance isn't babying people, it's protecting them.

I'm a person who benefited greatly from this clause. I dropped out of college at age 21. I worked a job making less than 30K a year with no health insurance until age 24. I now have a job where I receive health insurance through work at a fraction of the cost. Under the old law, I would have either had to get on the government teet to insure myself or run the risk of getting medical bills I would never be able to afford in the case of an emergency.

It's a low cost high reward addition that is popular with a vast majority of people in this country. It has NOTHING to do with babying someone.
Posted by DrEdgeLSU
Baton Rouge, LA
Member since Dec 2006
8164 posts
Posted on 12/28/16 at 3:31 pm to
"Dumping millions off the health insurance rolls with no replacement will guarantee that mid-term elections will destroy the GOP majorities"

Repealing the ACA will not "dump millions off" of anything. Will some people drop coverage with no threat of penalty? Yes. Will others drop coverage because the subsidies disappear? Yes. But nobody will be "dumped."

Just like the entire ACA will not be repealed.
Posted by matthew25
Member since Jun 2012
9425 posts
Posted on 12/28/16 at 8:19 pm to
You've never met anyone with a pre-existing?

You've never met anyone with no insurance through their workplace?

They will be dumped in Mississippi and there is no alternative, except the Ole Miss ER in Jackson, and then negotiate payment terms with Ole Miss.

Our insurance commissioner tried to put together an exchange, outlined by Gov. Hayley Barbour, but was stopped by current Gov. Bryant.
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