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Message
re: Time to sell or short Apple IMO
Posted on 5/10/15 at 5:13 pm to TheHiddenFlask
Posted on 5/10/15 at 5:13 pm to TheHiddenFlask
quote:
I'm not upset about not buying and holding AAPL because my portfolio returns have been better than AAPL every year but one for the last 7 years.
That kind of a portfolio return is something a hedge fund manager would be proud of. How many stocks did you have in your portfolio? What was its Sharpe Ratio, Beta, Alpha?
1
Posted on 5/11/15 at 10:17 am to euphemus
My returns are great, but all other stats are terrible. Definitely could not run a fund like I run my trading account.
I only hold 3 stocks (maximum) at a time. Usually at least one is very thinly traded. Beta is usually over 2, but can be over +-10 when I'm making a derivatives trade. The one year I missed, I was down pretty badly, but that was the year I had about 6 months where my trades had to go through an SEC clearance process, which limited my tactical trading a lot.
I made a small fortune buying APC calls during the DWH massacre and I ended up holding a lot of the stock after that. Most of my big returns have been through options trades, because those are the ones I'm most sure about. Virtually all of my big trades have been posted on here over the past 7 years, so I doubt anyone who has been reading this board for a long time would doubt that performance.
I only hold 3 stocks (maximum) at a time. Usually at least one is very thinly traded. Beta is usually over 2, but can be over +-10 when I'm making a derivatives trade. The one year I missed, I was down pretty badly, but that was the year I had about 6 months where my trades had to go through an SEC clearance process, which limited my tactical trading a lot.
I made a small fortune buying APC calls during the DWH massacre and I ended up holding a lot of the stock after that. Most of my big returns have been through options trades, because those are the ones I'm most sure about. Virtually all of my big trades have been posted on here over the past 7 years, so I doubt anyone who has been reading this board for a long time would doubt that performance.
Posted on 5/11/15 at 10:52 am to TheHiddenFlask
I'm up over 400% in my portfolio despite having a year where I lost 40%. I Personally know 2 other posters on this board who have had returns as or more impressive than me. Beating the market when you don't have to answer to capital controls or investors is done by small investors all the time. It takes real talent when you are trying to do it with a billion dollars.
Posted on 5/11/15 at 2:44 pm to TheHiddenFlask
I would love to know how you do so well Hidden.. I could stand to learn a few things from you.
Posted on 5/11/15 at 4:07 pm to TheHiddenFlask
quote:
I'm up over 400% in my portfolio despite having a year where I lost 40%. I Personally know 2 other posters on this board who have had returns as or more impressive than me
Well damn son! Nicely done.
I guess I'll have to eat crow. I thought I was kickin' butt with 10% for 10 years, but apparently I'm not as good as I thought
In my weak defense, I would say that I'm not taking on that much risk as you seem to and own stocks, ETFs, and funds that weather bear markets far above average.
In any case, if you're willing to share, I'd be very interested to know what criteria/strategies you use.
Posted on 5/11/15 at 4:56 pm to Ole War Skule
quote:
In any case, if you're willing to share, I'd be very interested to know what criteria/strategies you use.
He uses options.
If you have the understanding, money and balls, you can make a shitload of money.
Even fairly basic collar strategies can pay dividends. We use them all the time managing our companies risk exposure but I haven't built the capital where I'm comfortable enough to start with my own funds.
Posted on 5/11/15 at 5:10 pm to STLhog
I'm aware he uses options as well as I do also but I'm not very good with them yet.
Posted on 5/11/15 at 5:20 pm to b-rab2
quote:
I'm aware he uses options as well as I do also but I'm not very good with them yet.
I've played around with them in very basic strategies over the last 2 years, but I don't have the skills or experience to risk any substantial amount in them.
I understand the basics, but that's about it.
ETA: and saying he did it trading options leaves it pretty much wide open...there are sooooo many ways to do that, so very, very conservative, some crazy as hell.
This post was edited on 5/11/15 at 5:25 pm
Posted on 5/11/15 at 5:38 pm to Ole War Skule
Just learn to spoof the market.
Set up a margin account and start trading S&P mini futures.
Ask the market down with huge sell orders, setup "cancel when close" orders and when it comes down, bid accordingly, buy low and sell on the way up. Just make sure your sell orders never get filled.
Classic spoof trading to get rich right there.
*May or may not be legal.
Set up a margin account and start trading S&P mini futures.
Ask the market down with huge sell orders, setup "cancel when close" orders and when it comes down, bid accordingly, buy low and sell on the way up. Just make sure your sell orders never get filled.
Classic spoof trading to get rich right there.
*May or may not be legal.
This post was edited on 5/11/15 at 5:40 pm
Posted on 5/11/15 at 6:08 pm to b-rab2
I'm not some kind of oracle. If I was I would be doing this professionally. I just avoid the temptation of needing to be in a big trade all the time and I have been lucky to a large extent. I have been riding a great bull market on the way up and have avoided some of the pitfalls along the way. My volatility is all over the place and I don't invest my retirement account (401k) like this. This is just the fund I trade for fun in. My returns would be nowhere near this if I cared about he account going to zero tomorrow.
Posted on 5/11/15 at 6:29 pm to Ole War Skule
My secret for options is that I use them only when I feel insanely confident and I make big leveraged bets on those. I usually do this 3 or 4 times a year. If I do 4 trades, I usually lose it all on 2, break even on 1, and go 15x on the last one.
I have had 1/4 of my capital in AIG SINCE 2011, which is my best "risk to return" investment in my history, but it's actually dragging my total return down. It's certainly the pick in most proud of and it will be a sad day when I sell it.
I usually have 10-15 stocks I want to own and look for good entry points. I'll often buy in on an "investment" and then add a strategic trade if I think it's a ridiculous move down or I see the possibility of a short squeeze. A perfect example is MHR in 2011. I owned them as an investment at $4, bought in as a trade at $6, sold my trade at $8, bought back in after a stupid accounting firm error dropped the price 50% ($4) and sold out completely at $8. I still own a warrant dividend from this whole process. I never jump in with both feet because there is always the chance it goes lower. I missed this opportunity with EXXI because I got scared and it cost me a 75% return on a 2 month trade. I learned that having too many trades in 1 segment makes my hand shaky, so I'll never do that again. Instead of showing a nice gain, I'm still in the red on this thing.
I think my calls on OUTR in the past few months have been insanely accurate by any standards. Pull up my posts and I think you will see what I mean.
There are some trades that I don't want to disclose for various reasons, but a poster here can vouch for an excellent stock pick I shared with him in the past few months. Invest with 25% of your capital if you like it, later on some deep out of the money calls if you love it and be ready to lose that 10%. The good news is: I you are right on the investment and wrong on the timing of the trade, you should break even. If you are right on both, you hit a home run. I you are wrong on both..... Just don't be wrong on both.
I have had 1/4 of my capital in AIG SINCE 2011, which is my best "risk to return" investment in my history, but it's actually dragging my total return down. It's certainly the pick in most proud of and it will be a sad day when I sell it.
I usually have 10-15 stocks I want to own and look for good entry points. I'll often buy in on an "investment" and then add a strategic trade if I think it's a ridiculous move down or I see the possibility of a short squeeze. A perfect example is MHR in 2011. I owned them as an investment at $4, bought in as a trade at $6, sold my trade at $8, bought back in after a stupid accounting firm error dropped the price 50% ($4) and sold out completely at $8. I still own a warrant dividend from this whole process. I never jump in with both feet because there is always the chance it goes lower. I missed this opportunity with EXXI because I got scared and it cost me a 75% return on a 2 month trade. I learned that having too many trades in 1 segment makes my hand shaky, so I'll never do that again. Instead of showing a nice gain, I'm still in the red on this thing.
I think my calls on OUTR in the past few months have been insanely accurate by any standards. Pull up my posts and I think you will see what I mean.
There are some trades that I don't want to disclose for various reasons, but a poster here can vouch for an excellent stock pick I shared with him in the past few months. Invest with 25% of your capital if you like it, later on some deep out of the money calls if you love it and be ready to lose that 10%. The good news is: I you are right on the investment and wrong on the timing of the trade, you should break even. If you are right on both, you hit a home run. I you are wrong on both..... Just don't be wrong on both.
This post was edited on 5/11/15 at 6:32 pm
Posted on 5/12/15 at 10:55 am to Sho Nuff
I visit this board occasionally and didn't see the bump until the day I responded.
And I check the price of apple about as often, once every week or two.
And I check the price of apple about as often, once every week or two.
Posted on 5/12/15 at 11:50 am to TheHiddenFlask
quote:
I think my calls on OUTR in the past few months have been insanely accurate by any standards.
quote:
EXXI
Posted on 5/12/15 at 9:38 pm to Tiger n Miami AU83
Shorting a well run company with a spectacular balance sheet is pretty tough. I think the overall market breaks out to the upside very soon. Tomorrow is your opportunity to cover.
After the move up it will be a much better opportunity to sell or short. AAPL is probably not the best company for that but it will get sucked down in an overall market correction.
After the move up it will be a much better opportunity to sell or short. AAPL is probably not the best company for that but it will get sucked down in an overall market correction.
Posted on 5/13/15 at 4:58 am to Tiger n Miami AU83
quote:Taken FWIW
Tiger n Miami AU83
IMO
Posted on 5/13/15 at 5:02 am to Tiger n Miami AU83
quote:
Time to ... short Apple IMO
quote:Nice
I check the price of apple about ... once every week or two.
Posted on 5/13/15 at 6:12 am to NC_Tigah
quote:
NC_Tigah
I second that
Good way to get your arse handed to you.
Posted on 7/9/15 at 12:34 pm to Tiger n Miami AU83
126.55 to 121.54 at the midway point for the 6 month period. 4% return in 3 months.
So far so good as I expected (even though no one else did).
Will check back in in a month or two.
So far so good as I expected (even though no one else did).
Will check back in in a month or two.
Posted on 7/9/15 at 12:35 pm to Tiger n Miami AU83
Should also note sales of Apple watches not looking good going forward right now (also as predicted).
Also, hit my other prediction concerning Samsungs new Galaxy Phones.
2/2 thus far.
Also, hit my other prediction concerning Samsungs new Galaxy Phones.
2/2 thus far.
This post was edited on 7/9/15 at 12:37 pm
Posted on 7/9/15 at 2:18 pm to Tiger n Miami AU83
quote:
Should also note sales of Apple watches not looking good going forward right now (also as predicted).
Also, hit my other prediction concerning Samsungs new Galaxy Phones.
2/2 thus far.
Link on the AppleWatch? I know the article you are talking about and it is 100% clickbait.
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