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re: Time to buy some XOM(Oil stock discussions)?
Posted on 8/22/15 at 3:57 pm to TigerTatorTots
Posted on 8/22/15 at 3:57 pm to TigerTatorTots
Higher risk, higher reward I hope. There's nothing wrong with the company from what I can tell. Just oversold.
0
Posted on 8/23/15 at 12:18 pm to TigerTatorTots
Any ideas why CVX and XOM are getting hammered worse during this downturn than they did in either the 80's (oil price drop plus Black Monday) or 2008 (financial crisis and also a big drop in oil)?
Just looking at monthlies (caveat) CVX is down 42% from recent highs and XOM is down 30%. During the 1980's both stocks increased in value more than 2x not even including dividends. In 2008-2009 CVX fell 39% and XOM fell 29%.
At risk of not timing the bottom perfectly I will initiate a position in each of these tomorrow.
Also picking up some EOG, who is my favorite of the shale players. Their stock is down 37% from recent highs.
ETA: Executed on the blip down 8/24. Time for a wild ride.
XOM 67.92
CVX 70.50
EOG 69.82
Just looking at monthlies (caveat) CVX is down 42% from recent highs and XOM is down 30%. During the 1980's both stocks increased in value more than 2x not even including dividends. In 2008-2009 CVX fell 39% and XOM fell 29%.
At risk of not timing the bottom perfectly I will initiate a position in each of these tomorrow.
Also picking up some EOG, who is my favorite of the shale players. Their stock is down 37% from recent highs.
ETA: Executed on the blip down 8/24. Time for a wild ride.
XOM 67.92
CVX 70.50
EOG 69.82
This post was edited on 8/24/15 at 9:16 am
Posted on 8/23/15 at 3:05 pm to Bayou Tiger
I'm probably going to hold off until Jan, oil hasn't hit bottom yet, the word I am hearing is 30$ wti and 40$ Brent this winter.
Posted on 8/23/15 at 3:59 pm to GREENHEAD22
$40 brent, and slightly over that for premium to brent is about as low as I think it goes, barring any new developments.
I don't think I'm going to attempt to time it exactly, but at some point it won't make much more sense for me to wait, especially if I'm buying a dividend payer.
Good thread here. Some guys that really have their head around oil.
I do smell opportunity.
I don't think I'm going to attempt to time it exactly, but at some point it won't make much more sense for me to wait, especially if I'm buying a dividend payer.
Good thread here. Some guys that really have their head around oil.
I do smell opportunity.
Posted on 8/23/15 at 10:43 pm to Iowa Golfer
quote:is MPC not the BEST value on the market right now? A refiner that was beaten down 9% last Friday due to panic alone...
I do smell opportunity
P/E is around 8. Any idea what its forward P/E is?
Posted on 8/24/15 at 4:51 am to bayoubengals88
You guys got some balls to be touching oil
What's the fundamental or catalyst that make oil stocks appealing? I mean we could be on our way to $30 a barrel.
What's the fundamental or catalyst that make oil stocks appealing? I mean we could be on our way to $30 a barrel.
Posted on 8/25/15 at 9:17 am to TOKEN
Have we seen bottom of XOM, CVX, etc?
Posted on 8/25/15 at 9:20 am to CidCock
Not quite yet. My opinion. But if you bought now, and waited, you'd be fine in the long term.
Posted on 8/25/15 at 9:23 am to Iowa Golfer
quote:
Not quite yet. My opinion. But if you bought now, and waited, you'd be fine in the long term.
I've been lurking on here and reading, haven't put anything significant in on my own (not counting IRA, mutual funds, etc).
Thinking of buying 20 shares of XOM, just to have fun with and hopefully make a few bucks by year end. Thoughts?
Posted on 8/25/15 at 9:24 am to CidCock
My thought is that end is short sighted.
Posted on 8/25/15 at 9:25 am to Iowa Golfer
quote:
My thought is that end is short sighted.
Fair enough, thanks for advice. I am just getting my feet wet.
Posted on 8/25/15 at 9:25 am to TOKEN
quote:
What's the fundamental or catalyst that make oil stocks appealing? I mean we could be on our way to $30 a barrel.
I'm retiring in 30 years and buying on the way down.
And we are on our way already.
Posted on 8/25/15 at 10:38 am to CidCock
You don't buy XOM to sell a few months later. You buy XOM to hold and reinvest dividends
Posted on 8/25/15 at 11:22 am to TigerTatorTots
quote:
You don't buy XOM to sell a few months later. You buy XOM to hold and reinvest dividends
or any other MAJORs that pay dividends. Buy and hold.
Posted on 8/25/15 at 11:45 am to Fat Bastard
After entering yesterday, I plan to hold at least three years unless share prices go up 50% or something in the meantime.
Posted on 8/25/15 at 11:56 am to Iowa Golfer
quote:
I've always maintained very, very conservative equity investment philosophies. It isn't often when portfolio insurance breaks even, and that isn't the strategy for insuring gains in any event. Or insurance in general, notwithstanding the comments on here about cheapest is always best. But I digress.
Not being able to time the top of VIX, I sold to close yesterday at a strike of $26.00, which paid for my last two years of insurance, and gave me a bit of cash.
It's been a tough year. I went through this morning and I'm up unrealized gains of 14.45%, but realized gains, which is really the only number that counts, is slightly above 12%. The only reason 12% is at 12%, is insurance. Period. If I backed out net cost and gain, I'd be level for the YTD.
This is my after tax account. Obviously the retirement account I have at my business, managed by "experts", hasn't fared as well. Partially my fault as I went in to sme income funds likely too early.
In any event, I stand by now looking for capitulation, mostly in the oil sector, but am open to ideas in other areas.
The technical guys can't seem to determine a technical bottom, so Monday should prove interesting.
Having an extremely well balanced portfolio, my hope is we drop another 25% at least. I'm trying to get my head around how much VIX I could collect, and a decent point to sell about 25-40% of my metals at that point.
Isn't VIX just a volatility metric. How does buying options in VIX act as insurance?
Posted on 8/25/15 at 12:31 pm to Fat Bastard
quote:
Fat Bastard
I'm pretty clueless about a lot of stuff. So, I have a Robinhood account, say I purchased 50 shares of XOM through the app. Are dividends distrubuted annually to that account?
Are their only dividends if thier is profit that quarter?
For argument sake, say the stock goes from $73 to $83 between now and year end and I have 50 shares. I have gained $500, correct? $500 in dividends?
Posted on 8/25/15 at 1:51 pm to CidCock
quote:
For argument sake, say the stock goes from $73 to $83 between now and year end and I have 50 shares. I have gained $500, correct? $500 in dividends?
You've gained $500, plus the quarterly dividend paid in November, I think. With 50 shares, your dividend will be roughly $36.50: 50 shares x quarterly dividend of $.73.
Posted on 8/25/15 at 1:55 pm to CidCock
quote:
I'm pretty clueless about a lot of stuff. So, I have a Robinhood account, say I purchased 50 shares of XOM through the app. Are dividends distrubuted annually to that account?
Are their only dividends if thier is profit that quarter?
For argument sake, say the stock goes from $73 to $83 between now and year end and I have 50 shares. I have gained $500, correct? $500 in dividends?
Dividends are generally distributed quarterly. If you purchased 50 shares of Exxon and the price goes up 10 dollars a share, you have $500 in unrealized gains. These are not dividends. Dividends are just sums of money paid to shareholders on a regular, and typically predictable basis. For example, Exxon will pay you approximately 73 cents per share every 3 months. There is no rule that dividends HAVE to be distributed, but a lot of the blue chips choose this as a means of giving cash back to shareholders, who then have the opportunity to either reinvest that money, or cash it out.
Posted on 8/25/15 at 2:53 pm to LSUtoOmaha
quote:
Isn't VIX just a volatility metric. How does buying options in VIX act as insurance?
Google it. It's not an exact science, but VIX calls are moer effective, and less expensive than protective puts on indexes.
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