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Thoughts on timberland investment

Posted on 10/3/16 at 6:55 pm
Posted by nogoodjr
Member since Feb 2006
795 posts
Posted on 10/3/16 at 6:55 pm
Thoughts on these numbers.
Tract of timberland. No development potential. Strictly timber investment. Cost will be around 300k. Respected forester has appraised timber and expects a total return of 450k over the next 15 years. So roughly an averaged return of 30k/year or 10% annualized. After 10 years, the land has some residual value but wouldn't be an easy sale. Maybe 80-100k.

Thoughts??
Posted by KillTheGophers
Member since Jan 2016
6209 posts
Posted on 10/3/16 at 7:21 pm to
Someone woulda already snapped it up if it was any good.

Need acerage
Need boundary info
Need Parish
Is it listed with realtor
What about mineral rights
Who does the forestor work for
What about engressand egress
Any environmental concerns

If you move forward get a repacted forestor that works for you a get a lender that knows timber, reach out to your state forestry association, get an attorney that deals with timber tract sales, get a surveyor to flag your property lines, post property, get a phase 1 environmental at a minimum

Posted by KillTheGophers
Member since Jan 2016
6209 posts
Posted on 10/3/16 at 7:24 pm to
Also, If you are in LA I can help pit you in touch with all the folks you need to give you solid counsel.....CPA, attorney, timber land lender, forestor, appraiser, surveyor, etc.
Posted by GREENHEAD22
Member since Nov 2009
19582 posts
Posted on 10/3/16 at 7:35 pm to
What parish?
Posted by TigerTatorTots
The Safeshore
Member since Jul 2009
80755 posts
Posted on 10/3/16 at 8:40 pm to
How old is the timber? I was told by LA Dept Ag Forester that timber is barely getting $1,000/acre nowadays. I don't know how old of timber he was talking about though.

Posted by nogoodjr
Member since Feb 2006
795 posts
Posted on 10/3/16 at 8:57 pm to
quote:

Also, If you are in LA I can help pit you in touch with all the folks you need to give you solid counsel.....CPA, attorney, timber land lender, forestor, appraiser, surveyor, etc.


Very kind offer. I have purchased and owned timber. Not an amateur. More interested the that expected return. The forester (who I trust) expects one more pulpwood thinning, one chip and saw/saw timber mix thinning, and one saw timber clear cut. Timber is so low right now those numbers could be slightly off. But lots of room for upside as well.

Stand is 20 yo pine with 1st thinning completed at 16 yo. Above average soil mix.
Posted by Ric Flair
Charlotte
Member since Oct 2005
13649 posts
Posted on 10/3/16 at 9:14 pm to
If you make 5% a year investing 300K in the stock market, you would have 630K after 15 years.

4% a year is 546k, which is around your best case scenario (450k + land value), which barely beats inflation historically.

Doesn't sound like the timber is a good investment.
Posted by nogoodjr
Member since Feb 2006
795 posts
Posted on 10/3/16 at 9:22 pm to
Kinda my thoughts Ric Flair. I bought some timber in the past and don't mind long term investments but I purchased it at a better price point.

If timber prices increased significantly during that time it could change the equation.
Posted by baldona
Florida
Member since Feb 2016
20386 posts
Posted on 10/4/16 at 7:37 am to
So you are saying its about 300 acres you are going to buy for $1,000/ acre and then the land is going to go down to $200-300 acre after its cut? I don't know anything about Louisiana land prices but under $500/acre is absurdly cheap for land, I have a hard time any land tract that big would be that cheap? Or am I missing something.

I know timber land prices drop drastically after it is cut, but I'd have a hard time making any investment where the principal is going to drop that much. I would also think in 10-15 years it would be worth more than what you are thinking.

300 acres you could also lease for hunting. No idea what the price in your area is, but over 10-15 years I'd think you could get at least $25,000.
This post was edited on 10/4/16 at 7:38 am
Posted by bayoudude
Member since Dec 2007
24948 posts
Posted on 10/4/16 at 8:20 am to
Hell $1000/acre is really cheap. I had trouble finding anything under $1500-2000 an acre when i was looking for hunting/timber property. Ended up not pulling the trigger as i didn't find the right tract that had decent access and was still far enough out in the sticks.
Posted by LPTReb
Member since Jul 2016
467 posts
Posted on 10/4/16 at 11:15 am to
A few things to consider:

Is the location somewhere that would be desirable for hunting leases? If so, what is the going rate?

Property tax rate?

Is access a huge problem or something? Or is it a swamp? That seems mighty low for the dirt, but I know nothing about the particular property.

Is it in an area with a high risk of hurricane damage? Pine beetle damage? Catastrophic loss is always a possibility in timber.

ROI seems mighty low based on the numbers you provided. Especially if the land is undesirable and there is little opportunity to sell in the event that you have an emergency and need liquidity.
Posted by GuyonaBuffalo
Member since Jan 2014
639 posts
Posted on 10/4/16 at 1:27 pm to
quote:

$1,000/acre nowadays


Yep sold 80 acres last year for 80k. It was either sell it or lose it because the majority of it was borderline too big for the mill. Saved a few feed trees and a few of the trees surrounding those feed trees but other than that clear cut. Going to be some serious deer habitat though. Less than 100 yards from the big black river.
Posted by BigD13
French Settlement La
Member since Sep 2013
2513 posts
Posted on 10/4/16 at 7:34 pm to
Let me put it this way, you buy your 300 acres and make all that money, after you cut timber I will gladly give you 100k
I don't GAF where it's at

Your 300 acres will at least be worth 300k in 15 years, no doubt.
Posted by GREENHEAD22
Member since Nov 2009
19582 posts
Posted on 10/4/16 at 8:18 pm to
Again what parish, this matters.
Posted by nogoodjr
Member since Feb 2006
795 posts
Posted on 10/4/16 at 9:01 pm to
I never said it was 300 acres. I agree, most clear land in north LA is worth 800-1000 per acre but not an easy sale.

I am being vague because I haven't made a decision on the property.

Thanks for everyone's input.
Posted by baldona
Florida
Member since Feb 2016
20386 posts
Posted on 10/5/16 at 7:32 am to
quote:

I never said it was 300 acres


Well that's kinda a big deal. I don't know why you can't be more specific. Most people agree you will get about $1000/ acre for a big cut. If you are only talking about 100 acres and paying $3000/ acre then no I wouldn't buy this for the investment. If its 300 acres, then it may possibly make sense. But I would by no means pay $3000/ acre for an investment hoping to make $1000/ acre in 10 years.

It's also not 10% annualized return. That implies that in 1 year its worth 330k, year two 366k, etc.
This post was edited on 10/5/16 at 7:39 am
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