I've run the numbers several different ways and I plan to refinance in the next few weeks from a 30yr @ 4.375% to a 15yr (I'm 2yrs into the 30yr).
I looked at the return on investment and even when taking into account the taxes, I've decided on the 15yr refi.
Refinancing saves me $6,000 over the life of the loan when looking at NPV with a 3% discount rate. I know people are expecting inflation in the future and I agree, but I already invest the amount that I want to invest and any excess cash would be held as cash likely earning only 1% for the next several years. I plan to pay the house off in 8-10yrs and move once it's paid.
I know there are a million ways to slice it, but at the end of the day there is not an obvious winner and it really just depends on everone's individual situation.
eta: my return on investment calculations are based on maintaining the current payment no matter if it is a 15 or 30yr loan. Currently pay 167% of principal due.
This post was edited on 10/5 at 12:15 pm