re: Official Erin Energy (ERN) thread

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what's the consensus concerning whether or not this thing is going to back up or stay stagnant?

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I think that depends on your timeframe. When it will recover back to $8+ is anyone's guess, in my opinion. In a few (or several) months, I believe the stock will be above its current price, but I won't try to give a price or even a range. There are too many variables, I think, for that.

If you are looking for positive catalysts for 2015, there are institutions that will be buying (whether voluntarily for mutual or hedge funds or involuntarily for ETFs) soon, Oyo 7 production rate will be announced, work on (and completion of) Oyo 9 will have to start sometime, work will begin on the exploration well for the Miocene, and test results should come back for the other leases to roughly determine their reserves. 2Q and 3Q earnings will also come out, but I don't expect much positive reaction. I think everyone's expectations are too high for the quarterly earnings right now. 2Q may break even or produce a loss, 3Q will either break even or produce a small profit.

I'm invested long term because I think the company will succeed with its plan to produce good profits one day. The CEO isn't squeaky clean, which is a cause for concern (but also technically an asset over there), so I have done a lot of research on ERN. Examples of my exhausting research has included checking to see that the drilling rig and FPSO are actually contracted to ERN, examining the operations of the other nearby energy companies to see the plausibility of a deal with one of them for the Miocene operations, and even reading about accounting rules as to why 2.4 billion barrels of reserves are not listed on the books (the SEC says untapped reserves can only be on the books if they can economically be tapped in 5 years, and obviously ERN can't afford to do so alone). I'll post my research on those last two one day on here, but I have been too long-winded with this post already.

If anyone manages to wade through this wall of text, I hope it proves helpful.

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below $4 today and no talk?

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I'm considering getting back in for the first time since last July.

We're at the equivalent of .65/share, which is right at my original entry point long ago.

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We're at the equivalent of .65/share, which is right at my original entry point long ago.

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What a far cry from flirting with $9 pps we saw seemingly a month ago. Where is IG to give us some hope...

He picked a hell of a week!

Also, not sure if it is determined short sellers or market makers, but it looks like someone is trying to take out as many stop loss orders as possible. Strong pushes today to get from $4.10 to $3.90 and $3.90 to $3.75. Those pushes- and the resulting activated stop loss orders- account for about 2/3 of today's volume.

Someone's having fun with the price. I just wish it was me.

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Definitely not taking an opportunity. I sold out completely at $7, then made the mistake of buying back in and lost some profits. Still wish I had bought that $5 stake.

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My bad, I meant the opportunity to buy more now since it's below $5, not back then.

I think we all wished we had bought more back then and then sold at $8. One day it'll get back up there, and I can up my post count with lots of dancing banana posts.

I'm selectively buying more.

I took out my original investment a while back. Probably too early, but I took it out. Without getting into specific numbers, I have a significant position in ERN as part of my speculative portion of my portfolio. I don't see this changing. My targets are still $12 and $30. Somewhat delayed, but I never promised getting rich quick on this one, I only promised this to be a decent bet as a penny stock. I think it has been that at least.

Nothing has changed fundamentally. The risk has been decreased slightly. The game here is still Miocene.