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Started By
Message
Look into your crystal ball: your thoughts on the stock market
Posted on 11/22/15 at 1:23 pm
Posted on 11/22/15 at 1:23 pm
In early July of this year, I invested approximately 650K through a financial management group that my CPA belongs to.
Within six weeks, the value of my portfolio stood at 487K. Today it's at around 510K.
I'm estimating--guessing--that it could take up to 4 years for my portfolio to return to its initial value.
For those of you who study and follow the market closely, does my estimate seem reasonable--or wildly optimistic, pessimistic, etc.
TIA.
Within six weeks, the value of my portfolio stood at 487K. Today it's at around 510K.
I'm estimating--guessing--that it could take up to 4 years for my portfolio to return to its initial value.
For those of you who study and follow the market closely, does my estimate seem reasonable--or wildly optimistic, pessimistic, etc.
TIA.
8
Posted on 11/22/15 at 1:50 pm to Mars duMorgue
Without knowing what it was that you invested in, how would we know, or even be able to guess?
Posted on 11/22/15 at 2:06 pm to Mars duMorgue
Jesus, wth did you invest in??
Posted on 11/22/15 at 2:27 pm to TigerDeBaiter
quote:
Jesus, wth did you invest in??
One big loser was a Fidelity biotech fund. And then, one day in July, my CPA called me up and said my Apple stock lost 49K that day.
I figured I'd give the financial advisors a year or two before making any decisions on their value.
However, if I'm still 100K or more down from my original investment in June 2016, I'd think about taking my money and just putting it into index funds, save the $8–$10K per year management fees I'm paying the advisory group.
Posted on 11/22/15 at 2:28 pm to Mars duMorgue
Sounds like you need to fire your manager and get a new one
Posted on 11/22/15 at 2:29 pm to Porker Face
If your manager can only make money in good market environments why do you need one? Anyone can do that, it's called VOO
Posted on 11/22/15 at 2:48 pm to Mars duMorgue
Well, you bought at near the market's all-time high and shortly after that in August it took a deep plunge. But the good news is that it has recovered almost to where it was in July. If you're in it for the long haul, i.e., you're twenty years or more away from retirement there's nothing to worry about. Remember, you haven't lost anything until you sell and lock in your losses.
Posted on 11/22/15 at 3:23 pm to Mars duMorgue
Two words: put options
Posted on 11/22/15 at 3:25 pm to Mars duMorgue
On a portfolio of that size, you should have been appropriately hedged.
Posted on 11/22/15 at 3:32 pm to Mars duMorgue
Three words: dollar cost averaging. No reason to put that large sum of money in the stock market at one time. It will probably make it back to where it was but it will take time
Posted on 11/22/15 at 4:04 pm to yellowhammer2098
quote:
No reason to put that large sum of money in the stock market at one time.
I had approximately 100K in two different domestic bond funs and one high yield bond fund.
My initial allocation on 6/25/15 was:
• 54% domestic large cap
• 13% domestic small cap
• 15% domestic bond
• 10% high yield bond
• 4% international equity
• 4% emerging market equity
Looking back, I may have allocated too aggressively, but not terribly so.
My guesstimate is that it will take 4-5 years for my portfolio to climb back to its original value of $645K. Thoughts?
Posted on 11/22/15 at 4:09 pm to Layabout
quote:
Well, you bought at near the market's all-time high and shortly after that in August it took a deep plunge.
Long story short.
quote:
If you're in it for the long haul, i.e., you're twenty years or more away from retirement
The way my portfolio is going I just may be 20 years from retirement!
I'm in my 60s, but fortunately I have other assets that render me not entirely reliant on this particular portfolio's performance.
My real question though is whether the advisory group is worth it. I'm wondering if I might not have been just as well off putting my money into a few stock and bond index funds.
Posted on 11/22/15 at 5:57 pm to Mars duMorgue
quote:
My real question though is whether the advisory group is worth it. I'm wondering if I might not have been just as well off putting my money into a few stock and bond index funds.
From what I've read, it seems like really really bad "advice" so far. You never throw that much money in at once. DCA is a must. I know hindsight is 20/20, but it was fairly apparent the market was peaking IMO, even more of a case to DCA. The problem is your stuck with them unless you want to sell for loses.
I don't know what to tell you, personally I'm pretty bearish right now. I think we'll rise a bit into the end of the year and correct at least 15% by March. Just my opinion. Earning were artrocious this year, and buy backs were big. Seems like a red flag to me.
Posted on 11/22/15 at 6:01 pm to Mars duMorgue
quote:
One big loser was a Fidelity biotech fund. And then, one day in July, my CPA called me up and said my Apple stock lost 49K that day.
I figured I'd give the financial advisors a year or two before making any decisions on their value.
However, if I'm still 100K or more down from my original investment in June 2016, I'd think about taking my money and just putting it into index funds, save the $8–$10K per year management fees I'm paying the advisory group.
Ouch man, hope you didn't sell the apple, but I'd ditch the biotech personally. It's my opinion that that will come crashing down with increasing of interest rates and increased regulation. Not to mention, there's a lot of fraud out there.
Posted on 11/22/15 at 6:07 pm to TigerDeBaiter
quote:
$8–$10K per year management fees
This is concerning too. Go in and ask these assholes how they are going to earn your money back and how they are going to change strategy in this different market
Posted on 11/22/15 at 6:40 pm to Porker Face
quote:
Go in and ask these assholes how they are going to earn your money back and how they are going to change strategy in this different market
I've discussed the plunge in value (about 21% by my calculations) with my advisor. Together we made some adjustments to my portfolio, adjustments my advisor believes put us in a good position moving forward. We had this discussion in early October.
If my guesstimate is reasonably accurate, I can expect to pay between $30K–$40 for their services until the time my portfolio value climbs back to its original value of $645K.
My thought is to cut ties with these people in the next 15-20 month if I'm still far behind the original value. Then I'd put everything into some stock and bond index funds.
Posted on 11/22/15 at 8:57 pm to Mars duMorgue
quote:
My real question though is whether the advisory group is worth it. I'm wondering if I might not have been just as well off putting my money into a few stock and bond index funds.
As others have pointed out, it's not wise to dump a big pot of money into the market at one time. Your "advisors" should know this. I also question any advisor who puts a man in his 60s into the sort of volatile investments that they did. I'd consider suing them for malpractice. At the very least run like hell from those people.
Posted on 11/22/15 at 9:44 pm to Layabout
^this
Posted on 11/22/15 at 10:06 pm to Layabout
quote:THIS.
I also question any advisor who puts a man in his 60s into the sort of volatile investments that they did.
You're in your 60s, and they put you in a biotech fund (which, considering your losses, was probably a big position)? They either have no idea what they're doing, or they have something in the contract that says they get a healthy cut of your returns. If that is the case, they're just swinging for the fences with your portfolio. If it pays off, they win. If it doesn't, you're shafted and they still have the regular annual fees.
I recommend you take a good hard look at the compensation section of the agreement. If they take 1.5% of your portfolio or more in compensation annually, then I'd recommend pulling your money immediately.
Posted on 11/22/15 at 11:06 pm to Omada
Time honored rule of thumb: 100 - age = equity amount/bond amount
You should have had 60% bond.
Your advisors gave you only 15% bond.
You have a good case against their E & O policy. They will pay for your losses.
You should have had 60% bond.
Your advisors gave you only 15% bond.
You have a good case against their E & O policy. They will pay for your losses.
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