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Is Shake Shack (SHAK) the next Chipotle (CMG)?

Posted on 5/22/15 at 12:22 pm
Posted by Crescent Connection
Lafayette/Nola
Member since Jun 2008
2016 posts
Posted on 5/22/15 at 12:22 pm
Shake Shack trading at $93/share today. Chipotle was around that same price early 2010 and is currently trading at $623/share. And each location is worth $50M, compared to a Chipotle location at $10M. Insane. Anyone jumping on this train?

LINK
Posted by DaBeerz
Member since Sep 2004
16885 posts
Posted on 5/22/15 at 1:49 pm to
I think so, I'm jumping in next week. Going to sell a mutual fund and buy shak for the Roth
Posted by Civildawg
Member since May 2012
8547 posts
Posted on 5/22/15 at 2:06 pm to
I'm really tempted, but it only has like 60 stores open.
Posted by I Love Bama
Alabama
Member since Nov 2007
37693 posts
Posted on 5/22/15 at 2:35 pm to
Why are you tempted? It appears EXTREMELY overvalued.
Posted by DaBeerz
Member since Sep 2004
16885 posts
Posted on 5/22/15 at 3:17 pm to
People said the same thing about tesla. Danny Meyer is the restaurant king, I have faith they will expand appropriately and everyone loves the product
This post was edited on 5/22/15 at 3:19 pm
Posted by southernelite
Dallas
Member since Sep 2009
53140 posts
Posted on 5/22/15 at 3:21 pm to
Chipolte also had the luxury of learning and growing under the McDonalds brand before it went independent. Several of Chipotle's execs were pretty high up at McDonalds in the 90s
Posted by I Love Bama
Alabama
Member since Nov 2007
37693 posts
Posted on 5/22/15 at 4:15 pm to
quote:

People said the same thing about tesla


Like the Tesla CEO? Awful rebuttal
Posted by rintintin
Life is Life
Member since Nov 2008
16153 posts
Posted on 5/22/15 at 6:47 pm to
Who was it that made a thread about SHAK when it ipo'd? Said it very well could double in no time.

Then it doubled before it even opened to the public and everyone got scared saying it was overvalued. Well now it's doubled again.
Posted by Azazello
Member since Sep 2011
3182 posts
Posted on 5/22/15 at 7:40 pm to
I ate at one in DC. It was good but not great.
Posted by DaBeerz
Member since Sep 2004
16885 posts
Posted on 5/22/15 at 8:01 pm to
How is that an awful rebuttal. People were saying Tesla stock was overvalued because cars are so expensive and there were limited charging capabilities but stock keeps climbing.

Shak has huge growth capability but they are expanding smart and slow. Long term potential is high, look at red robin stock growth. This is a better product
Posted by lynxcat
Member since Jan 2008
24121 posts
Posted on 5/23/15 at 12:17 am to
Terrible example because you are comparing a technology company that makes cars to a natural burger joint...
Posted by thatguy777
br
Member since Feb 2007
2384 posts
Posted on 5/23/15 at 9:34 am to
I agree. About time to short this one
Posted by DaBeerz
Member since Sep 2004
16885 posts
Posted on 5/23/15 at 9:44 am to
I give up, some of you are ridiculous. Im comparing the stock performance based on its perceived value. I'm not comparing the freaking products but they are both boutique startup brands with limited market now that have cult followings who love the product. I think that will support a growing stock price.
Posted by kennypowers816
New Orleans
Member since Jan 2010
2443 posts
Posted on 5/27/15 at 5:14 pm to
quote:

I think so, I'm jumping in next week. Going to sell a mutual fund and buy shak for the Roth


Good thing you had to sell that mutual fund and couldn't get in until this week. SHAK down ~20% since OP.
Posted by DaBeerz
Member since Sep 2004
16885 posts
Posted on 5/27/15 at 6:31 pm to
Haven't had time yet, correction is good. I'm still going to buy in and hold long term
Posted by Blakely Bimbo
Member since Dec 2010
1183 posts
Posted on 5/28/15 at 8:12 am to
quote:

I ate at one in DC. It was good but not great.


I don't know much about them. Are they just serving units and you have to eat it outside? Do they have sitting facilities?

Posted by Bearded_Chow25
D-town Boogie
Member since Dec 2014
114 posts
Posted on 5/28/15 at 8:41 am to
I've never eaten at SHAK except for one time at an airport when I bought an overpriced milkshake.

It seems like the burger market is saturated. There are tons of competitors offering a similar product, which I see limiting their success and their route to be the next CMG.


CMG doesn't have many established competitors in the fast casual Mexican cuisine market, which I believe is why its had unprecedented growth in its market along with other factors.
Posted by Eric Nies Grind Time
Atlanta GA - ITP
Member since Sep 2012
24933 posts
Posted on 5/28/15 at 9:39 am to
I would have a hard time investing in a restaurant chain that I do not like.

The milk shakes are not even very good. Decent burger though. It just seems like a place that yuppies like to go to make themselves feel better about not eating at McDonalds.
Posted by AUtigerNOLA
New Orleans, LA
Member since Apr 2011
17107 posts
Posted on 5/28/15 at 10:23 am to
I doubt it will be anywhere near the success Chipotle is. Chiplote has the edge in which it offers different "healthier" products(burritos, tacos, etc) and its a little more unique than another burger chain. Just MO of course
This post was edited on 5/28/15 at 10:24 am
Posted by Haydo
DTX
Member since Jul 2011
2942 posts
Posted on 5/29/15 at 9:20 am to
quote:

I doubt it will be anywhere near the success Chipotle is. Chiplote has the edge in which it offers different "healthier" products(burritos, tacos, etc) and its a little more unique than another burger chain. Just MO of course


My thoughts exactly.
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