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Started By
Message
re: Is BOA a $70 stock?
Posted on 4/9/14 at 9:38 am to Cajun Revolution
Posted on 4/9/14 at 9:38 am to Cajun Revolution
quote:
You're soliciting advice from a bunch of people with no money or capital
0
Posted on 4/9/14 at 9:39 am to Cajun Revolution
For the record, this was a horseshite thread to begin with.
I hinestly had the same thought pattern as the guy who said that BOA Isn't a company.
I hinestly had the same thought pattern as the guy who said that BOA Isn't a company.
Posted on 4/9/14 at 9:41 am to Brotorious
I think there will be some people kicking themselves two or three years from now saying "Why didn't I buy BAC when it was $16.40/share two or three years ago?!?"
Full disclosure: I own shares in BAC.
Full disclosure: I own shares in BAC.
Posted on 4/9/14 at 9:46 am to LSURussian
quote:
I think there will be some people kicking themselves two or three years from now saying "Why didn't I buy BAC when it was $16.40/share two or three years ago?!?"
How long do you think the average american investor holds a single stock certificate nowadays before turning it over? I have no idea but I'd bet my savings it's less than one year.
Posted on 4/9/14 at 9:48 am to Cajun Revolution
quote:
How long do you think the average american investor holds a single stock certificate
What is this 1926? Stock certs??
Posted on 4/9/14 at 9:52 am to Cmlsu5618
quote:
I'd say there are probably less than 2 or 3 people on this board that could SOMEWHAT effectively analyze the statements of a bank as huge as BofA.
Being able to and having the time to do it are two different things.
Posted on 4/9/14 at 9:54 am to Cajun Revolution
quote:I have no idea either and your question is irrelevant as it applies to me.
How long do you think the average american investor holds a single stock certificate nowadays before turning it over?
BAC's revised capital plan was accepted by the Fed a couple of weeks ago and it included a dividend increase. When the BAC board announces the increase, we'll see a small pop in its price then. That will probably happen before mid-year.
Last month Warren Buffett said he's still pleased with Berkshire's $5 billion investment in BAC. I've heard he's pretty good at analyzing financial statements.....
Posted on 4/9/14 at 10:00 am to LSURussian
Good for your investment, Russian. Here is a handclap. Pause for clapping.
Thank You.
Thank You.
Posted on 4/9/14 at 10:06 am to Cajun Revolution
I'm starting to understand why you were banned.
Posted on 4/9/14 at 10:08 am to LSURussian
I was congratulating you. It sounds like a quality investment and you did your research.
Posted on 4/9/14 at 10:09 am to LSURussian
quote:
I think there will be some people kicking themselves two or three years from now saying "Why didn't I buy BAC when it was $16.40/share two or three years ago?!?"
Eh, that's a silly game to play. You could literally do that for hundreds of stocks (going either direction), and it's just hindsight bias.
Let me put it otherwise. If I go to my deathbed with my #1 regret being having missed a runup in Bank of America stock in the mid-2010s, I will consider that a successful life.
Posted on 4/9/14 at 10:21 am to Cold Cous Cous
quote:I'm not recommending anyone buy BAC. It won't make anyone a quick buck.
Eh, that's a silly game to play. You could literally do that for hundreds of stocks (going either direction), and it's just hindsight bias.
But to listen to criticism of BAC by someone who asks "how is it vested?' when the question makes no sense at all and also asks how long does the average person hold 'stock certificates?'
Well, those are not exactly knowledgeable questions.
I wrote the same thing on this board about GE when GE was under $10 in 2009. But I said '5 years' instead of '2 or 3 years.' I bought GE back then when others on this board were breathlessly proclaiming GE was going to be bankrupt in 5 years. That worked out pretty well for me.....
Posted on 4/9/14 at 10:27 am to LSURussian
quote:
I think there will be some people kicking themselves two or three years from now saying "Why didn't I buy BAC when it was $16.40/share two or three years ago?!?"
I'm still bruised from kicking myself for not buying it when it was $6 two years ago. I don't know if I can handle any more....
Posted on 4/9/14 at 10:30 am to Cmlsu5618
quote:
I'd say there are probably less than 2 or 3 people on this board that could SOMEWHAT effectively analyze the statements of a bank as huge as BofA.
I'd say less than that. I'd also suggest that even the experts struggle at this as evidenced items overlooked in the past such as swaps. For a BoA, you'd really need to analyze the financial strength of every counter party they have in certain arrangements.
Posted on 4/9/14 at 10:31 am to LSURussian
quote:
ut to listen to criticism of BAC by someone who asks "how is it vested?' when the question makes no sense at all and also asks how long does the average person hold 'stock certificates?'
who criticized BAC? Obviously you've done your research on it. Russian, any idiot can pick a stock and hope it goes up. Researching your investment is a bit more involved. In addition, you know what I meant in terms of "hold on to it for two to three years". The point being, very few people hold on to individual stocks for an extended period of time- in terms of multiple years.
This post was edited on 4/9/14 at 10:32 am
Posted on 4/9/14 at 10:42 am to Cajun Revolution
quote:The best investors do. Warren Buffett, when asked what his favorite holding period is for a stock, replied "Forever."
very few people hold on to individual stocks for an extended period of time
If you remove the huge volumes of HFT shares which greatly distorts the "average holding period" number, I bet the average holding period for institutional investors would surprise you.
I'm not sure why we're even debating this idea now since the topic is about one stock, BAC.
And, no, I don't think it will be $70/share in the next2, 3 or even 5 years. But I sure do see it being in the upper $20's to low $30's within that time frame. If I can almost double by money every 5 years, I'm happy.
Posted on 4/9/14 at 10:43 am to Iowa Golfer
quote:
I'd say less than that
You're probably right.
I love when I hear people talk about the financial statement analysis of such a complex organization like a national bank. So many moving parts.
That won't stop the "experts" from putting a price objective on these companies and suckers for beleiving them.
Basically, my point is.. these banks are just selling widgets.
This post was edited on 4/9/14 at 10:45 am
Posted on 4/9/14 at 10:46 am to LSURussian
quote:
The best investors do
Let me go ram my head into a wall right now because I'm pretty sure we're discussing the average American investor.
I like you Russian, but quit looking for an argument when there's nothing I discussed remotely controversial to a conservative investor.
quote:
If you remove the huge volumes of HFT shares which greatly distorts the "average holding period" number, I bet the average holding period for institutional investors would surprise you.
I would like to see the numbers because I'd be thoroughly surprised if the holding period is greater than a year.
This post was edited on 4/9/14 at 10:48 am
Posted on 4/9/14 at 10:48 am to Iowa Golfer
quote:"Every" counter party? So we should analyze every loan to bank makes before we decide to buy the stock? I'm not sure that's feasible.
For a BoA, you'd really need to analyze the financial strength of every counter party they have in certain arrangements.
And if you're referring to the AIG credit default swaps when you mention 'swaps', as the statisticians call that situation, that was a 'skinny tail event.'
Posted on 4/9/14 at 10:50 am to Cajun Revolution
quote:I've never aspired to be 'average.'
I'm pretty sure we're discussing the average American investor.
quote:For 'institutional investors'??? I'd take that bet.
I'd be thoroughly surprised if the holding period is greater than a year.
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