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Started By
Message
Can we expect oil prices to drop even more?
Posted on 7/21/15 at 11:59 am
Posted on 7/21/15 at 11:59 am
With sanctions lifted on Iran and an estimated 500,000 barrels a day to hit the market with their exports and estimated to be a million by the end of the year will it drop the price even more
This post was edited on 7/21/15 at 12:08 pm
9
Posted on 7/21/15 at 12:04 pm to FelicianaTigerfan
I think we are close to a medium term bottom. If the USD breaks above 99-100 I'll change my tune.
Posted on 7/21/15 at 12:11 pm to LSU0358
Have they finalized the deal.
I've also heard from several oil execs that even if congress approves this deal, Iran oil won't be available to the market til next year.
I've also heard from several oil execs that even if congress approves this deal, Iran oil won't be available to the market til next year.
Posted on 7/21/15 at 12:13 pm to FelicianaTigerfan
Posted on 7/21/15 at 12:19 pm to FelicianaTigerfan
Iraq is the bigger driver. If Isis remains in the north, expect millions added over the next few years.
Posted on 7/21/15 at 12:20 pm to WPBTiger
That's a pretty silly headline. On my phone but don't see any evidence provided in the article to support that.
Posted on 7/21/15 at 1:55 pm to FelicianaTigerfan
500k-1 million extra barrels a day isn't that much. The world currently produces 90+million a day without Iran. Also, I've heard/read the same thing MadTown Tiger said.
Overall, I think the market and people are overreacting to the Iran situation on oil prices. Yes, their is oversupply right now without them, but I don't think it warrants the drop we've seen. I figure WTI should get back to $55 or more within a few months, probably sooner.
Overall, I think the market and people are overreacting to the Iran situation on oil prices. Yes, their is oversupply right now without them, but I don't think it warrants the drop we've seen. I figure WTI should get back to $55 or more within a few months, probably sooner.
Posted on 7/21/15 at 4:34 pm to FelicianaTigerfan
It probably wont go down anymore. Just had a convo with a guy in the oil and gas field out here in Houston recently. He said the lower the price per barrel, the more jobs are cut in that industry. Nobody wants to lose their job. Actually im tryna get in that field as we speak.
Posted on 7/21/15 at 4:35 pm to Superboy3209
quote:I don't think this is how supply and demand works
It probably wont go down anymore. Just had a convo with a guy in the oil and gas field out here in Houston recently. He said the lower the price per barrel, the more jobs are cut in that industry. Nobody wants to lose their job.
Posted on 7/21/15 at 4:52 pm to Superboy3209
That guy doesn't sound biased at all...
Posted on 7/21/15 at 4:58 pm to Iosh
Maybe he's implying that lower oil=less jobs, less jobs= less production, and less production=higher prices? Or maybe that no job cuts are coming, so oil isn't dropping much further? 
Posted on 7/21/15 at 6:50 pm to Iosh
I think he's implying that companies are trimming the fat right now.
Posted on 7/21/15 at 6:56 pm to Iosh
quote:
I don't think this is how supply and demand works
Demand for oil is relatively inelastic. Supply fluctuates much more, mostly due to artificial control.
The point is that if the price drops too low (due to oversupply), domestic production could be hurt because the profit margins will decrease. Companies typically adapt to these market pressures by reducing production to optimize profits while laying off workers in line with those reductions.
This post was edited on 7/21/15 at 7:00 pm
Posted on 7/21/15 at 9:16 pm to FelicianaTigerfan
Don't forget China is entering a recession or at the least a slowdown. They have been a major factor in demand increase.
I work in O&G as well, and I'm not expecting to crest $65 for several years.
I work in O&G as well, and I'm not expecting to crest $65 for several years.
Posted on 7/22/15 at 8:26 am to FelicianaTigerfan
Posted on 7/22/15 at 1:04 pm to FelicianaTigerfan
Posted on 7/22/15 at 1:18 pm to FelicianaTigerfan
If Iran is part of OPEC, and OPEC regularly has limits placed on what it produces... would Iran just be given capactity from other members, or would it raise capacity by a million barrels or so and give that to Iran?
I've long since given up trying to do any rational market analysis on oil. There are so many things that influence the price of oil that have nothing to do with supply and demand - market contracts, value of USD, etc.
I've long since given up trying to do any rational market analysis on oil. There are so many things that influence the price of oil that have nothing to do with supply and demand - market contracts, value of USD, etc.
Posted on 7/22/15 at 1:38 pm to LSUFanHouston
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