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Can someone in simple terms break down biotech and UA struggling?
Posted on 12/22/16 at 5:51 pm
Posted on 12/22/16 at 5:51 pm
I don't get why UA is down so much since I thought I was getting it for a good buy at $38. I'll hold long but just wondering what are some reasons when it seems like it's doing well.
Same for my Fidelity Biotech MF. It was up as high as 40% last year and now it's down 15%. Thinking of selling it and picking up Fidelity Index 500 Premium shares. Any thoughts?
Same for my Fidelity Biotech MF. It was up as high as 40% last year and now it's down 15%. Thinking of selling it and picking up Fidelity Index 500 Premium shares. Any thoughts?
6
Posted on 12/25/16 at 10:18 am to Sho Nuff
Right there with you on #TeamUA brother. The driveman got in right before the split and it's been a huge disappointment obviously. I always planned for it to be LTH. But the positives remain:
-Their shoe market is in its infancy
-International sales are in its infancy
-They spent a ton of money on a UA store in Times Square (20M in rent alone/year) + their "UA Campus" currently in construction
-Still have Curry, Speith, Bryce, Cam, Brady, Pehlps, The Rock as headline athletes
-Just secured their first pro sports deal with the MLB in 2020. The baseball market and suburban families that come with it are exactly the market they're targeting. Couple that with Harper probably going to the Yankees on the richest deal in baseball means a ton of exposure
I will keep buying on the dips. Before the split 2 years ago it was trading around 90-100. The stock is currently trading at 30 (x2 for split cost = 60 pre split), so I still think there's a lot of value.
DRIVEMAN OUT
-Their shoe market is in its infancy
-International sales are in its infancy
-They spent a ton of money on a UA store in Times Square (20M in rent alone/year) + their "UA Campus" currently in construction
-Still have Curry, Speith, Bryce, Cam, Brady, Pehlps, The Rock as headline athletes
-Just secured their first pro sports deal with the MLB in 2020. The baseball market and suburban families that come with it are exactly the market they're targeting. Couple that with Harper probably going to the Yankees on the richest deal in baseball means a ton of exposure
I will keep buying on the dips. Before the split 2 years ago it was trading around 90-100. The stock is currently trading at 30 (x2 for split cost = 60 pre split), so I still think there's a lot of value.
DRIVEMAN OUT
Posted on 12/25/16 at 11:52 am to Sho Nuff
i bought UAA a couple weeks ago, for a quick bull gain, but so far that has been disappointing.
i really dont have much faith in the stock long term, if thats your goal.
UAA has a lot of competitors, and doesn't have any appreciable recent changes in the supply line, their distribution, their leadership, their projected revenue or growth, or any of their fundamentals that make this stock appealing long term
in sum, it doesn't seem undervalued to me, and they don't seem competitive within their sub-sector.
i really dont have much faith in the stock long term, if thats your goal.
UAA has a lot of competitors, and doesn't have any appreciable recent changes in the supply line, their distribution, their leadership, their projected revenue or growth, or any of their fundamentals that make this stock appealing long term
in sum, it doesn't seem undervalued to me, and they don't seem competitive within their sub-sector.
Posted on 12/25/16 at 11:54 am to death valley driver
quote:
-Their shoe market is in its infancy
-International sales are in its infancy
-They spent a ton of money on a UA store in Times Square (20M in rent alone/year) + their "UA Campus" currently in construction
-Still have Curry, Speith, Bryce, Cam, Brady, Pehlps, The Rock as headline athletes
-Just secured their first pro sports deal with the MLB in 2020. The baseball market and suburban families that come with it are exactly the market they're targeting. Couple that with Harper probably going to the Yankees on the richest deal in baseball means a ton of exposure
all that is currently factored into the current value of the stock, though, so its irrelevant toward future market earnings.
quote:
DRIVEMAN OUT
good idea
This post was edited on 12/25/16 at 11:56 am
Posted on 12/25/16 at 1:18 pm to Sho Nuff
Why wouldn't I just buy Nike? It's already an icon. Under armor has done well but I don't see them being a better company than nike.
Posted on 12/25/16 at 6:04 pm to oklahogjr
quote:You should
Why wouldn't I just buy Nike?
Posted on 12/25/16 at 7:09 pm to oklahogjr
quote:
Why wouldn't I just buy Nike? It's already an icon. Under armor has done well but I don't see them being a better company than nike.
Well, maybe I screwed up then
I thought UA was looking like a great competitor to Nike with the signings of people Driveman mentioned among other things. I didn't go "all-in" on UA or anything, just more disappointed that it's down 25% since I bought and was looking for any reasons why they're not doing better even though they beat earnings (I think they did at least). Will probably pick up some Nike as well now.
Posted on 12/25/16 at 9:17 pm to Sho Nuff
NKE is probably my favorite stock right now while the market is at all time highs
Posted on 12/25/16 at 10:57 pm to Sho Nuff
quote:
I don't get why UA is down so much
their affiliation with notre dame and auburn?
Posted on 12/26/16 at 5:48 am to Sho Nuff
quote:
I don't get why UA is down so much since I thought I was getting it for a good buy at $38
Because it is a fad that has reached saturation point.
Posted on 12/26/16 at 12:38 pm to Sho Nuff
I don't think uaa will beat uearnings. Scheduled to be released sometime in late Jan. I think.
It's also an astronomical number as I recall, so I would not put too much emphasis on it
It's also an astronomical number as I recall, so I would not put too much emphasis on it
Posted on 12/26/16 at 2:22 pm to cave canem
UA is far from a fad.
The reality is that the market has inefficiencies in valuing high growth companies. No one knows what the growth curve will or will not be so the market generally overreacts to bad news in the short term.
The reality is that the market has inefficiencies in valuing high growth companies. No one knows what the growth curve will or will not be so the market generally overreacts to bad news in the short term.
Posted on 12/26/16 at 10:15 pm to lynxcat
quote:
UA is far from a fad.
I would say that ole' Daniel Webster had UA in mind when he penned this .
quote:
fad
fad/Submit
noun
an intense and widely shared enthusiasm for something, especially one that is short-lived and without basis in the object's qualities; a craze.
UA is a marketing success, the biggest seller they have is simple t-shirts with their name on it, as soon as the kids do not think that is cool anymore they are done.
JMHO but the time to be getting into UA long term has passed quite a while back.
Posted on 12/27/16 at 12:39 am to cave canem
You could argue that any brand company is a "fad" then. I completely disagree about the potential for UA. The sponsorships (while very expensive) have the brand positioned with the very best for the long-term and I anecdotally see more young kids wearing UA than Nike.
Again, the market struggles with pricing high growth stocks and over reacts when any negative or realism enters the equation. The CEO recently adjusted profit targets because UA is investing in scaling its business and the stock got pummeled. This is a perfect example of over reaction with a short term view from Wall St.
Again, the market struggles with pricing high growth stocks and over reacts when any negative or realism enters the equation. The CEO recently adjusted profit targets because UA is investing in scaling its business and the stock got pummeled. This is a perfect example of over reaction with a short term view from Wall St.
Posted on 12/27/16 at 2:24 am to lynxcat
quote:
You could argue that any brand company is a "fad" then. I completely disagree about the potential for UA. The sponsorships (while very expensive) have the brand positioned with the very best for the long-term and I anecdotally see more young kids wearing UA than Nike.
Again, the market struggles with pricing high growth stocks and over reacts when any negative or realism enters the equation. The CEO recently adjusted profit targets because UA is investing in scaling its business and the stock got pummeled. This is a perfect example of over reaction with a short term view from Wall St.
Load up if you wish.
If there were millions of shoe-less and shirtless people running around I would think more of your assessment, however UA is hitting the wall of brand loyalty IMHO.
Any additional market share they gain has to come at the expense of someone else and the big boys aint going to give it up easily.
As far as to what young kids are wearing they are the most fickle buyers on earth.
UA is a compression garment company at heart, the rest of their business is based on being cool, stop being cool enough and the bottom falls out.
Posted on 12/27/16 at 5:53 am to cave canem
Ath leisure is a growing segment so the pie is getting bigger and UA can steal share from brands like lulu.
I'm not looking to invest a ton of money in UA but I think it has been over sold in the last six months.
I'm not looking to invest a ton of money in UA but I think it has been over sold in the last six months.
Posted on 12/27/16 at 6:36 am to lynxcat
quote:
Ath leisure is a growing segment so the pie is getting bigger and UA can steal share from brands like lulu.
I'm not looking to invest a ton of money in UA but I think it has been over sold in the last six months.
perhaps you are correct, good luck
Posted on 12/27/16 at 7:53 am to lynxcat
quote:
Ath leisure is a growing segment so the pie is getting bigger and UA can steal share from brands like lulu.
Definitely a growing sector however how much it has left to grow is still to be determined.
They're going to have to steal a lot of companies total market share to move the needle much at this point if they can't get a chunk segment from nike.
Posted on 12/27/16 at 8:00 am to oklahogjr
There is still a lot of room to grow overseas. China for instance
Posted on 12/27/16 at 10:41 am to lynxcat
I actually kind of enjoy seeing this anti-UA talk because I had a huge post about it probably a year ago about why it sucked and some old dude thought he schooled me for some reason
If I'm being honest though, UA isn't what I'd call a fad, it is however and will always be second fiddle to Nike.
This is a decent point, but here's how I measure UA as of now.
Revenue in 2015
UA: $3.96 billion
Jordan brand: $2.6 billion
The fact that Jordan Brand, a sub-brand of Nike, brought in more than half of what UA did itself shows just how far behind UA is in the game. Nike owns the sports apparel world and it isn't really very close.
It isn't white, 12-year-olds wearing $15 shirts that make a company.
It's the college, high school athletes, and other people who spend $220-250 on a re-release on a pair of Jordans that were originally in stores in 2005. And it's not like shoes sit in warehouses waiting to be sold either. These things sell out in 10 minutes after being made available on Nike's website.
Jordan Brand is always something that UA, and Nike's competitors, will never have and that is what makes it appealing to me as a company. The fact that they have the highest in-demand sports brand in the country and likely the world.
If I'm being honest though, UA isn't what I'd call a fad, it is however and will always be second fiddle to Nike.
quote:
The sponsorships (while very expensive) have the brand positioned with the very best for the long-term and I anecdotally see more young kids wearing UA than Nike.
This is a decent point, but here's how I measure UA as of now.
Revenue in 2015
UA: $3.96 billion
Jordan brand: $2.6 billion
The fact that Jordan Brand, a sub-brand of Nike, brought in more than half of what UA did itself shows just how far behind UA is in the game. Nike owns the sports apparel world and it isn't really very close.
It isn't white, 12-year-olds wearing $15 shirts that make a company.
It's the college, high school athletes, and other people who spend $220-250 on a re-release on a pair of Jordans that were originally in stores in 2005. And it's not like shoes sit in warehouses waiting to be sold either. These things sell out in 10 minutes after being made available on Nike's website.
Jordan Brand is always something that UA, and Nike's competitors, will never have and that is what makes it appealing to me as a company. The fact that they have the highest in-demand sports brand in the country and likely the world.
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