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Message

re: BOIL has become predictable

Posted on 5/21/15 at 1:34 pm to
Posted by Iowa Golfer
Heaven
Member since Dec 2013
10229 posts
Posted on 5/21/15 at 1:34 pm to
I'm long. For now. That can change in an awful big hurry here.
Posted by sneakytiger
Member since Oct 2007
2471 posts
Posted on 5/21/15 at 1:46 pm to
My current pattern has been as follows - I start a position Monday-Tuesday of each week and then get stopped out on Thursday morning when the report comes out and whatever I'm in invariably tanks, only to then watch it creep back or reverse completely (see today) after lunch.

edit - it drives me nuts
This post was edited on 5/21/15 at 2:22 pm
Posted by Iowa Golfer
Heaven
Member since Dec 2013
10229 posts
Posted on 5/21/15 at 2:19 pm to
Mistake
This post was edited on 5/21/15 at 2:20 pm
Posted by thatguy777
br
Member since Feb 2007
2384 posts
Posted on 5/29/15 at 10:21 am to
Anyone thinking about going long UGAZ-down to 1.91 today? Seems to be trading between 2 and 3 the past few months. I have no position right now.
Posted by Grits N Shrimp
Kansas City, MO
Member since Dec 2014
646 posts
Posted on 5/29/15 at 12:11 pm to
Averaged down yesterday to $2.41. Looks like I should have waited 24 hours. Oh well.
Posted by Bucktail1
Member since Feb 2015
3186 posts
Posted on 5/29/15 at 12:15 pm to
I've been in and out of ugaz and Dgaz for the past couple months. Bought ugaz yesterday afternoon at $2.08
Posted by white perch
the bright, happy side of hell
Member since Apr 2012
7122 posts
Posted on 5/29/15 at 12:58 pm to
Bought UWTI on 5/22 and sold today for a 1.69% gain

Holding UGAZ at an average price of 2.10
Posted by Bucktail1
Member since Feb 2015
3186 posts
Posted on 5/29/15 at 3:10 pm to
Holding Dgaz at cost of $6.40, come on $8!
Posted by slackster
Houston
Member since Mar 2009
84609 posts
Posted on 5/29/15 at 3:24 pm to
quote:

Seems to be trading between 2 and 3 the past few months.


Completely irrelevant, just for the record. UGAZ can and will blow right through that 52 week low at some time in the future. It isn't a question of "if", but rather "when".

Although it isn't really this simple, you should ask yourself if you'd buy UNG. If so, then research UGAZ and make your own decisions. Don't simply look at a chart of UGAZ and try to get in at a low. You'll regret it...
Posted by sneakytiger
Member since Oct 2007
2471 posts
Posted on 6/1/15 at 12:51 pm to
Futures up a bit, UGAZ flat
This post was edited on 6/1/15 at 12:51 pm
Posted by Bucktail1
Member since Feb 2015
3186 posts
Posted on 6/1/15 at 1:46 pm to
Sold Dgaz today for a 7% gain
Posted by white perch
the bright, happy side of hell
Member since Apr 2012
7122 posts
Posted on 6/4/15 at 11:22 am to
UGAZ taking a beating as of late.

it's gotta get back above 2.03 for me to make a profit. 2.50 would be great.

Posted by Crbello4Hiceman
Lurking
Member since May 2011
502 posts
Posted on 6/4/15 at 12:48 pm to
So what are the catalysts that will drive it between now and the next injection report? I still don't have any idea what makes the needle move here. I am currently on the sidelines and I definitely understand the decay factor, but am I correct in thinking we could see a swing up if future production expectations become too strong based on recent injections leading to price movement in favor of UGAZ?
Posted by Grits N Shrimp
Kansas City, MO
Member since Dec 2014
646 posts
Posted on 6/4/15 at 1:34 pm to
We need a heat wave
Posted by white perch
the bright, happy side of hell
Member since Apr 2012
7122 posts
Posted on 6/4/15 at 1:59 pm to
quote:

but am I correct in thinking we could see a swing up if future production expectations become too strong based on recent injections leading to price movement in favor of UGAZ?


you lost me somewhere in this part
Posted by Crbello4Hiceman
Lurking
Member since May 2011
502 posts
Posted on 6/4/15 at 2:09 pm to
Just wondering if I am right thinking that since injections have been high and are expected to be higher, that we have a chance that they are over-estimating injections and that is being priced in right now. If this is the case, when actual injections roll in, they would fall short of the sky-high expectations, which would lift futures and UGAZ. Just wondering if this seems reasonable as an option.
Posted by white perch
the bright, happy side of hell
Member since Apr 2012
7122 posts
Posted on 6/4/15 at 2:21 pm to
quote:

Just wondering if this seems reasonable as an option.


I don't know, maybe. I don't think that much about it. I buy after a big dip and wait.

Posted by Bucktail1
Member since Feb 2015
3186 posts
Posted on 6/4/15 at 3:32 pm to
That's my logic too. I'm still learning. I'm in ugaz at $2.08
Posted by Crbello4Hiceman
Lurking
Member since May 2011
502 posts
Posted on 6/5/15 at 12:43 pm to
Down into the mid 1.70s... anybody think the hammering is more severe than deserved? Any reason to think we might get a little rebound in the next week or so that might pull UGAZ back to $2 or higher?
Posted by Iowa Golfer
Heaven
Member since Dec 2013
10229 posts
Posted on 6/8/15 at 6:58 am to
Interesting argument that production has decreased notwithstanding EIA's data points this morning.
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