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Started By
Message
AAPL vol is a great sell here
Posted on 8/21/15 at 3:40 pm
Posted on 8/21/15 at 3:40 pm
Jan is trading in the mid-30's. If you want to lean long, probably smart to sell the 120 or 125 straddle. If not, sell maybe the 110 or 115.
2 year realized is like 20.
2 year realized is like 20.
1
Posted on 8/24/15 at 10:24 am to Big Scrub TX
Jan in the high 30's now. Trade of a lifetime. sell it.
Posted on 8/24/15 at 11:06 am to Big Scrub TX
SSF's or equity options? I'm assuming you're talking about equity options.
Posted on 8/24/15 at 11:14 am to Iowa Golfer
Yes, selling listed equity options on AAPL...specifically upside straddles. I hope some people got the trade on, as the stock is now up on the day after the preposterous opening few minutes. Vol has already started to come in some and will crash sometime in coming weeks.
Posted on 8/24/15 at 11:18 am to Big Scrub TX
In the AAPL thread I had suggested an iron condor due to lack of volatility a while back.
AAPL is more like a Dow stock, rather than a tech stock. I'd think about going synthetic long for a short term trade. But I'm about the most conservative investor on this board.
AAPL is more like a Dow stock, rather than a tech stock. I'd think about going synthetic long for a short term trade. But I'm about the most conservative investor on this board.
Posted on 8/24/15 at 11:20 am to Iowa Golfer
quote:
I'd think about going synthetic long for a short term trade.
Then do what I said...sell the Jan 17 120 or 125 straddle here (depending on how long you want to be). Then sit back and profit.
Posted on 8/24/15 at 1:11 pm to Big Scrub TX
I'm not following your logic. I think what you are describing is a short straddle. My preference would be to sell puts at an entry level and yield I'd be o.k. with in order to go long. A short straddle would have some very high opportunity costs as I see it, so maybe I misunderstand what you mean here.
Edit. I must be entirely missing what you're trying to tell us here.
Edit. I must be entirely missing what you're trying to tell us here.
This post was edited on 8/24/15 at 1:13 pm
Posted on 8/24/15 at 2:22 pm to Iowa Golfer
quote:
I'm not following your logic. I think what you are describing is a short straddle. My preference would be to sell puts at an entry level and yield I'd be o.k. with in order to go long. A short straddle would have some very high opportunity costs as I see it, so maybe I misunderstand what you mean here.
Edit. I must be entirely missing what you're trying to tell us here.
Apple vol is way too high in the LEAPs right now. Realized over the past several years is like 20. It's trading at like 38. Even though the stock is short-term volatile, there's close to 0% chance that realized will be 38 over the next few years.
If you short a 120/125/130/35etc. straddle, you not only get some long deltas (as I think the stock is oversold) but you also sell effectively all-time high vol in a stock that will not be that volatile. And out to 2017 you aren't even that short gammas so you don't have to worry about hedging all that much.
Posted on 8/24/15 at 2:26 pm to Big Scrub TX
Calendar straddle? Jan 16/17?
Give me the expiration months.
I think I see what you're doing. Sorry, it's been a somewhat busy day today. A fun day, but a hell of a day as well. I must be tired. I read through your posts about three times, and just couldn't get my head around it.
Give me the expiration months.
I think I see what you're doing. Sorry, it's been a somewhat busy day today. A fun day, but a hell of a day as well. I must be tired. I read through your posts about three times, and just couldn't get my head around it.
Posted on 8/24/15 at 2:35 pm to Iowa Golfer
quote:
Calendar straddle? Jan 16/17?
No. Jan 17 straddle. Choose your strike based on how many deltas you want. (The higher the strike the greater the long delta.)
Posted on 8/24/15 at 2:37 pm to Big Scrub TX
Straddle the leaps. Got it. I'll see if I can't open a position here before close. Lots of time for this to play out.
I like your conservative style.
I like your conservative style.
Posted on 8/24/15 at 3:42 pm to Iowa Golfer
quote:
I like your conservative style.
Well, I'm not sure how "conservative" most folks would consider selling naked long term vol to be.
However, I think it's close to free money.
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