What it would take to make it to the SECCG?

We will only have 1 sec loss and would win the head to head vs Bama. So yeh

This isn't hard.. if we win out and Auburn loses, we go to CG. If Auburn wins out, they go.

We could theoretically make the SECCG with 2 SEC losses, but that's so unlikely that it might as well be disregarded. I will say that our 2nd SEC cannot be to Bama.

A loss to Bama I believe mathematically eliminates us. We'd have 2 losses and the most Bama could lose after that is 2 (Moo State and Auburn). Since they'd have H2H, we'd need a 3 or 4 way tie, and looking at the potential ties:

3 way tie with Bama and Auburn - we'd be 0-2 against them both, eliminated, Auburn goes
3 way tie with Bama and A&M - Bama would be 2-0 against us both, eliminated, Bama goes
4 way tie with Bama, A&M, and Auburn - Us and Aggy would be 1-2 in that pool, Bama and Auburn would be 2-1, so it comes down to Bama/Auburn H2H, Auburn goes.

Is this for real?

Since when do non-conference games matter in the SEC race? This isn't the playoff we're talking about, there are objective rules that decide who wins the West. In your scenario, we go to Atlanta with the same SEC record as Bama, and a head-to-head win.