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re: UF Series Takeaways
Posted on 3/27/17 at 5:38 pm to ell_13
Posted on 3/27/17 at 5:38 pm to ell_13
I tend to agree with your analysis, all good points...other things to take with us from this weekend is the learning curve for these freshmen is getting bigger...our DH finally showed up that last game, hope Beau can continue to have good AB's, or any of the other DB's we have have this year...
Poche wasn't as sharp as he has been, but where he was, there were very few in that select group...Lange pitched well, tuff to lose that 1, but on the road, it happens...
lot of solid posts in the thread, too...
Poche wasn't as sharp as he has been, but where he was, there were very few in that select group...Lange pitched well, tuff to lose that 1, but on the road, it happens...
lot of solid posts in the thread, too...
This post was edited on 3/27/17 at 5:39 pm
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Posted on 3/27/17 at 6:20 pm to ell_13
quote:
PM will NOT bunt with a runner on 2B and no outs.
The chance of scoring is greater with a runner on second and no outs than it is for a runner on third and one out.
Posted on 3/27/17 at 6:26 pm to LSU Groupee
I need to find the article where the mlb stats show that that is only true for multiple run innings. When playing for 1 run, a bunt in that situation is ideal. I'll find it tonight.
Posted on 3/27/17 at 6:52 pm to ell_13
quote:Why would it be different for multiple run innings vs a single run inning if the metric is just scoring one run?
I need to find the article where the mlb stats show that that is only true for multiple run innings. When playing for 1 run, a bunt in that situation is ideal.
Posted on 3/27/17 at 7:26 pm to LSURussian
More runs are generated over the course of a game if you never bunt. In other words while you are more likely to score with a bunt, giving up the out isn't worth it because it lessens the chance of a multi run inning, which, in the end, means more games won. But at the end of the game, when only one run is needed a bunt is the statistically better play that eventually leads to a tie/win.
Posted on 3/27/17 at 7:28 pm to LSURussian
It's probability based. So, while your chances of scoring one go up, your chances of scoring more than one go down because of the additional out you now have.
These probability tables are built on the data of several years worth of mlb games. The numbers may be different for college, but probably not enough to worry about.
These probability tables are built on the data of several years worth of mlb games. The numbers may be different for college, but probably not enough to worry about.
Posted on 3/27/17 at 7:39 pm to ProjectP2294
quote:
These probability tables are built on the data of several years worth of mlb games. The numbers may be different for college, but PROBABLY not enough to worry about.
I see what you probably did there
Posted on 3/27/17 at 7:41 pm to ProjectP2294
LINK
Basically the probability of scoring 1 run goes up about 5% if you sacrifice a runner from 1st to 2nd or 2nd to 3rd with no outs. Although the total run output goes down because you are less likely to score multiple runs. But with a runner on 3B and 1 out, the likelihood you score at least 1 run goes up.
Basically the probability of scoring 1 run goes up about 5% if you sacrifice a runner from 1st to 2nd or 2nd to 3rd with no outs. Although the total run output goes down because you are less likely to score multiple runs. But with a runner on 3B and 1 out, the likelihood you score at least 1 run goes up.
This post was edited on 3/27/17 at 7:51 pm
Posted on 3/27/17 at 8:00 pm to ell_13
I didn't interpret Groupee's comment to include multiple runs being scored, just one run.
So, as I understand his comment, the chance of scoring ONE run is higher if there is a runner on second with no outs than there is if there is a runner on third with one out.
If true, that's an interesting stat that I've never heard before.
So, as I understand his comment, the chance of scoring ONE run is higher if there is a runner on second with no outs than there is if there is a runner on third with one out.
If true, that's an interesting stat that I've never heard before.
Posted on 3/27/17 at 8:07 pm to LSURussian
Based on the stats in my link, he is wrong. While a team is likely to score MORE runs with no outs and a runner on 2nd, you are still more likely to score at least 1 run with a runner on 3rd and 1 out.
This post was edited on 3/27/17 at 8:08 pm
Posted on 3/27/17 at 8:10 pm to ell_13
Where do you get those types of stats? Is there a book of baseball probability other than a Sabermetrics book?
Posted on 3/27/17 at 8:15 pm to LSURussian
Reading the comments in that article, it looks like the author did his own 10 year analysis of AL only teams due to the NL stats being skewed because of pitchers batting and bunting in almost any situation. I'm still on my phone but I know there's some other source data out there mostly of stats showing how bad bunting is. 
This post was edited on 3/27/17 at 8:16 pm
Posted on 3/27/17 at 8:19 pm to ell_13
What if he does bunt him over and the next two guys still strike out. Are people mad at Paul for giving up an out and not allowing his guys to play? Personally I don't think there is a bad call in that situation. It's a philosophical choice. Some people believe on the road you play for the win and at home you play for the tie. Maybe that's what Paul was thinking. I got my ace on the mound that can give me another inning let's try and get two and win the game in 9 innings instead of extras. It didn't work so of course everyone thinks it's a bad call. The fact of the matter is he didn't ask the next three guys to strikeout they didn't execute what was asked of them either.
Posted on 3/27/17 at 8:21 pm to geauxtigers33
Of course there is a situational element to it based on peronnel. Can you explain why PM would have the bunt called with the runner on first then? Because the fact that he had it called to begin with completely destroys your argument.
ETA: would you also defend him less if you knew most people were upset by the no bunt call prior to it not working?
ETA: would you also defend him less if you knew most people were upset by the no bunt call prior to it not working?
This post was edited on 3/27/17 at 8:29 pm
Posted on 3/27/17 at 8:37 pm to ell_13
Runner at first he was playing for tie when runner got to second with no outs he played for the win. I know most people were calling for bunt before the play I just don't think the decision to not bunt is as bad as people are making it seem. I am way more upset about the next three guys striking out over the one decision CPM made. As far as decision making goes he should have pinch hit for Breaux also.
Posted on 3/27/17 at 8:38 pm to geauxtigers33
I agree about the pinch hit. But I'm not convinced Slaughter Ks either. Much less pressure putting the ball in play than feeling like you have to get a hit. Jmo.
Posted on 3/28/17 at 7:21 am to LSURussian
quote:
the chance of scoring ONE run is higher if there is a runner on second with no outs than there is if there is a runner on third with one out.
That's right and if you think about it, it's logical.
The more outs you have to get a guy in from scoring position, the better off you are.
Scoring from second with none out has a run expectancy of 1.228. Scoring from third with one out has a run expectancy of .980.
Bottom line, its not a coaching mistake to not bunt in that situation.
Posted on 3/28/17 at 7:33 am to LSU Groupee
In which situation are you more likely to score at least one run? Hint: It's with a runner at 3B and 1 out.
You aren't saying anything to contradict my point that bunting in the last inning or extras when you need just one run is statistically the correct call.
You aren't saying anything to contradict my point that bunting in the last inning or extras when you need just one run is statistically the correct call.
This post was edited on 3/28/17 at 7:34 am
Posted on 3/28/17 at 7:35 am to geauxtigers33
quote:
While I somewhat agree DH is a different animal.
I will agree it is a different mentality to be the DH.
It seems Beau has been the most productive, but PM will not give the job to one person for any length of time.
One bad game and he changes it.
I just wish he would give someone a shot at it and see what happens.
Posted on 3/28/17 at 7:41 am to LSU_10
quote:
One bad game and he changes it.
what's PM's rant user name?
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