Sports Nerd’s Breakdown of LSU-Arkansas (LONG)

If anything over a paragraph prompts a “TL/DR” then go ahead and peck that out, move on and feel clever. What follows is from a college buddy who is a sports nerd of the highest order with a knack for sports prose. Either that or he's an adept plagiarizer who has avoided detection (at least by me). Good stuff.

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Running Game

LSU: I fully expect the Tigers to try and run between the tackles on Friday. Arkansas' strength in their front seven is on the outside with redshirt seniors Jake Beguette and Jerry Franklin. Spencer Ware will see the bulk of the carries, and I would not be surprised to see a Cotton Bowl like performance from him. In that game Ware rushed for 102 yards with his long carry being only 26 yards. The fact that Ware is not a breakaway back should actually help LSU control the clock. Arkansas has lost the time of position battle for the season 28:44 to 31:16, and I expect the trend to continue this weekend. When LSU does decide to run to the outside, the addition of Jordan Jefferson in the starting lineup will put them in a "plus one situation" as Urban Meyer likes to say. This should give Michael Ford a chance for some big runs.

Arkansas: Whereas the Tigers run to set up the pass, the Hogs are just the opposite. Arkansas will try to spread it out and take advantage of our nickel and dime defenses to run the ball. I also expect them to use the draw to reduce the effectiveness of our blitz packages. Against Bama the Hogs managed a meager 17 yards on the ground on 19 carries. LSU's run defense has been equally as stout as Alabama, but Bama's strength lies in their linebackers, whereas LSUs strength is in the front four. Dennis Johnson leads the team with 606 yards on the season and has a healthy 6.7 average yards per carry. If he can get past the front four of LSU, the linebackers and safeties need to be in position to make the tackle. Ronnie Wingo provides a bigger back for Arkansas, and has a respectable 424 yards on the season.

Passing Game:

LSU: A lot of focus this week will be on Tyler Wilson, who in 2008 was the 9th rated pro-style quarterback. The 8th rated pro-style quarterback that year was none other than our own Jordan Jefferson. JJ appears to be back as the starter, and has played well in his two starts, albeit against weak competition in Western Kentucky and Ole Miss. LSU quarterbacks have only thrown 3 interceptions this year. One big reason for this is the protection from our offensive line. LSU has only allowed 10 quarterback sacks on the entire season. Jake Beguette leads Arkansas with an impressive 8 sacks on the year, and will do battle with Sophmore Chris Faulk. Faulk needs to continue the impressive play that won him SEC offensive lineman of the week against Tennessee. LSU will pound the rock to set up the play action pass, and if Faulk can provide JJ with the time he needs, expect the team to try and go deep to Rueben Randle and Odell Beckham Jr. If Arkansas decides to put 8 men in the box, Deangelo Peterson could be needed for some key 3rd down conversions.

Arkansas: I mentioned there would be a lot of focus on Tyler Wilson, and there should be. Wilson has thrown for an average of 292.3 yards per game this season, and has done a pretty good job of protecting the ball with only 5 interceptions. Jarius Wright is having a monster season with 61 catches for 1002 yards despite sitting out the game against Troy. LSU does not have the luxury to focus exclusively on Wright, as Joe Adams, Chris Gragg, and Cobi Hamilton have 46, 38, and 29 catches on the season respectively. LSU matches up as well as anyone in the defensive secondary and will get a boost now that Eric Reid has been cleared to play. LSU's nickel and dime backs Tharold Simon and Ron Brooks would start for most teams as demonstrated by Brooks' performance against Ole Miss which won him SEC defensive player of the week. Mo Claiborne has a team leading 4 of the Tiger's 15 interceptions. Arkansas was forced to break in two new offensive tackles this year, which has in no doubt contributed to their quarterbacks being sacked 20 times this year. This should provide an advantage for LSU as Sam Montgomery and Barkevious Mingo have 12 of the team's 27 sacks this season. Arkansas is explosive, and relies heavily on the big play. LSU must limit the yards after the catch, and keep an eye on Johnson and Wingo out of the backfield.

Special Teams:

LSU: Brad Wing and Drew Alleman. Enough said. Wing has averaged 43 yards for the year on his punts, with an amazing 21 ending up inside the 20. The Tigers have done a great job of limiting punt return yardage this year, but they will be challenged by Arkansas on Friday. Drew Alleman has connected on 14 of 16 field goals this year, with a long of 44 yards. His kicking in the clutch was obviously a key part of the victory against Alabama, and given the chance he should be up to the task against Arkansas. LSU has improved on kickoffs after making the change to James Hairston, but the kickoff coverage is the weakest part of our special teams, and the area that gives me the most concern in this game. Tyrann Mathieu and Odell Beckham have been workmanlike on punt returns with averages of 9.8 and 9.9 yards respectively. Mo Claiborne has been more dynamic on kick returns, averaging 28.4 yards per return including a 99 yarder for a TD against West Virginia.

Arkansas: Although not household names to most Tiger fans, (if any), Dylan Breeding and Zach Hocker have rivaled Wing and Alleman this year. Breeding has an impressive 44.6 yard average with 12 punts being downed inside the 20. Hocker has connected on 17 of 23 field goals, and has a long of 50 yards on the season. Where Arkansas has really shined this year is on kickoff and punt returns. Joe Adams has averaged 16.2 yards on each of his punt returns and has returned 3 for scores. These are indeed impressive numbers, but it’s worth noting that 2 of these scores were against Missouri St. in the first game of the year. Dennis Johnson has returned most of kicks for Arkansas and has a return average of 25.6 yards with a 98-yard TD return. Marquel Wade stats are even more impressive, an average of 29.6 yards per return plus an 85 yard TD.

Overall: I expect Coach Miles to run the ball to control the clock, and take an occasional shot down field. He will rely on his defense and special teams, and as in most games the turnover battle will be key. Arkansas has fumbled the ball 21 times this year, and lost 10. In contrast, LSU has fumbled the ball 13 times all year and only lost 3. Arkansas’ defense has 10 interceptions this year, while their quarterbacks have thrown 6. LSU is better again with 15 vs. 3 picks. I expect the Tigers to win, but I'm still deciding if 13 points is too much.