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re: Regional Projections Thread 5/1

Posted on 5/1/12 at 2:51 pm to
Posted by Beaux
Down On The Bayou
Member since Sep 2005
4585 posts
Posted on 5/1/12 at 2:51 pm to
The thing is in Kendall's poll we are number three overall but his projections we are not even a top 8 seed?
Posted by TIGER62
METAIRIE, LA
Member since Aug 2005
2219 posts
Posted on 5/1/12 at 3:11 pm to
purdue is trying to host & will - will fine out whether they are a national seed this weekend when they play ucla, but they will not host in their stadium, going to go to fort wayne or another city
Posted by lsufball19
Franklin, TN
Member since Sep 2008
64418 posts
Posted on 5/1/12 at 5:06 pm to
quote:

If Florida goes at least 18-12 in the league, I would be very surprised if they don't get a national seed. I just can't see them passing over a team with that high of a RPI and that many top 50 wins.

If they lose another series the rest of the year, they shouldn't get a national seed. Their RPI is good because they've played Florida State 3 times on top of the SEC schedule. Thing is, all those FSU games have been midweek games but the RPI doesn't know the difference. If they lose to Kentucky this weekend, they have no business being a top 8 seed. They have exactly one series win over a team with a winning SEC record, and that was the first series of the SEC season.
This post was edited on 5/1/12 at 5:08 pm
Posted by lsufball19
Franklin, TN
Member since Sep 2008
64418 posts
Posted on 5/1/12 at 5:14 pm to
quote:

The thing is in Kendall's poll we are number three overall but his projections we are not even a top 8 seed?

no kidding, and in his poll, Oregon is #13 (they're also around there in all but one major poll). oregon also has an RPI of 15 on NCAA.com, 16 on Warren Nolan, and 16 on Boyds World, yet Kendall has them as a #6. Really? It's like every one of these he comes out with has a formula (some teams can fit into both groups)
1) pick the few obvious teams
2) pick 2 teams from texas
3) pick 2 pac 10 teams
4) be completely stubborn with 1-2 teams that don't really deserve to be there

different year same shite. btw, that CBB Nation projection is the most ridiculous thing i've ever seen. at first glance, the top 8 and host sites don't look terrible but go read through some of the regionals, what a joke. someone was really lazy over there this week.
This post was edited on 5/1/12 at 5:17 pm
Posted by LSU=Champions
BAWxtard | Tier 1
Member since Apr 2004
22257 posts
Posted on 5/1/12 at 5:16 pm to
I'm angry 19, and I shouldn't be cause these don't even matter but I don't give a shite.
Posted by lsufball19
Franklin, TN
Member since Sep 2008
64418 posts
Posted on 5/1/12 at 5:19 pm to
i mean i can see leaving lsu out, they're definitely borderline, but Oregon? Rice? um, no. In response to your post in the other thread, yes Kendall Rogers is knowledgable as in he watches a ton of college baseball a lot and knows a lot, but in terms of his skills analyzing players and teams he sees, he's terrible, always has been. He does have a cool job, though.
This post was edited on 5/1/12 at 5:21 pm
Posted by lsufball19
Franklin, TN
Member since Sep 2008
64418 posts
Posted on 5/1/12 at 5:25 pm to
If I was paid to make a projection, my top 8 would be:
1. Baylor
2. Florida St.
3. Kentucky
4. Purdue
5. LSU
6. South Carolina
7. Stanford
8. NC State
Posted by DEANintheYAY
LEFT COAST
Member since Jan 2008
31975 posts
Posted on 5/1/12 at 5:35 pm to
I think Kendall is trying to predict what the NCAA will do and therefore how he ranks LSU might not influence his projections much.
Posted by lsufball19
Franklin, TN
Member since Sep 2008
64418 posts
Posted on 5/1/12 at 6:20 pm to
quote:

I think Kendall is trying to predict what the NCAA will do and therefore how he ranks LSU might not influence his projections much.

the ncaa is not going to have Oregon as a 6 or Rice as a 4. Neither team is ranked that high in the human or computer polls. the ncaa isn't going to give oregon a 10 spot when their rpi avg is 15.667 and poll avg is 10.8. kendall is doing what he always does, guesses based on personal, subjective biases. and then he goes full baseball nerd and uses whatever stat fits his argument. the pac 10 isn't very strong this year. he needs to just accept that.
Posted by TigerCub
Team Boxtard
Member since May 2006
20146 posts
Posted on 5/1/12 at 6:30 pm to
quote:

If they lose another series the rest of the year, they shouldn't get a national seed. Their RPI is good because they've played Florida State 3 times on top of the SEC schedule. Thing is, all those FSU games have been midweek games but the RPI doesn't know the difference. If they lose to Kentucky this weekend, they have no business being a top 8 seed. They have exactly one series win over a team with a winning SEC record, and that was the first series of the SEC season.


I'm not disagreeing with you, but top 25, top 50 wins are one of the big things the committee looks at. Has a team ever been passed over for a national seed with a top 3 RPI?
Posted by bubbz
Baton Rouge
Member since Mar 2006
22809 posts
Posted on 5/1/12 at 7:43 pm to
SE Baseball is out

LSU hosting paired with UNC.......
Posted by DEANintheYAY
LEFT COAST
Member since Jan 2008
31975 posts
Posted on 5/1/12 at 7:45 pm to
quote:

Fullerton Regional



YES! Although, SE Baseball is normally bad.
Posted by LSU=Champions
BAWxtard | Tier 1
Member since Apr 2004
22257 posts
Posted on 5/1/12 at 8:04 pm to
Bubbz, in that link LSU is hosting a regional but not a Super
Posted by Hurricane Mike
Member since Jun 2008
20059 posts
Posted on 5/1/12 at 9:22 pm to
Stanford must be doing some serious BJ'ing. 28-12, 10-8 in conference and the only people that seem to get it right is College Baseball Nation
Posted by bubbz
Baton Rouge
Member since Mar 2006
22809 posts
Posted on 5/1/12 at 9:50 pm to
I know...i didnt say anything about hosting a super
Posted by LSU=Champions
BAWxtard | Tier 1
Member since Apr 2004
22257 posts
Posted on 5/1/12 at 9:52 pm to
I know you didn't but this phrasing

quote:

LSU hosting paired with UNC.......


Almost implies it.

No worries either way.
Posted by Dro
Barrett's Barleycorn
Member since Feb 2010
12615 posts
Posted on 5/1/12 at 9:53 pm to
College Station Regional
Host: Texas A&M
1. Texas A&M (B12 at large) 31-13 #17
4. Rhode Island (A10 Automatic) 26019 #101
2. Arkansas (SEC at large) 31-13 #12
3. Sam Houston State (SLC Automatic) 31-12 #45





Posted by ffishstik
Baton Rouge
Member since Dec 2007
4128 posts
Posted on 5/1/12 at 10:11 pm to
It will all work it. LSU's SOS will continue to climb, they'll hit 40 wins before the SEC Tourney, and they'll gain ground.

The selection committee WILL try to limit the SEC to no more than 4 teams in Omaha, they almost always do.
Posted by lsufball19
Franklin, TN
Member since Sep 2008
64418 posts
Posted on 5/1/12 at 10:25 pm to
quote:

Stanford must be doing some serious BJ'ing. 28-12, 10-8 in conference and the only people that seem to get it right is College Baseball Nation

go read through the regional pairings and you'll change your mind. outside of the host sites, CBB Nation did a terrible job.

Fayetteville: they're not going to give Arkansas a gift like that not being a top 8 seed
Arkansas #16
Missouri State #40
Sam Houston St #45
Delaware St #190

Houston: doubtful
Rice
Ole Miss
Texas
Jackson St

Columbia: doubtful, not just because the top 3 teams are all ranked that high but also not gonna have a regional with teams all from the same state
USC #9
Clemson #33
College of Charleston #28
USC-Upstate
Posted by lsufball19
Franklin, TN
Member since Sep 2008
64418 posts
Posted on 5/1/12 at 10:27 pm to
quote:

The selection committee WILL try to limit the SEC to no more than 4 teams in Omaha, they almost always do.

well the SEC has never had more than 4 teams in Omaha, so yeah no shite.
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