#11 LSU Fighting Tigers vs. #8 Ole Miss Rebels at Oxford-University Stadium/Swayze Field in Oxford, MS.

The Fighting Tiger baseball team once again heads out on the road in conference where they have won just 1 time in 6 tries this season; this time heading north to Oxford, Mississippi, for another pivotal SEC West matchup with the Ole Miss Rebels. LSU (28-9-1, 8-6-1) has won 8 of their last nine games overall and 5 of the last 6 SEC games following a 3-5-1 start in conference play. Tuesday night, the Tigers’ bats came alive for 13 runs on 15 hits against Southern Miss in the annual Wally Pontiff Jr. Classic at Zephyr Field. Ole Miss (29-9, 9-6) is also winners of the last 8 of 9 and brings very hot bats into the weekend. Last weekend the Rebels pounded out 46 hits on the road against rival Mississippi State scoring 23 runs in total, winning that series with a 12-2 victory in the rubber game on Sunday to win the Governor’s Cup. They did not play a game during the week. LSU and Ole Miss first met in 1906 and the Tigers lead the all time series 168-143 (or 166-147 according to the OM Media Guide?) with LSU winning back to back series against the Rebels.

The series this weekend will be played Thursday through Saturday as part of ESPNU’s SEC Baseball feature every week. Thursday night’s game will start at 6:30pm and be broadcast on ESPNU and streamed online at espn3.com and watchESPN. Friday’s game will NOT be televised, and first pitch is again at 6:30pm. The first pitch for game 3 is scheduled for Saturday at 1:00pm and will be televised on FSN.

Ole Miss Rebels
Record: 29-9
Conference: 9-6, 2nd SEC west
Non-Conf: 20-3
Home: 20-2
Away: 9-6
Neutral: 0-1

Record vs. RPI: (LSU numbers in parentheses)
Team RPI: 6 (16)
vs Top 25: 1-5 (1-6)
vs Top 50: 4-7 (7-6)
vs Top 100: 14-8 (12-7)

Team Overview:
The head coach of the Ole Miss Rebels is former LSU catcher Mike Bianco. Through 13 years under Bianco, the Rebels have never won an outright SEC western division or overall title, but did win 1 SEC tournament championship in 2006. The Rebels have not been to Omaha since 1972, despite making it to 4 super regionals, hosting 3 of them, in Bianco’s tenure. The 2014 Ole Miss squad is a veteran group looking to change that history since this senior class has not finished better than 4th in the SEC west the last three seasons. They have a very solid balance of pitching, hitting, defense, and leadership that could carry them deep into the postseason if they keep up their current hot streak. Ole Miss is 2nd in the SEC in both team batting average and team ERA. The Rebels are hitting .296 in SEC games while LSU is hitting .231 in conference contests. Team ERA in SEC games is 2.42 while LSU’s team ERA jumps to 3.68 when only including conference games.

Team Stat Comparison (LSU in parentheses)
Runs/game scored: 6.0 (6.1)
Runs/game allowed: 2.8 (2.7)

Team ERA: 2.19 (2.44)
Opponent ERA: 5.36 (5.22)

Team BA: .309 (.273)
Opponent BA: .226 (.207)

Team Fielding %: .974 (.976)
Opponent Fielding %: .970 (.965)

Good OOC wins: UCF (3-0), Southeastern LA (2-0), Arkansas State (1-0)
Bad OOC losses: Georgia State (2-1)

SEC Series Wins: vs Missouri (3-0), vs Auburn (3-0), @ Mississippi State (2-1)
SEC Series Losses: @ South Carolina (1-2), @ Alabama (0-3)

Common OOC Opponents:
Southeastern LA: 2-0 (LSU 1-0)
Southern Miss: 0-1 (LSU 1-0)

Starting Pitching:
ESPNU is in for a treat on Thursday night with a top ten matchup between two legitimate aces. Chris Ellis (5-0) toes the home rubber in the series opener facing off against Aaron Nola. Ellis is a big 6’5 right hander who is projected as high as the first round in the MLB draft this summer. His velocity has greatly improved since his freshman season and now consistently sits 93-95 with the four seam FB. He has developed a very good low 80’s change up with sinking action and will mix in that change with both fastballs. Ellis will generally save his 12-6 curve for the 2nd and 3rd times through the order to give hitters a different look. Ellis has 9 starts on the season and did not allow a run in 5 of those starts. This will be Aaron Nola’s 2nd career start against the Rebels. Nola earned the victory over Ole Miss as a freshman, but with the division wrapped up, he rested that final weekend of 2013 in preparation for postseason play.

Saturday will feature yet another southpaw showdown between Christian Trent and LSU freshman Jared Poché. A red-shirt sophomore, Trent is an LSU transfer and a native of Madisonville, LA. Following his exit from the LSU program, the St. Paul graduate spent a year at Delgado in New Orleans where he won 9 games in 13 starts. Trent is a typical lefty in that he pounds the strike zone and throws in the upper 80s. He has been clocked as high as 92 with his fastball. He has an outstanding swing-and-miss slider as well as a good changeup. Christian has been known throughout his pitching career to go deep into games and very often will close them out.

On Sunday, Bianco will send out Sam Smith. The junior right-hander has become a reliable Sunday starter for the Rebels, something that LSU has lacked this season. Smith is also a Louisiana native from Lake Charles where he graduated from Barbe. This is his second season as the Sunday starter for Ole Miss. Smith has improved velocity working with his fastball 91-93. He will throw four different pitches, mixing a curveball in with a hard 82mph slider. He also throws a solid change up.

LSU’s starter is unannounced at this time. Since moving Poché to the second spot in the rotation, LSU’s Sunday starters have gone a combined 0-2 with a 12.46 ERA, allowing 16 hits and 12 earned runs in just 8.2 IP over 4 starts. Parker Bugg could get his first career start, taking a valuable arm out of the pen. My guess is that Mainieri and Dunn give Bouman another shot. If not in favor of Bouman or Bugg, they may look toward veteran Kurt McCune, who has plenty of experience against the Rebels, earning the victory in a Friday night start back on April 1, 2011. In 4 appearances, McCune has tallied 13.2 innings allowing 5 earned runs and striking out 10 against Ole Miss. Aside from one mistake pitch that left the yard, Alden Cartwright’s first start could b enough for him to get the nod on Saturday. It is really anyone’s guess at this point.

Thursday's Pitching Matchup:
LSU - Jr. RHP Aaron Nola (7-1, 0.70 ERA, 64.0 IP, 31 H, 5 ER, 13 BB, 84 K, .143 OBA)
OM - Jr. RHP Chris Ellis (5-0, 1.81 ERA, 54.2 IP, 48 H, 11 ER, 17 BB, 35 K, .246 OBA)

Friday's Pitching Matchup:
LSU - Fr. LHP Jared Poché (6-2, 2.54 ERA, 49.2 IP, 37 H, 14 ER, 15 BB, 34 K, .214 OBA)
OM - So. LHP Christian Trent (4-0, 2.44 ERA, 59.0 IP, 46 H, 16 ER, 8 BB, 49 K, .216 OBA)

Saturday's Pitching Matchup:
OM - Jr. RHP Sam Smith (5-2, 2.30 ERA, 54.2 IP, 52 H, 14 ER, 11 BB, 30 K, .250 OBA)
LSU - TBA

(Part 1 of 2) continued in next post....

This post was edited on 4/17/14 at 7:49 am