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Our margin of error to make it as an at-large

Posted on 2/12/16 at 3:01 pm
Posted by ULSU
Tasmania
Member since Jan 2014
3931 posts
Posted on 2/12/16 at 3:01 pm
We have 1 Top 50 win on the year so far (we had like 6 last year).

We need more.

HAVE to beat A&M at home tomorrow
HAVE to beat Bama
HAVE to split with Florida/Kentucky at least
HAVE to win 2/3 from Arkansas, Tennessee, and Missouri
CANNOT lose to any of the lower 10 teams in the SEC

Short of this (2 losses MAX), it seems unlikely we make it without winning the SECT. How far off am I?
Posted by Hold That Tiger 10
Member since Oct 2013
21012 posts
Posted on 2/12/16 at 3:03 pm to
quote:

How far off am I?


Probably pretty far off.

This year is not last year in terms of the field. Also, don't forget that SMU and Louisville are two at-large's who will not be playing in the tournament.

And...we have Ben Simmons this year.
Posted by Gleaux93
Member since Nov 2015
645 posts
Posted on 2/12/16 at 3:04 pm to
really far off.

SEC sent 4 teams (right?) last year.

Finish top 4 and don't go two and 'que in the tourney and we in
Posted by LSUButt
Lowcountry
Member since Jan 2006
14928 posts
Posted on 2/12/16 at 3:04 pm to
Way easier way to put it is win all home games, win 1 road game...that puts you at 13-5
Posted by BayouBengals03
lsu14always
Member since Nov 2007
99999 posts
Posted on 2/12/16 at 3:05 pm to
quote:

We have 1 Top 50 win on the year so far (we had like 6 last year).

Pretty sure Alabama just moved into the top 50
Posted by BayouBengals03
lsu14always
Member since Nov 2007
99999 posts
Posted on 2/12/16 at 3:06 pm to
13-5 will share the conference title.

14-4 will win it outright.

We'll be 13-4 going into the game in Rupp. We lose, we likely share the title with someone (probably Kentucky). We win, we win the conference outright.

That'll be a fun game.
Posted by ULSU
Tasmania
Member since Jan 2014
3931 posts
Posted on 2/12/16 at 3:06 pm to
quote:

Way easier way to put it is win all home games, win 1 road game...that puts you at 13-5


That's fair, and works out to 5-2 over the last 7, which is what I have.

Any way you cut it, seems like more than 2 losses from here on out and things will be dicey.
Posted by lwlsu96
Member since Oct 2011
5404 posts
Posted on 2/12/16 at 3:14 pm to
Unless we have a total collapse and go like 2-5, I think we'll make the dance.
Posted by TigerBait1127
Houston
Member since Jun 2005
47336 posts
Posted on 2/12/16 at 3:16 pm to
quote:

We have 1 Top 50 win on the year so far (we had like 6 last year).


We have two, and this isn't last year. Lots of weak bubble résumés.

Posted by ULSU
Tasmania
Member since Jan 2014
3931 posts
Posted on 2/12/16 at 3:26 pm to
quote:

Unless we have a total collapse and go like 2-5, I think we'll make the dance.


At 4-3 the rest of the way, I don't see us making it without getting to the finals of the SECT. That's 12-6 in conference, and would likely be good for 5th or so overall.
Posted by BigDawg0420
Hamsterdam
Member since Apr 2010
7396 posts
Posted on 2/12/16 at 3:29 pm to
We have to have a terrible end of season stretch to miss the tournament. If we end up on the bubble it will be hard for the committee to keep Simmons out
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