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Started By
Message
LSU's season boils down to one game at Rupp
Posted on 3/1/16 at 11:07 pm
Posted on 3/1/16 at 11:07 pm
and the BPI doesn't give us much of a chance. Hopefully the guys will use that as motivation.
Posted on 3/1/16 at 11:17 pm to Jim Rockford
What percentage chance does BPI give us?
Posted on 3/1/16 at 11:18 pm to The Seaward
84% chance of Kentucky winning is what they said on SECN
Posted on 3/1/16 at 11:20 pm to Jim Rockford
Do you think LSU gets a bid if they beat UK and then lose in the first round of the SECt?
Posted on 3/1/16 at 11:20 pm to Jim Rockford
Let's be realistic. LSU has a 10% chance of winning this game. That may be generous. SEC tournament championship is their only shot. That is also a 10% chance, tops.
Insert obligatory Jim Carrey gif here: "So you're saying there is a chance?"
Insert obligatory Jim Carrey gif here: "So you're saying there is a chance?"
Posted on 3/1/16 at 11:20 pm to CelticDog
Lunardi says they have to beat Kentucky and get to the SECT finals.
Posted on 3/1/16 at 11:22 pm to Jim Rockford
Damn, that seems really high. I did see on ESPN today that UK has outscored opponents by .17 points per possession in SEC play. LSU is at even. That's a huge difference. And it's in Rupp. Going to be tough. No excuse to not come out giving it their all though.
This post was edited on 3/1/16 at 11:26 pm
Posted on 3/1/16 at 11:26 pm to The Seaward
quote:
I saw on ESPN today that UK has outscored opponents by .17 points per possession in SEC play.
I also came across an interesting stat recently. When playing each other this year, LSU has outscored Kentucky by 18.
Posted on 3/1/16 at 11:34 pm to Jim Rockford
Funny how LSU always finds itself just having to beat Alabama in Bryant Denny or just beating Kentucky in Rupp
Posted on 3/1/16 at 11:45 pm to Jim Rockford
quote:
Lunardi says they have to beat Kentucky and get to the SECT finals.
He's very likely right.
Posted on 3/1/16 at 11:48 pm to CelticDog
quote:
Do you think LSU gets a bid if they beat UK and then lose in the first round of the SECt?
No.
They have to beat UK and make the final game in the tourny.
Posted on 3/2/16 at 12:21 am to CelticDog
If they beat Kentucky, they won't play in the first or 2nd round. Actually, it's possible that LSU can lose and still not play until the 3rd round vs.
a.) 5 or 12/13 seed
or
b.) 6 or 11 seed
a.) 5 or 12/13 seed
or
b.) 6 or 11 seed
Posted on 3/2/16 at 12:27 am to BayouBengals03
A lot of factors out there, but I think he's probably right because LSU needs to play in 3 or 4 more SEC games to help offset their OOC RPI. A win at Kentucky will put them pretty damn close already. That would guarantee them a 3rd round game. They probably need to beat another top 6 caliber SEC team in the tourney and that may not be possible in that 3rd round game. In which case, they would need to win semi game in round 4. However, if they beat Kentucky and they play and beat Vandy in the 3rd round, it may be enough.
Posted on 3/2/16 at 1:12 am to easy money
RPI update
We are down there, but Alabama and Florida dropped about 10 spots and South Carolina is close to dropping out of the top 50. Kentucky moves up to 11.
Marquette and NC State have big games that could help them slide into the top 100.
A win at Kentucky would get LSU pretty close to where they need to be...probably around 65-70 at least. A loss will probably still help LSU move up to close to 80. They will need to take care of some business, but in conference they will be compared to Florida, Georgia, and Alabama and they need to "look" better than those 3 from here on out.
Out of conference performance killed LSU. They are being punished for games that happened in November. That's the way it goes.
We are down there, but Alabama and Florida dropped about 10 spots and South Carolina is close to dropping out of the top 50. Kentucky moves up to 11.
Marquette and NC State have big games that could help them slide into the top 100.
A win at Kentucky would get LSU pretty close to where they need to be...probably around 65-70 at least. A loss will probably still help LSU move up to close to 80. They will need to take care of some business, but in conference they will be compared to Florida, Georgia, and Alabama and they need to "look" better than those 3 from here on out.
Out of conference performance killed LSU. They are being punished for games that happened in November. That's the way it goes.
Posted on 3/2/16 at 6:16 am to T
quote:
I also came across an interesting stat recently. When playing each other this year, LSU has outscored Kentucky by 18.
Cute, but that's only 1 game. Very small sample size. Anything can happen in one game.
The stat was over 17 games of SEC play. Much more reliable. Also factor in that the game is at Rupp, potential SEC title on the line for them, revenge on their minds for getting thumped by us earlier this year. That all adds up to some very longs odds for us. But of course not impossible.
Posted on 3/2/16 at 6:29 am to Jim Rockford
A win will not get them in. They need to win the SEC tourney. RPI won't be high enough.
Posted on 3/2/16 at 6:33 am to TigerGM
They don't HAVE to win the sec tourney to get in. Where have you been?
Posted on 3/2/16 at 7:58 am to easy money
quote:don't you dare say this to tommy, camp, tigerbait, pnels, butt, etc. they flamed me incessantly for 6 weeks for suggesting that dec games actually count and that the tigers were in a tough spot because of them
Out of conference performance killed LSU. They are being punished for games that happened in November
btw, the season doesn't boil down to the game at rupp. it's not like if lsu wins, they're in, lose and they're out. it's not that simple. as someone pointed out in this thread, what other teams do has a bearing on lsu's situation.
Posted on 3/2/16 at 8:02 am to teeMike
quote:
Let's be realistic. LSU has a 10% chance of winning this game. That may be generous. SEC tournament championship is their only shot. That is also a 10% chance, tops.
So 10% chance of winning against UK, and same chance to win an entire tournament That UK is competing in?
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