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Message
LSU's Real Odds of winning the CWS
Posted on 5/31/17 at 3:01 pm
Posted on 5/31/17 at 3:01 pm
To estimate LSU’s chances of actually winning the CWS, the odds of getting there must be calculated along with the odds of winning it once there. These calculations are based on estimates, and these estimates are opinions which may vary from one person to the next.
First, LSU appears to have a huge advantage in its Regional. I am therefore, giving a 95% probability (which is an estimate) that LSU will win its Regional and progress to the Super Regional.
The Super Regional figures to be tougher; but, due to LSU’s recent hitting and pitching, I am providing an estimate of a 75% probability that LSU wins its Super Regional and progresses to the CWS. This is actually a significantly higher probability than LSU's actual performance in recent years would suggest.
Based on these figures, and using Bayesian statistics, this makes LSU's probability of simply advancing to Omaha 71% (0.95 x 0.75).
Las Vegas gives LSU 15/2 odds of winning the CWS. This calculates to an 11.8% probability of winning the CWS, should they make it to Omaha. (Note that this is only slightly less than the 12.5% probability of winning the CWS if all teams were considered equal.)
Using the 71% probability of getting to the CWS and the 11.8% probability of winning it all once there, the probability of LSU getting there and then winning it all is 0.08, or 8%. (0.71 x 0.118)
These figures reflect the difficulty of getting to Omaha and then winning it all once there. Some of you likely think LSU’s chances are better for a variety of reasons, and I hope you are right; but these are the hard, cold probabilities. I now await your recriminations.
First, LSU appears to have a huge advantage in its Regional. I am therefore, giving a 95% probability (which is an estimate) that LSU will win its Regional and progress to the Super Regional.
The Super Regional figures to be tougher; but, due to LSU’s recent hitting and pitching, I am providing an estimate of a 75% probability that LSU wins its Super Regional and progresses to the CWS. This is actually a significantly higher probability than LSU's actual performance in recent years would suggest.
Based on these figures, and using Bayesian statistics, this makes LSU's probability of simply advancing to Omaha 71% (0.95 x 0.75).
Las Vegas gives LSU 15/2 odds of winning the CWS. This calculates to an 11.8% probability of winning the CWS, should they make it to Omaha. (Note that this is only slightly less than the 12.5% probability of winning the CWS if all teams were considered equal.)
Using the 71% probability of getting to the CWS and the 11.8% probability of winning it all once there, the probability of LSU getting there and then winning it all is 0.08, or 8%. (0.71 x 0.118)
These figures reflect the difficulty of getting to Omaha and then winning it all once there. Some of you likely think LSU’s chances are better for a variety of reasons, and I hope you are right; but these are the hard, cold probabilities. I now await your recriminations.
22
Posted on 5/31/17 at 3:02 pm to MidCityTiger
quote:
First, LSU appears to have a huge advantage in its Regional. I am therefore, giving a 95% probability (which is an estimate) that LSU will win its Regional and progress to the Super Regional.
What's the percent of error for this estimate?
Posted on 5/31/17 at 3:03 pm to MidCityTiger
Posted on 5/31/17 at 3:03 pm to Broski
quote:
What's the percent of error for this estimate?
95%
Posted on 5/31/17 at 3:05 pm to MidCityTiger
No the endpoint would be 11.8% making the chance of winning the CWS once getting there 16.56%.
(95%)(75%)(16.56%)=11.8% to win it all.
(95%)(75%)(16.56%)=11.8% to win it all.
This post was edited on 5/31/17 at 3:08 pm
Posted on 5/31/17 at 3:07 pm to MidCityTiger
Does the Vegas Odds not already consider the chance that LSU could lose a regional or super regional? I'm guessing you can put money on those odds right now, which means those odds already incorporate the regional and super regional.
Posted on 5/31/17 at 3:11 pm to MidCityTiger
Chris Burke's panther cologne says 70% of the time we win every time
Posted on 5/31/17 at 3:11 pm to MidCityTiger
quote:Wrong.
I am therefore, giving a 95% probability (which is an estimate) that LSU will win its Regional
quote:Wrong.
I am providing an estimate of a 75% probability that LSU wins its Super Regional and progresses to the CWS.
quote:Vegas odds include all games. So all your work has been wasted.
Using the 71% probability of getting to the CWS and the 11.8% probability of winning it all once there, the probability of LSU getting there and then winning it all is 0.08, or 8%. (0.71 x 0.118)
Posted on 5/31/17 at 3:14 pm to ell_13
quote:
Vegas odds include all games. So all your work has been wasted
This. So much this.
Posted on 5/31/17 at 3:29 pm to MidCityTiger
Damn you just wasted your time and more importantly our time.
Posted on 5/31/17 at 3:38 pm to MidCityTiger
Why do so many people on TD CONSTANTLY ignore or fail to understand that "Vegas odds" do not, never have and never will reflect any sort of true measure of teams' actual abilities and chances relative to each other?
"Vegas odds" simply reflect the point at which the books can get equal action on both sides of a bet, not the relative ability or chances of the team. If one team has a more rabid fan base than another, the line will be skewed against the more favored team because "Vegas" will have to attract more action on the other side. There might be some casual correlation, but it will be skewed by actual or anticipated bettor behavior.
So, the entire analysis is flawed by an erroneous assumption.
"Vegas odds" simply reflect the point at which the books can get equal action on both sides of a bet, not the relative ability or chances of the team. If one team has a more rabid fan base than another, the line will be skewed against the more favored team because "Vegas" will have to attract more action on the other side. There might be some casual correlation, but it will be skewed by actual or anticipated bettor behavior.
So, the entire analysis is flawed by an erroneous assumption.
This post was edited on 5/31/17 at 3:39 pm
Posted on 5/31/17 at 3:38 pm to MidCityTiger
You're forgetting to account for variable change! 
Posted on 5/31/17 at 3:39 pm to BigSlick
quote:
"Vegas odds" simply reflect the point at which the books can get equal action on both sides of a bet,
How do you think they decide the initial lines that would, in theory, get them equal action?
Posted on 5/31/17 at 3:41 pm to MidCityTiger
Posted on 5/31/17 at 3:42 pm to MidCityTiger
Now take all those percentages and flush them
Because this is baseball
Because this is baseball
Posted on 5/31/17 at 3:42 pm to Who_Dat_Tiger
I have learned to respect Vegas odds as a predictive tool.
Do you have a better one for the prospects of LSU winning the CWS?
If so, lay it out?
Do you have a better one for the prospects of LSU winning the CWS?
If so, lay it out?
Posted on 5/31/17 at 3:49 pm to MidCityTiger
Yay yet another thread
Posted on 5/31/17 at 3:49 pm to Broski
quote:
How do you think they decide the initial lines that would, in theory, get them equal action?
I don't know, but I THINK they no doubt consider all the teams' abilities relative to each other, probably start there, but unless they're fools, they will also consider their past history with each fan base and adjust the lines accordingly.
If their history indicates that they'll get heavy LSU betting, they'll adjust the line away from LSU before they even publish it.
It's not an exact science. That's why lines change, but I think they've got the art down pretty well.
Posted on 5/31/17 at 3:50 pm to ell_13
You've been wrong all year. Never stopped you.
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