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LSU Basketball: Improved or Inflated?
Posted by SouthOfSouth on 12/13/12 at 10:23 am20
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With 20% of the season in the books, the Tigers are 6-0. I thought it was a perfect time for my first episode of Improved or Inflated?. In this article I will talk about statistics that LSU or individuals have improved and if it will continue through the season or if it is inflated due to sample size or competition.
LSU's RPI (NOW: 26, WAS: 86 ) - Inflated. LSU's RPI will not stay in the 20's but I will be shocked if the Tigers finish worse than 86. The Tigers are learning to play together and more wins are imminent. Their schedule looks like a good fit, and if they continue to improve, their RPI will follow suit. Prediction: 55th RPI.
LSU's Points per Game (NOW: 79.8, WAS: 65.4) - Improved. In the end, I am going to predict that LSU scores 75.4 points per game. Not only does this team have more players who can score with the additions of Morgan, Collins, Carmouche, Coleman, and Hammink but the Tigers uptempo style bodes well for an improved scoring number.
LSU's Rebounds per Game (NOW: 44.2, WAS: 36.9) - Inflated. LSU is top 10 in the country in rebounds, but I do not see it continuing at such a high pace. LSU hasn't played many "big" teams with players who can rumble down low. Once LSU gets into the meat of the SEC schedule I think this number falls back to earth. I'll predict around 39.5 per game, still better than last year but mostly due to more shots being taken rather than improved rebounding.
LSU's Steals per Game (NOW:13.2, WAS: 7.0) - Improved. LSU leads the nation with over 13 steals per game. I think LSU ends the year leading the nation around 12.5 steals per game. When LSU brings the heat, opponents turn it over. I don't think it stops even after the opponents improve. Anthony Hickey leads the nation, Malik Morgan is 6th in the nation in steals per possession, and Charles Carmouche is 16th in the nation in steals per possession. WOW.
LSU's Three Point Percentage (NOW: 37.8%, WAS: 32.6%) - Improved. LSU currently has 5 players shooting over 40% from beyond the arc, 3 of which are newcomers. LSU has more weapons outside and are less prone to shooting bad shots. This equates to a better percentage. I'll predict around 36.5% for the year, much above the 33.1% NCAA average.
Johnny O'Bryant's Rebounds per Game (NOW: 9.0, WAS: 6.8) - Improved. Johnny O'Bryant gets offensive and defensive rebounds at an alarming rate. He is top 100 in both offensive (15th) and defensive (90th) rebounds per shot. He blocks out better and has gained strength to hold them in a big pack. I think this number improves to almost 9.8 per game by the time the season ends.
Anthony Hickey's Steals per Game (NOW: 4.4, WAS: 2.1) - Improved. Anthony loves to sneak up on unsuspecting victims and pick their pocket. He likes to jump in front of passes. Most of all, the fast pace LSU runs forces opponents to make mistakes, and Hickey is there to capitalize. I project Hickey's average to end up around 3.9 per game, a vast improvement over the 2.1 of last season.
Andrew Del Piero's Field Goal Percentage (NOW 70.6%, WAS: 16.7%) - Improved. ADP has been this season's biggest surprise. He has been efficient in his growing minutes and has gained tons of confidence. While the 70.6% isn't really sustainable for Andrew I think he ends the season over 60% from the field. He doesn't take shots if he doesn't think he can hit it.
Agree? Disagree? Others?
With 20% of the season in the books, the Tigers are 6-0. I thought it was a perfect time for my first episode of Improved or Inflated?. In this article I will talk about statistics that LSU or individuals have improved and if it will continue through the season or if it is inflated due to sample size or competition.
LSU's RPI (NOW: 26, WAS: 86 ) - Inflated. LSU's RPI will not stay in the 20's but I will be shocked if the Tigers finish worse than 86. The Tigers are learning to play together and more wins are imminent. Their schedule looks like a good fit, and if they continue to improve, their RPI will follow suit. Prediction: 55th RPI.
LSU's Points per Game (NOW: 79.8, WAS: 65.4) - Improved. In the end, I am going to predict that LSU scores 75.4 points per game. Not only does this team have more players who can score with the additions of Morgan, Collins, Carmouche, Coleman, and Hammink but the Tigers uptempo style bodes well for an improved scoring number.
LSU's Rebounds per Game (NOW: 44.2, WAS: 36.9) - Inflated. LSU is top 10 in the country in rebounds, but I do not see it continuing at such a high pace. LSU hasn't played many "big" teams with players who can rumble down low. Once LSU gets into the meat of the SEC schedule I think this number falls back to earth. I'll predict around 39.5 per game, still better than last year but mostly due to more shots being taken rather than improved rebounding.
LSU's Steals per Game (NOW:13.2, WAS: 7.0) - Improved. LSU leads the nation with over 13 steals per game. I think LSU ends the year leading the nation around 12.5 steals per game. When LSU brings the heat, opponents turn it over. I don't think it stops even after the opponents improve. Anthony Hickey leads the nation, Malik Morgan is 6th in the nation in steals per possession, and Charles Carmouche is 16th in the nation in steals per possession. WOW.
LSU's Three Point Percentage (NOW: 37.8%, WAS: 32.6%) - Improved. LSU currently has 5 players shooting over 40% from beyond the arc, 3 of which are newcomers. LSU has more weapons outside and are less prone to shooting bad shots. This equates to a better percentage. I'll predict around 36.5% for the year, much above the 33.1% NCAA average.
Johnny O'Bryant's Rebounds per Game (NOW: 9.0, WAS: 6.8) - Improved. Johnny O'Bryant gets offensive and defensive rebounds at an alarming rate. He is top 100 in both offensive (15th) and defensive (90th) rebounds per shot. He blocks out better and has gained strength to hold them in a big pack. I think this number improves to almost 9.8 per game by the time the season ends.
Anthony Hickey's Steals per Game (NOW: 4.4, WAS: 2.1) - Improved. Anthony loves to sneak up on unsuspecting victims and pick their pocket. He likes to jump in front of passes. Most of all, the fast pace LSU runs forces opponents to make mistakes, and Hickey is there to capitalize. I project Hickey's average to end up around 3.9 per game, a vast improvement over the 2.1 of last season.
Andrew Del Piero's Field Goal Percentage (NOW 70.6%, WAS: 16.7%) - Improved. ADP has been this season's biggest surprise. He has been efficient in his growing minutes and has gained tons of confidence. While the 70.6% isn't really sustainable for Andrew I think he ends the season over 60% from the field. He doesn't take shots if he doesn't think he can hit it.
Agree? Disagree? Others?
re: LSU Basketball: Improved or Inflated?Posted by TheDoc on 12/13/12 at 10:25 am to SouthOfSouth
quote:
Andrew Del Piero's Field Goal Percentage (NOW 70.6%, WAS: 16.7%) -
Never seen a player progress so quickly
re: LSU Basketball: Improved or Inflated?Posted by crankbait on 12/13/12 at 10:27 am to SouthOfSouth
quote:
Andrew Del Piero's Field Goal Percentage (NOW 70.6%, WAS: 16.7%)
lulz
seriously though, you should get paid for this stuff. nice write up
re: LSU Basketball: Improved or Inflated?Posted by catholictigerfan on 12/13/12 at 10:27 am to SouthOfSouth
let me see the stats when we get a few games through in SEC play then I'll know if this is improved or inflated.
also is del piero the guy who played tuba in tiger band?
also is del piero the guy who played tuba in tiger band?
This post was edited on 12/13 at 10:29 am
re: LSU Basketball: Improved or Inflated?Posted by Iam4LSUnTN on 12/13/12 at 10:27 am to SouthOfSouth
Excellent analysis
re: LSU Basketball: Improved or Inflated?Posted by BasilBogomil on 12/13/12 at 10:28 am to SouthOfSouth
Nice read. If Johnny Basketball comes back next year, LSU will have a NCAA tournament squad.
I think we are a bubble team right now, probably NIT bound. That is a helluva an improvement in just one year.
I think we are a bubble team right now, probably NIT bound. That is a helluva an improvement in just one year.
re: LSU Basketball: Improved or Inflated?Posted by ProjectP2294 on 12/13/12 at 10:30 am to catholictigerfan
quote:
let me see the stats when we get a few games through in SEC play then I'll know if this is improved or inflated.
I don't understand this comment. It's like you didn't get the point of the piece at all.
re: LSU Basketball: Improved or Inflated?Posted by eetiger on 12/13/12 at 10:33 am to BasilBogomil
quote:
I think we are a bubble team right now, probably NIT bound. That is a helluva an improvement in just one year.
Have you seen the rest of the SEC records? I think if Hickey comes back and this team stays healthy they have a better chance than NIT.
The SEC is PATHETIC this year!!
re: LSU Basketball: Improved or Inflated?Posted by SouthOfSouth on 12/13/12 at 10:37 am to catholictigerfan
quote:
also is del piero the guy who played tuba in tiger band?
He sure is. Soon to be the most famous 7'3" Tuba player alive!
The SEC has gradually gotten worse since they started firing the coaches in the league who knew how to recruit talent. All these schools brought in the new regime of coaches and we now have a league that is awful. CJJ is kinda of from the old school of thinking and understands the type of talent it takes to compete in this league. It is also nice to see some real coaching going on, something these kids have not gotten under TJ. It is pretty obvious the improvement of JOB, Hickey and Stringer.
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re: LSU Basketball: Improved or Inflated?Posted by AlxTgr on 12/13/12 at 10:42 am to SouthOfSouth
quote:
Agree
re: LSU Basketball: Improved or Inflated?Posted by SouthOfSouth on 12/13/12 at 10:48 am to BasilBogomil
quote:
BasilBogomil
re: LSU Basketball: Improved or Inflated?Posted by SuperFanDan on 12/13/12 at 11:19 am to catholictigerfan
quote:
also is del piero the guy who played tuba in tiger band?
re: LSU Basketball: Improved or Inflated?Posted by Summer of George on 12/13/12 at 12:19 pm to ProjectP2294
quote:
I don't understand this comment. It's like you didn't get the point of the piece at all.
just what i was thinking
re: LSU Basketball: Improved or Inflated?Posted by SouthOfSouth on 12/13/12 at 12:25 pm to Summer of George
The Tigers just getting onto their plane headed to Boise from Denver International Airport.
Corban Collins
Anthony Hickey
Corban Collins
Anthony Hickey
This post was edited on 12/13 at 12:35 pm
re: LSU Basketball: Improved or Inflated?Posted by EPORE on 12/13/12 at 12:56 pm to SouthOfSouth
This LSU basketball team is improved in the 2 most imprtant categories IMO:
1) Coaching
2) Attitude/ Intensity
I am very excited for the future of our hoops program under Coach JJ.
1) Coaching
2) Attitude/ Intensity
I am very excited for the future of our hoops program under Coach JJ.
re: LSU Basketball: Improved or Inflated?Posted by MRTigerFan on 12/13/12 at 12:56 pm to SouthOfSouth
quote:
SouthOfSouth
Man I really appreciate your write-ups on the progress of the BBall team. You are single handidly increasing the interest for the LSU BBall team more than anyone not named Johnny Jones. Great Read. I agree with just about everything you said.
re: LSU Basketball: Improved or Inflated?Posted by EPORE on 12/13/12 at 12:57 pm to MRTigerFan
quote:
quote:
SouthOfSouth
Man I really appreciate your write-ups on the progress of the BBall team. You are single handidly increasing the interest for the LSU BBall team more than anyone not named Johnny Jones. Great Read. I agree with just about everything you said.
This 100%
re: LSU Basketball: Improved or Inflated?Posted by LSUGrad9295 on 12/13/12 at 1:00 pm to SouthOfSouth
quote:
LSU's Points per Game (NOW: 79.8, WAS: 65.4) - Improved. In the end, I am going to predict that LSU scores 75.4
I think that final prediction is a bit high. I think LSU will average somewhere in the mid-upper 60's in league play. As mediocre as the SEC may be, the teams are still tougher than anyone we have played to date.
quote:
LSU's Steals per Game (NOW:13.2, WAS: 7.0) - Improved. LSU leads the nation with over 13 steals per game. I think LSU ends the year leading the nation around 12.5 steals per game
Prediction is a bit high (see above for reasoning) but we will still obliterate the 7.0 from last year.
I need to see how these next 3 games play out before I am ready to start making season long predictions.
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