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Message
Here's an indication of excellent season (stats)
Posted on 10/14/15 at 10:20 am
Posted on 10/14/15 at 10:20 am
Using Points Scored vs. Points allowed seems to be one of the easiest ways to assess a team.
Since 2002
In the 5 years we averaged winning by 15 points or more we've at least PLAYED for a SEC championship 80 percent of the time.
conversely...
In the 8 years we averaged winning by less than 15 points we played for the championship ZERO percent of the time.
Our current point advantage is +15.8 that puts us at a high ceiling 11-2 team.
Here's teams since 2002 with their scoring advantage and wins/losses.
Grouped by 10 or less, 10-14.9, 15-19.9, 20+
You can see an obvious trend.
2002 +6.5 8-5
2008 +6.7 8-5
2009 +8.6 9-4
2014 +10.1 8-5
2004 +11.6 9-3
2010 +11.5 11-2
2012 +12.3 10-3
2013 +13.8 10-3
2005 +15.3 11-2
2007 +18.7 12-2
2015 +15.8 5-0
2003 +22.9 13-1
2006 +21.1 11-2
2011 +24.4 13-1
(Bold denotes SEC champions, Italic denotes (only)SEC west champion, Underline denotes national championship)
If we can beat Florida, and A&M beats Bama there is an excellent chance that we win the west and play for more than we have played for in awhile.
I understand that the win differential may drop with our upcoming stretch, but I can realistically see this team beating A&M, Arkansas, and WKU by more than 15. Florida, Bama, and Ole Miss less than 15... Keeping our average around the same.
Since 2002
In the 5 years we averaged winning by 15 points or more we've at least PLAYED for a SEC championship 80 percent of the time.
conversely...
In the 8 years we averaged winning by less than 15 points we played for the championship ZERO percent of the time.
Our current point advantage is +15.8 that puts us at a high ceiling 11-2 team.
Here's teams since 2002 with their scoring advantage and wins/losses.
Grouped by 10 or less, 10-14.9, 15-19.9, 20+
You can see an obvious trend.
2002 +6.5 8-5
2008 +6.7 8-5
2009 +8.6 9-4
2014 +10.1 8-5
2004 +11.6 9-3
2010 +11.5 11-2
2012 +12.3 10-3
2013 +13.8 10-3
2005 +15.3 11-2
2007 +18.7 12-2
2015 +15.8 5-0
2003 +22.9 13-1
2006 +21.1 11-2
2011 +24.4 13-1
(Bold denotes SEC champions, Italic denotes (only)SEC west champion, Underline denotes national championship)
If we can beat Florida, and A&M beats Bama there is an excellent chance that we win the west and play for more than we have played for in awhile.
I understand that the win differential may drop with our upcoming stretch, but I can realistically see this team beating A&M, Arkansas, and WKU by more than 15. Florida, Bama, and Ole Miss less than 15... Keeping our average around the same.
Posted on 10/14/15 at 10:25 am to tgerb8
interesting and solid work
amazing how tough the schedule was in 2011 and we averaged a 24.4 margin of victory
take away the bama game and it's even higher only team to give us a pulse that season
amazing how tough the schedule was in 2011 and we averaged a 24.4 margin of victory
take away the bama game and it's even higher only team to give us a pulse that season
This post was edited on 10/14/15 at 10:26 am
Posted on 10/14/15 at 10:25 am to tgerb8
.8 points over the breakline and we haven't played the meat of our schedule. I would hold off on the party plans just yet.
Posted on 10/14/15 at 10:27 am to Brageous
Very well done.
A couple of things to keep in mind, although I'm sure it applies to other years as well, is were inside the red zone and took a knee or didn't try to score in our last three games.
Then of course the big thing you have to factor in is no Mcneese game, which would've been at least a 30 point victory you have to think
A couple of things to keep in mind, although I'm sure it applies to other years as well, is were inside the red zone and took a knee or didn't try to score in our last three games.
Then of course the big thing you have to factor in is no Mcneese game, which would've been at least a 30 point victory you have to think
This post was edited on 10/14/15 at 10:28 am
Posted on 10/14/15 at 10:32 am to tgerb8
quote:
If we can beat Florida, and A&M beats Bama there is an excellent chance that we win the west and play for more than we have played for in awhile.
LSU still has to play Ole Miss at their place and A&M. Neither will be easy. I'm optimistic, but LSU hasn't gotten to the meat of the schedule yet. Plus, they've caught good breaks to the this point (now 4 straight backup QBs faced, USC at home)
They've done what they've had to do to this point. Now the fun starts Sat. night.
Posted on 10/14/15 at 10:39 am to tigerfan88
quote:
Then of course the big thing you have to factor in is no Mcneese game, which would've been at least a 30 point victory you have to think
That's true. I didn't think of that.
Being as unbiased as possible I can see a "medium case" scenario with our remaining games at +7, +21, -7, +15, +7, +15. Throwing in a 28 point victory against Mcneese. That puts us at +14.04.. Still in the same group. It'll take a little luck (as always), but we're definitely in position.
Posted on 10/14/15 at 10:53 am to tgerb8
quote:
I can realistically see this team beating A&M, Arkansas, and WKU by more than 15. Florida, Bama, and Ole Miss less than 15
I am more confident in beating Florida by >15 than I am A&M.
Posted on 10/14/15 at 11:21 am to ccomeaux
quote:
.8 points over the breakline
I set the "breakline" at 14. Since that point divides the seasons that make noise from the ones that don't.
I started at 15 just for ease of breaking groups into intervals of 5.
quote:
and we haven't played the meat of our schedule. I would hold off on the party plans just yet.
While it might seem this way.... Historically it doesn't NECESSARILY hold true.
Taking the First OOC "Power 5" opponent and the first 3
SEC opponents. The point advantage was still above 14 for the same top 6, and below 14 for the same bottom 8.
2014 -8 (8-5)
2004 5.5 (9-3)
2008 7.5 (8-5)
2009 8.25 (9-4)
2012 8.5 (10-3)
2010 12.5 (11-2)
2002 13.25 (8-5)
2013 13.5 (10-3)
2006 14.25 (11-2)
2015 14.25 (5-0)
2011 14.5 (13-1)
2005 14.75 (11-2)
2003 19 (13-1)
2007 25.5
Posted on 10/14/15 at 11:23 am to Brageous
quote:
amazing how tough the schedule was in 2011 and we averaged a 24.4 margin of victory
That was an unforgettable calendar year. I just wish I could forget what happened the next January.
Posted on 10/14/15 at 11:24 am to TigerFanatic99
Yep biggest turd CLM ever layed
Posted on 10/14/15 at 1:31 pm to tgerb8
quote:
Throwing in a 28 point victory against Mcneese.
Pretty conservative imo...
Posted on 10/14/15 at 2:09 pm to tgerb8
quote:
2013 +13.8 10-3
quote:
2014 +10.1 8-5
quote:
Our current point advantage is +15.8
Way better than last year and better than 2013. Impressive.
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