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End of half scoring drives, 2009-current (DEFENSE)
Posted on 11/8/12 at 10:04 am
Posted on 11/8/12 at 10:04 am
Did some research into what seems to be a tendency for LSU's defense to give up long scoring drives at the ends of halves. We've seen it a few times this year -- SC, A&M and Bama most notably. Here is a breakdown of drives that occurred, under Chavis, in the last 3:00 of halves. The score in () is the score after the drive and the time left on the clock.
Note -- this analysis ignores games where the other team had a chance to win but did not (Moo State in 2009, UNC in 2010,
2009: 5-0 in these games, had to come back in final minute to win 2
LSU @ Washington
End of First Half -- 8 plays, 72 yds, 1:07 TOP, FG (LSU 17-13, 0:00)
End of game -- 10 plays, 81 yds, TD, 1:48 TOP (LSU 31-23, 0:00)
LSU @ UGA
End of game -- 6 plays, 79 yds, 1:38 TOP, TD (UGA 13-12, 1:09)
LSU vs Auburn
End of game -- 8 plays, 59 yds, 2:16 TOP, TD (LSU 31-10, 0:03)
LSU vs La Tech
End of game -- 13 plays, 37 yds ( ), 2:53 TOP, FG (LSU 24-16, 0:25)
LSU vs Arkansas
End of 1st half -- 9 plays, 38 yds, 1:03 TOP, FG (LSU 17-6, 0:48)
End of game -- 12 plays, 75 yds, 2:38 TOP, TD (Arkansas 30-27, 1:18)
2010: 0-1 in these games
LSU vs Arkansas
End of 1st half -- 1 play, 80 yds, 0:06 TOP, TD (Arkansas 21-14, 0:00)
2011: 2-1 in these games
LSU vs Oregon
End of game -- 11 plays, 70 yds, 2:33 TOP, TD (LSU 40-27, 0:13)
LSU @ Ole Miss
End of 1st half -- 8 plays, 56 yds, 1:53 TOP, FG (LSU 35-3, 1:03)
LSU vs Alabama, pt 2
End of 1st half -- 9 plays, 52 yds, 1:59 TOP, FG (Alabama 9-0, 0:00)
2012: 3-1 in these games
LSU vs N Texas
End of 1st half -- 3 plays, 80 yds, 0:25 TOP, TD (LSU 24-7, 1:55)
LSU vs South Carolina (special case)
End of game -- 11 plays, 77 yds, 3:13 TOP, TD (LSU 23-21, 1:41)
LSU @ A&M
End of game -- 9 plays, 80 yds, 1:55 TOP, TD (LSU 24-19, 1:17)
LSU vs Bama
End of 1st half -- 6 plays, 63 yds, 0:57 TOP, TD (Bama 14-3, 0:11)
End of game -- 5 plays, 72 yds, 0:43 TOP, TD (Bama 21-17, 0:51)
That's 13 games in 3.5 yrs in which LSU has allowed either late-game garbage time or late-game comeback drives (and first half drives) to score pts. In 3 games, LSU was forced to attempt their own comeback after giving up the lead, winning 2 times. In 2 games in 2012, LSU was forced to tighten back up after going into the final minutes up 2 scores.
Thoughts?
Note -- this analysis ignores games where the other team had a chance to win but did not (Moo State in 2009, UNC in 2010,
2009: 5-0 in these games, had to come back in final minute to win 2
LSU @ Washington
End of First Half -- 8 plays, 72 yds, 1:07 TOP, FG (LSU 17-13, 0:00)
End of game -- 10 plays, 81 yds, TD, 1:48 TOP (LSU 31-23, 0:00)
LSU @ UGA
End of game -- 6 plays, 79 yds, 1:38 TOP, TD (UGA 13-12, 1:09)
LSU vs Auburn
End of game -- 8 plays, 59 yds, 2:16 TOP, TD (LSU 31-10, 0:03)
LSU vs La Tech
End of game -- 13 plays, 37 yds ( ), 2:53 TOP, FG (LSU 24-16, 0:25)
LSU vs Arkansas
End of 1st half -- 9 plays, 38 yds, 1:03 TOP, FG (LSU 17-6, 0:48)
End of game -- 12 plays, 75 yds, 2:38 TOP, TD (Arkansas 30-27, 1:18)
2010: 0-1 in these games
LSU vs Arkansas
End of 1st half -- 1 play, 80 yds, 0:06 TOP, TD (Arkansas 21-14, 0:00)
2011: 2-1 in these games
LSU vs Oregon
End of game -- 11 plays, 70 yds, 2:33 TOP, TD (LSU 40-27, 0:13)
LSU @ Ole Miss
End of 1st half -- 8 plays, 56 yds, 1:53 TOP, FG (LSU 35-3, 1:03)
LSU vs Alabama, pt 2
End of 1st half -- 9 plays, 52 yds, 1:59 TOP, FG (Alabama 9-0, 0:00)
2012: 3-1 in these games
LSU vs N Texas
End of 1st half -- 3 plays, 80 yds, 0:25 TOP, TD (LSU 24-7, 1:55)
LSU vs South Carolina (special case)
End of game -- 11 plays, 77 yds, 3:13 TOP, TD (LSU 23-21, 1:41)
LSU @ A&M
End of game -- 9 plays, 80 yds, 1:55 TOP, TD (LSU 24-19, 1:17)
LSU vs Bama
End of 1st half -- 6 plays, 63 yds, 0:57 TOP, TD (Bama 14-3, 0:11)
End of game -- 5 plays, 72 yds, 0:43 TOP, TD (Bama 21-17, 0:51)
That's 13 games in 3.5 yrs in which LSU has allowed either late-game garbage time or late-game comeback drives (and first half drives) to score pts. In 3 games, LSU was forced to attempt their own comeback after giving up the lead, winning 2 times. In 2 games in 2012, LSU was forced to tighten back up after going into the final minutes up 2 scores.
Thoughts?
This post was edited on 11/8/12 at 10:26 am
Posted on 11/8/12 at 10:12 am to DrEdgeLSU
80% of the time, Les' strategies work 100% of the time.
As you said, many of those end game drives were in garbage time, ahead by 2 scores or more, just trying to get the game over. So the relevance is irrelevant.
As you said, many of those end game drives were in garbage time, ahead by 2 scores or more, just trying to get the game over. So the relevance is irrelevant.
Posted on 11/8/12 at 10:17 am to DrEdgeLSU
quote:
DrEdgeLSU
I'm surious as to why you labeled the USCe game this year a "special case"?
Does that mean because it was late and we had a lead and the TD was meaningless?
If that's the case then both the Oregon game last year and the A&M game this year should be labeled as such?
Posted on 11/8/12 at 10:19 am to PurpleAndGold86
quote:
Does that mean because it was late and we had a lead and the TD was meaningless?
Actually quite the opposite. The TD brought the game back within a one-score game with time left on the clock. It is a special case because the drive took a little longer than the parameters set above but the result was the same.
Vs Oregon, they scored on the last play of the game and brought the score to 40-27...hardly equivalent.
Posted on 11/8/12 at 10:19 am to DrEdgeLSU
quote:
Thoughts?
Do you have similar stats for the number of times we have scored in the last 3 mins of the 1st half and end of game?
I have no idea, but I bet our terrible offense has performed similarly. You would be amazed the # of times teams (NFL specifically) score at the end of each half.
I lost a Les Miles buyout thinking those +250 odds that teams wouldn't score in the final 2 mins of the first half were too good to be true.
Posted on 11/8/12 at 10:21 am to DrEdgeLSU
quote:
Actually quite the opposite. The TD brought the game back within a one-score game with time left on the clock. It is a special case because the drive took a little longer than the parameters set above but the result was the same.
Ok then the A&M game should be labeled as such. When they score it made it a 5 point game and then A&M got the ball back. Same case as in the USCe game which was a 9 point lead reduced to 2 point lead after the TD.
Posted on 11/8/12 at 10:23 am to Waffle House
I can look into this, Waffle House.
It was really more looking at how many times it has happened.
It was really more looking at how many times it has happened.
Posted on 11/8/12 at 10:25 am to PurpleAndGold86
quote:
Same case as in the USCe game which was a 9 point lead reduced to 2 point lead after the TD.
Special case refers to TOP and when the drive occurred. A&M started their drive within last 3 minutes; SC was just outside of that originally set time frame.
Posted on 11/8/12 at 10:26 am to Waffle House
quote:
I have no idea, but I bet our terrible offense has performed similarly. You would be amazed the # of times teams (NFL specifically) score at the end of each half.
Are you serious? Can you not think of some of these off of the top of your head?
Auburn 2007 - D Byrd? GW TD
Florida 2007 - Jacob Hester? GW TD
Florida 2010 - Tolliver? GW TD
Oregon 2011 - Randle? Gave us a 16-13 lead heading into halftime then all hell broke loose in the 2nd half.
Those are 4 that I can think of right off the top of my head without even looking anything up.
ETA: Also threw a 1 yard TD to Chase Clement last year at WVU with 27 seconds left in the first half which turned out to be a big TD.
This post was edited on 11/8/12 at 10:30 am
Posted on 11/8/12 at 10:27 am to LSUGrad9295
quote:
As you said, many of those end game drives were in garbage time, ahead by 2 scores or more, just trying to get the game over. So the relevance is irrelevant.
I disagree. In the A&M and SC games earlier this year, they both drove right down the field. We were put in the position of having to recover the on-side kick in both games, or they apparently would have driven right down the field again with us in this "prevent-type" shite at the end of games.
Posted on 11/8/12 at 10:31 am to TigerTicker
Why change a DAMN THING on defense for the last minute?? If you have contained Alabama for an entire half with a certain defensive plan -- and they haven't been able to move at all -- you don't fix what's not broken! What the hell IS that shite?
Posted on 11/8/12 at 10:31 am to TigerTicker
quote:
or they apparently would have driven right down the field again with us in this "prevent-type" shite at the end of games.
In both games, the opponent got the football back and our defense had to go make plays on defense to end the game while you are saying the other team would have driven right back down the field again.
Posted on 11/8/12 at 10:32 am to TigerTicker
quote:
Why change a DAMN THING on defense for the last minute?? If you have contained Alabama for an entire half with a certain defensive plan -- and they haven't been able to move at all -- you don't fix what's not broken! What the hell IS that shite?
We didn't run prevent against Bama also. If you think this then you clearly need to go back and watch the football game again.
Posted on 11/8/12 at 10:36 am to PurpleAndGold86
quote:
We didn't run prevent against Bama also. If you think this then you clearly need to go back and watch the football game again.
Firstly, I cannot bring myself to watch it again. Secondly, if playing off of the receivers and allowing 10 and 12 yards a pop isn't trying to prevent them from getting behind you, I'm certain that I don't know what prevent means. Do tell.
Posted on 11/8/12 at 10:44 am to DrEdgeLSU
Decided to look it up. LSU scores under 3:00 of each half in games from 09 to present. I did't capture all of the same info you did because I didn't feel like it. Anyone else is free to research.
Note we had what everyone I am sure will agree as horrible offenses in this era. Question is, why don't we go with our 2 minute offense all the time!?!
2009
LSU v Wash TD 1:15 in 1st half
LSU v Wash TD 1:54 in 2nd half
LSU v Vandy FG 0:02 in 1st half
LSU v ULL FG 0:00 in 1st half
LSU v UGA TD 2:53 in 2nd half
LSU v UGA TD 0:46 in 2nd half
LSU v Auburn FG 0:09 in 1st half
LSU v Tulane TD 2:53 in 1st half
LSU v Tulane TD 1:12 in 2nd half
LSU v Ole Miss TD 1:17 in 2nd half
LSU v Arky FG 0:04 in 2nd half
2010
LSU v UNC TD 2:28 in 1st half
LSU v Miss St FG 1:18 in 1st half
LSU v Tennessee TD 0:00 in 2nd half
LSU v UF TD 1:22 in 1st half
LSU v UF FG 0:00 in 1st half
LSU v UF TD 0:04 in 2nd half
LSU v McNeese TD 1:12 in 2nd half
LSU v Auburn TD 0:15 in 1st half
LSU v Ole Miss TD 0:44 in 2nd half
LSU v Arkansas TD 2:20 in 1st half
LSU v Arkansas FG 1:58 in 2nd half
LSU v A&M TD 1:27 in 1st half
2011
LSU v Oregon TD 0:44 in 1st half
LSU v Oregon TD 2:52 in 2nd half
LSU v Northwestern TD 0:20 in 1st half
LSU v Miss St FG 1:18 FG in 1st half
LSU v Miss St FG 2:53 FG in 2nd half
LSU v WVU TD 0:27 TD in 1st half
LSU v UF TD 1:27 in 2nd half
LSU v Tenn FG 0:15 in 1st half
LSU v Tenn TD 1:35 in 2nd half
LSU v Auburn TD 0:40 in 1st half
LSU v Bama FG 0:00 in 1st half
LSU v Arkansas TD 0:59 in 1st half
2012
LSU v UNT TD 2:12 in 2nd half
LSU v Idaho TD 0:37 in 1st half
LSU v Towson TD 2:52 in 1st half
LSU v Towson TD 1:19 in 1st half
LSU v UF FG 0:24 in 1st half
LSU v A&M TD 1:49 in 1st half
LSU v A&M TD 0:11 in 1st half
Note we had what everyone I am sure will agree as horrible offenses in this era. Question is, why don't we go with our 2 minute offense all the time!?!
2009
LSU v Wash TD 1:15 in 1st half
LSU v Wash TD 1:54 in 2nd half
LSU v Vandy FG 0:02 in 1st half
LSU v ULL FG 0:00 in 1st half
LSU v UGA TD 2:53 in 2nd half
LSU v UGA TD 0:46 in 2nd half
LSU v Auburn FG 0:09 in 1st half
LSU v Tulane TD 2:53 in 1st half
LSU v Tulane TD 1:12 in 2nd half
LSU v Ole Miss TD 1:17 in 2nd half
LSU v Arky FG 0:04 in 2nd half
2010
LSU v UNC TD 2:28 in 1st half
LSU v Miss St FG 1:18 in 1st half
LSU v Tennessee TD 0:00 in 2nd half
LSU v UF TD 1:22 in 1st half
LSU v UF FG 0:00 in 1st half
LSU v UF TD 0:04 in 2nd half
LSU v McNeese TD 1:12 in 2nd half
LSU v Auburn TD 0:15 in 1st half
LSU v Ole Miss TD 0:44 in 2nd half
LSU v Arkansas TD 2:20 in 1st half
LSU v Arkansas FG 1:58 in 2nd half
LSU v A&M TD 1:27 in 1st half
2011
LSU v Oregon TD 0:44 in 1st half
LSU v Oregon TD 2:52 in 2nd half
LSU v Northwestern TD 0:20 in 1st half
LSU v Miss St FG 1:18 FG in 1st half
LSU v Miss St FG 2:53 FG in 2nd half
LSU v WVU TD 0:27 TD in 1st half
LSU v UF TD 1:27 in 2nd half
LSU v Tenn FG 0:15 in 1st half
LSU v Tenn TD 1:35 in 2nd half
LSU v Auburn TD 0:40 in 1st half
LSU v Bama FG 0:00 in 1st half
LSU v Arkansas TD 0:59 in 1st half
2012
LSU v UNT TD 2:12 in 2nd half
LSU v Idaho TD 0:37 in 1st half
LSU v Towson TD 2:52 in 1st half
LSU v Towson TD 1:19 in 1st half
LSU v UF FG 0:24 in 1st half
LSU v A&M TD 1:49 in 1st half
LSU v A&M TD 0:11 in 1st half
Posted on 11/8/12 at 10:45 am to TigerTicker
Prevent typically has seven DBs. Not sure if we had seven DBs on the field on that drive
Posted on 11/8/12 at 10:55 am to Waffle House
Waffle -- started another thread on the offense. I pulled out drives where we scored after a long drive. For example, vs Tenn in 2010, that drive was over 6 minutes long. It wasn't a 2-min offense that got us down there.
Mostly I wanted to analyze our 2ish-min defense and offense. Nothing more than that.
Mostly I wanted to analyze our 2ish-min defense and offense. Nothing more than that.
Posted on 11/8/12 at 10:56 am to Waffle House
Intersting thread - thanks to those doing the heavy lifting, i.e., the research.
IMO, these type of scores need to be filtered out where our D gave us the ball inside the 10.
Also, (don't know the specifics) but PSU drove the field and scored late (FG) in the '09 Cap1 Bowl which proved to be the winner. IMO, this should be added to the OP's list.
quote:
LSU v UF FG 0:24 in 1st half
IMO, these type of scores need to be filtered out where our D gave us the ball inside the 10.
Also, (don't know the specifics) but PSU drove the field and scored late (FG) in the '09 Cap1 Bowl which proved to be the winner. IMO, this should be added to the OP's list.
Posted on 11/8/12 at 10:58 am to DrEdgeLSU
Yeah, I missed that you were referring to drives that started under 3:00, and I just listed scores under 3 minutes.
I get that everyone is upset with what happened versus Bama, but it isn't that uncommon overall.
I happens to all teams, we just tend to remember the ones we lost because they hurt so much.
Said in the other thread but thanks again for pulling this together. Interesting stuff.
I get that everyone is upset with what happened versus Bama, but it isn't that uncommon overall.
I happens to all teams, we just tend to remember the ones we lost because they hurt so much.
Said in the other thread but thanks again for pulling this together. Interesting stuff.
Posted on 11/8/12 at 11:00 am to TigerTicker
quote:
Secondly, if playing off of the receivers and allowing 10 and 12 yards a pop isn't trying to prevent them from getting behind you, I'm certain that I don't know what prevent means. Do tell.
Must not, because we definitely blitzed multiple times during the drive. Most notably on the play where Mills blitzed right past Yeldon on the final play. You don't blitz 5 or 6 in prevent defense.
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