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Completion percentage is king.
Posted on 1/7/15 at 8:20 pm
Posted on 1/7/15 at 8:20 pm
I think Miles just looks at turnovers and will play the "game manager" in place of what may appear to be a more reckless, although more skilled player. Here's why that is a bad idea (with our defense).
Let's compare Jennings (who has a terrible completion percentage) to Golson (who has a crapton of turnovers)
Our offense had 17 total turnovers, the defense only allowed 24 points on those turnovers, which averages to -1.4 pt/turnover
Jennings = 11 TDs (+66 Points), 7 Ints (7 * -1.4 = -10 points) - personally accounts for 56 total points.
Take Golson (whose td to turnover ratio is pretty comparable to Jennings, he just has a lot more of each) = 37 TDs (+222 points), 22 turnovers (22 * -1.4 = -31) - personally accounts for 191 total points.
Let's say that more turnovers wears down a defense and they allow more points.
Golson had 3.1 times as many turnovers. So we'll say a turnover costs the defense 3 times as many points or 4.3 points instead of 1.4. So instead of 222-31 you have 222-94 which equals 128 total points.
Jennings (56) Golson (128) = 72 points over a season better. Or.....
5.5 more per game.
and a record of 11-2.
So.. Even if a QB "manages" a game, if he can't sustain drives, and thus score, there is no way to hide that. YOU HAVE TO SWITCH!
Just a foot note - if you don't think we had someone capable of putting up Golson like numbers.....
Brandon Harris accounted for 51 (to Jennings' 56) points. in 44 less quarters of playing time. I think he could've scored a couple more touchdowns in 11 games - which would've made him the better choice right away.
Let's compare Jennings (who has a terrible completion percentage) to Golson (who has a crapton of turnovers)
Our offense had 17 total turnovers, the defense only allowed 24 points on those turnovers, which averages to -1.4 pt/turnover
Jennings = 11 TDs (+66 Points), 7 Ints (7 * -1.4 = -10 points) - personally accounts for 56 total points.
Take Golson (whose td to turnover ratio is pretty comparable to Jennings, he just has a lot more of each) = 37 TDs (+222 points), 22 turnovers (22 * -1.4 = -31) - personally accounts for 191 total points.
Let's say that more turnovers wears down a defense and they allow more points.
Golson had 3.1 times as many turnovers. So we'll say a turnover costs the defense 3 times as many points or 4.3 points instead of 1.4. So instead of 222-31 you have 222-94 which equals 128 total points.
Jennings (56) Golson (128) = 72 points over a season better. Or.....
5.5 more per game.
and a record of 11-2.
So.. Even if a QB "manages" a game, if he can't sustain drives, and thus score, there is no way to hide that. YOU HAVE TO SWITCH!
Just a foot note - if you don't think we had someone capable of putting up Golson like numbers.....
Brandon Harris accounted for 51 (to Jennings' 56) points. in 44 less quarters of playing time. I think he could've scored a couple more touchdowns in 11 games - which would've made him the better choice right away.
Posted on 1/7/15 at 8:27 pm to tgerb8
Agree. I'll take more turnovers if it energizes the offense. Turnovers can be fixed. Competency cannot. If you can't throw a 5 yard pass by the time you're a junior in college, you're not going to start now.
As far as that BH stay vs Jennings.. That's just.. Gross.
As far as that BH stay vs Jennings.. That's just.. Gross.
Posted on 1/7/15 at 8:28 pm to tgerb8
Too much math..
Jennings: 15 games played at LSU
Harris: <15 games played at LSU
Golson: 0 games played at LSU
..the only math Les knows.
Jennings: 15 games played at LSU
Harris: <15 games played at LSU
Golson: 0 games played at LSU
..the only math Les knows.
Posted on 1/7/15 at 8:32 pm to tgerb8
Harris accounted for 6 touchdowns in a game where Jennings turned it over three times in a row
Bad opponent, but still... Harris has one bad game, benched for the year. Jennings plays terribly all year. Starter for life, and even has the balls to gloat about not having any competition back there
Bad opponent, but still... Harris has one bad game, benched for the year. Jennings plays terribly all year. Starter for life, and even has the balls to gloat about not having any competition back there
Posted on 1/7/15 at 8:39 pm to JPenn91
quote:
Bad opponent, but still... Harris has one bad game, benched for the year. Jennings plays terribly all year. Starter for life, and even has the balls to gloat about not having any competition back there
This is the part that troubled me the most. The reluctance to ever put BH back in just flashed 1/9 every game for me. Just stupidity. Especially since BH was chastised for publicly speaking out about the situation and AJ gloats like he's Peyton Manning.
Whatever. Next year will be different. AJ will be seeking employment elsewhere just like Bolden did.
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