Can LSU get to #4 without winning the West?

Crazy. Impossible. Don't waste your time with it. These are all things you might say about a scenario in which LSU makes the final 4 without winning the West.

But I'm here to tell you that although unlikely, there is a slight possibility of things breaking just right for LSU to get to #4 between now and Dec 7. The evidence:

1) In the past decade, the following non-division winners have finished in the AP top 4 after conference championship weekend:

2013 #3 Alabama (11-1)
2012 #4 Florida (11-1)
2011 #2 Alabama (11-1)
2008 #3 Texas (11-1)
2007 #4 Georgia (10-2)
2006 #3 Michigan (11-1)*
2006 #4 LSU (10-2)
2005 #4 Ohio St. (9-2)*
2004 #4 Cal (10-1)*
*=conference did not have divisions at time but finished 2nd in conference

Your first objection is probably that most of the above have 1 loss rather than 2. That is a valid concern, but it's pretty striking that 3 times in the past decade a team with 2 losses who did not win its own division were in the top 4 after championship weekend.

2) LSU is currently only 11 spots away from the #4 position in the Coaches' Poll (we won't know the CFP poll until Tues). Many of those 11 teams in our way have tough back-loaded schedules plus conf championship games that could help us.

3) So what has to happen for this to happen, besides LSU winning out? We need to be the second SEC team that people have speculated could get in. The East is a mess, so we just have to finish 2nd in the West, which could happen many different ways - I won't go into all the scenarios here but it is very possible.

Sounds good so far but what about the other conferences? In this scenario only 2 non-SEC teams can make the final 4. I think this will most likely be FSU and Oregon. So who do the others lose to?

Michigan St. to Ohio St. or Big 10 West champ
TCU to Kansas St. or Texas
Notre Dame to Arizona St. or Louisville
Kansas St. to TCU or WVU or Baylor
Baylor to Okla, OkSt. or Kansas St.
Ohio St. to Michigan St. or Big 10 West champ
Arizona St. to Notre Dame or Arizona or Pac 12 North champ
Nebraska to Wisconsin or Big 10 East champ

There is still a lot of football to be played, and jumping 11 spots with the above games left is not impossible