Can LSU Defeat Alabama a Second Time?

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Published December 05, 2011 | Sports Network

Philadelphia, PA – The first time LSU and Alabama met this season the Crimson Tide was favored by five points at home but it was the Tigers who came through with the 9-6 overtime victory. Most people remember Alabama's missed field goals during regulation and use that as the excuse for the loss. However, the two Alabama kickers were not the reason the team lost since two of the three regulation misses came from 49 and 50 yards out.

I have a completely different take on the field goal attempts. To me, the distances showed how hard it was for Alabama to sustain its drives against LSU's defense. In fact, the Tide failed to reach the red zone in four of the five trips into Tiger territory. And the one time Alabama did cross the 20- yard line, the Tigers held the Tide to just two yards on three plays.

Alabama's defense was up to the task as well holding LSU to just 239 total yards. Nevertheless, the unit failed miserably when it needed to contain the Tigers the most - in overtime. Michael Ford gained 15 yards on LSU's first play from scrimmage and the game was pretty much over right there.

This time around the venue has changed as the two clubs will meet in LSU's home state of Louisiana. The Tigers are much more familiar with the Superdome having defeated Ohio State to win the BCS title game on Jan. 7, 2008. Furthermore, they knocked off Notre Dame, Oklahoma, and Illinois in their last three visits to the Sugar Bowl covering all three times. On the other hand, Alabama lost as nine-point favorites to Utah in the 2008 Sugar Bowl.

The one advantage the Crimson Tide has is the fact LSU had to play an extra game this past Saturday and I'm sure Nick Saban and his assistant coaches and coordinators watched how Georgia's defense dominated the first 30 minutes as it held the Tigers to zero first downs. Between that and how the Tide played them in the first meeting, look for Alabama to keep LSU below 20 points for the entire game. On the flip side, the Tigers should also contain the Tide keeping Alabama's offense below 17 total points.

The first contest saw a combined 12 regulation points. This one will be a little more up-tempo but the final score will stay under the posted total for the second straight time. As for which team will win, I give LSU the slight edge based on two key factors: 1) the expected home field advantage, and 2) special teams play. Look for Les Miles to walk off with his second National Championship and his first with his own recruits.