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2009 Scout five-stars; 3 of 50 will be first-round picks
Posted on 12/30/13 at 4:49 pm
Posted on 12/30/13 at 4:49 pm
This is pretty interesting. Obviously I'd much rather get five stars than not but here are Scout's five stars from 2009, not including JUCO transfers.
50 five-star players in 2009 (high school only)
Currently in NFL - 19 (four in this class project to make rosters)
NFL draftees prior to this year (15)
1st round - 3
2nd round - 3
3rd round - 1
4th round - 6
5th round -
6th round - 1
7th round - 1
Undrafted rookie FAs - 6
2014 Projects to NFL as top 4-round pick - 4
2014 Projects as late round or RFA - 5
Matt Barkley - solid college career; 4th-round pick
Bryce Brown - 7th round pick
Reuben Randle - 2nd round pick
Morrell Presley - UCLA (arrested; playing at California University of PA; caught 6 passes as a junior in 2012)
Xavier Nixon - undrafted free agent
Chris Watt - grad student at Notre Dame; projects as a 4th-round pick
Jacobbi McDaniel - Has registered 1.5 sacks in 3 full seasons prior to 2013
Donte Paige-Moss - plays in Arena League
Vontaze Burfict - undrafted free agent playing for Bengals
Manti Te'o - 2nd round pick
Jelani Jenkins - 4th round pick on Dolphins roster
Craig Loston - projects as mid-round pick
Gabe Lynn - projects as NFL rookie free agent
Russell Shepard - undrafted; WR for Tamba Bay Bucs
Trent Richardson - first-round pick
Marlon Brown - undrafted WR for Ravens
Logan Thomas - currently Va Tech's starting QB
Eric Shrive - Penn State guard; not likely to be drafted
Gary Brown - dismissed from UF after being arrested
Alex Okafor - 4th round pick of Cardinals and on roster
Nico Johnson - 4th round pick and currently on Chiefs roster
Ronnell Lewis - 4th round pick cut in training camp
Dorian Bell - transferred from Ohio State and played this year for Duquesne;
T.J. McDonald - safety for the Rams; third round pick
Branden Smith - signed as free agent but cut in camp
Aaron Murray - great college career at Georgia; projects as mid-round pick
Michael Ford - Bears roster; undrafted
Andre DuBose - UF WR missed 2013 with ACL
Orson Charles - Bengals roster - 4th round pick
Mason Walters - solid college player at Texas; 50 career starts; likely NFL rookie free agent
Jamarkus McFarland - undrafted
Melvin Fellows - career ended by injury at Ohio St.
Shayne Skov - AA safety at Stanford; projected as 2nd-round pick
Stephon Gilmore - first-round pick
Tajh Boyd- great college career; projects as mid-to-late round pick
J.T. Turner - left Michigan for JC; currently plays at Hawaii; will not be drafted
Christine Michael - Seahawks - 2nd-round pick
Greg Timmons - transferred from Texas to Grambling
Sheldon Richardson - Jets roster; 1st-round pick
Nick Kasa - Raiders roster - 6th-round pick
Darius Winston - undrafted
Garrett Gilbert - transferred from Texas to SMU; likely free agent or late-round pick
Tavon Austin - 1st-round pick on Rams roster
Pat Patterson - transferred from Ole Miss to JC and kicked off JC team
John Simon - Ravens roster - 4th round pick
Devon Kennard - 2nd-team all-Pac 10; projects as late-round pick
Dre Kirkpatrick - Bengals roster; 1st-round pick
William Campbell - Jets roster; 6th-round pick
Chris Davenport - transferred from LSU to Tulane
Corey Adams - injuries hampered career at ASU
50 five-star players in 2009 (high school only)
Currently in NFL - 19 (four in this class project to make rosters)
NFL draftees prior to this year (15)
1st round - 3
2nd round - 3
3rd round - 1
4th round - 6
5th round -
6th round - 1
7th round - 1
Undrafted rookie FAs - 6
2014 Projects to NFL as top 4-round pick - 4
2014 Projects as late round or RFA - 5
Matt Barkley - solid college career; 4th-round pick
Bryce Brown - 7th round pick
Reuben Randle - 2nd round pick
Morrell Presley - UCLA (arrested; playing at California University of PA; caught 6 passes as a junior in 2012)
Xavier Nixon - undrafted free agent
Chris Watt - grad student at Notre Dame; projects as a 4th-round pick
Jacobbi McDaniel - Has registered 1.5 sacks in 3 full seasons prior to 2013
Donte Paige-Moss - plays in Arena League
Vontaze Burfict - undrafted free agent playing for Bengals
Manti Te'o - 2nd round pick
Jelani Jenkins - 4th round pick on Dolphins roster
Craig Loston - projects as mid-round pick
Gabe Lynn - projects as NFL rookie free agent
Russell Shepard - undrafted; WR for Tamba Bay Bucs
Trent Richardson - first-round pick
Marlon Brown - undrafted WR for Ravens
Logan Thomas - currently Va Tech's starting QB
Eric Shrive - Penn State guard; not likely to be drafted
Gary Brown - dismissed from UF after being arrested
Alex Okafor - 4th round pick of Cardinals and on roster
Nico Johnson - 4th round pick and currently on Chiefs roster
Ronnell Lewis - 4th round pick cut in training camp
Dorian Bell - transferred from Ohio State and played this year for Duquesne;
T.J. McDonald - safety for the Rams; third round pick
Branden Smith - signed as free agent but cut in camp
Aaron Murray - great college career at Georgia; projects as mid-round pick
Michael Ford - Bears roster; undrafted
Andre DuBose - UF WR missed 2013 with ACL
Orson Charles - Bengals roster - 4th round pick
Mason Walters - solid college player at Texas; 50 career starts; likely NFL rookie free agent
Jamarkus McFarland - undrafted
Melvin Fellows - career ended by injury at Ohio St.
Shayne Skov - AA safety at Stanford; projected as 2nd-round pick
Stephon Gilmore - first-round pick
Tajh Boyd- great college career; projects as mid-to-late round pick
J.T. Turner - left Michigan for JC; currently plays at Hawaii; will not be drafted
Christine Michael - Seahawks - 2nd-round pick
Greg Timmons - transferred from Texas to Grambling
Sheldon Richardson - Jets roster; 1st-round pick
Nick Kasa - Raiders roster - 6th-round pick
Darius Winston - undrafted
Garrett Gilbert - transferred from Texas to SMU; likely free agent or late-round pick
Tavon Austin - 1st-round pick on Rams roster
Pat Patterson - transferred from Ole Miss to JC and kicked off JC team
John Simon - Ravens roster - 4th round pick
Devon Kennard - 2nd-team all-Pac 10; projects as late-round pick
Dre Kirkpatrick - Bengals roster; 1st-round pick
William Campbell - Jets roster; 6th-round pick
Chris Davenport - transferred from LSU to Tulane
Corey Adams - injuries hampered career at ASU
6
Posted on 12/30/13 at 4:49 pm to trooploop
ok
Posted on 12/30/13 at 4:49 pm to trooploop
quote:
Bryce Brown - 7th round pick
But but but he's an Oregon lock!
Posted on 12/30/13 at 4:53 pm to trooploop
quote:
Vontaze Burfict - undrafted free agent playing for Bengals
The NFL totally missed the boat on this one. He was an amazing college player. Insane, but amazing.
Posted on 12/30/13 at 4:54 pm to trooploop
Besides Ruben most lsu 5 stars were duds
Posted on 12/30/13 at 4:55 pm to Baloo
That many 5 stars playing in the NFL, regardless of what round, means the rankings are not that bad.
Posted on 12/30/13 at 4:56 pm to Baloo
They didn't miss anything, everyone was worried about the
quote:part
Insane
Posted on 12/30/13 at 5:00 pm to Baloo
He was also a head case that tested out extremely poorly. Can't really fault them for "missing the boat" on the guy with the information at hand. Talent was not the question mark.
On the same token, he's playing and at a very high level right now. Does it really count if the NFL missed the boat on the guy?
On the same token, he's playing and at a very high level right now. Does it really count if the NFL missed the boat on the guy?
Posted on 12/30/13 at 5:02 pm to RATeamWannabe
Posted on 12/30/13 at 5:06 pm to Riseupfromtherubble
That picture makes him a first rounder in my heart.
Posted on 12/30/13 at 5:09 pm to ProjectP2294
Vontaez Burfcit highest rated player ever at ASU. I saw him make a play in a game where he jumped over the line of scrimmage and made a tackle in the backfield absolutely insane. He is an amazing LB and went from
220 to 265 beast!
220 to 265 beast!
Posted on 12/30/13 at 5:14 pm to mcgwyergolf
Burfcit was AWESOME to watch in college.
Posted on 12/30/13 at 5:14 pm to mcgwyergolf
quote:
Marlon Brown - undrafted WR for Ravens
Could've been a pretty good player at UGA but struggled with injuries. Had a solid rookie season with a team- high 7 touchdowns.
Posted on 12/30/13 at 5:21 pm to trooploop
Good info. One of many reasons not to get too stupid about what these kids decide to do.
This post was edited on 12/30/13 at 5:22 pm
Posted on 12/30/13 at 5:26 pm to SteveLSU35
Is still awesome and Top 5 Lbs in the NIL right now.
Posted on 12/30/13 at 5:55 pm to trooploop
quote:
This is pretty interesting. Obviously I'd much rather get five stars than not but here are Scout's five stars from 2009
High school ratings don't guarantee success, but if you want to get a better idea of how well the ratings project towards NFL success, you'd have to analyze a bit more... perhaps something like:
1) Year
2) number of 5* players (will usually be around 30 for 247 and Rivals, perhaps more for Scout.)
3) number of 5* players drafted in 1st round
4) # of 5* drafted in rounds 2&3 or 2-4.
5) # of 5* drafted later / on NFL roster.
6) # of 4* (for same year)
7) # of 4* drafted in 1st round
8) # of 4* drafted in 2nd thru 3rd or 4th
9) # of 4* drafted late / on a roster.
7-10) same for 3*
11-14) perhaps lump 2* thru unrated into one category.
Just based on the little bit you're showing, almost half of the 2009 Scout 5* players are in the NFL or are expected to be this year (19 current + 4 projected is 23/50). Those are pretty solid odds.
While there are usually 30-ish (maybe Scout goes up to 50) 5*, there are usually significantly more 4* players... I think usually at least a couple hundred. I just skimmed down the 247 list and they count the players as 4* down to at least 300 spots. I don't know how it pans out... I'm going to make up some numbers (feel free to prove me wrong)... maybe 9 of these 4* players get drafted in the first round, maybe 80 get drafted overall. By the numbers, this looks like 4* are more likely to get drafted highly/drafted, but 80 players out of 250 to 300 is only approx 25%-30% of the players making it compared to almost half of the 5* players. So, 5 stars still tend to be at least a little more likely to make it.
Again, I'm making numbers up... you'd have to follow through with the research to see how it really pans out, but by the time you get to the hundreds of 3* players and thousands of 2* and below coming out of high school every year, it would be impossible for them to be as statistically likely to make one of the 200-400 NFL roster spots that open up every year compared to the higher rated players. So there is some merit to being highly rated, even if sometimes it's just that you get more attention from college teams that have better exposure and send more players to the pros.
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