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re: Where do you go with the #4 overall pick in Fantasy Football?
Posted on 7/9/14 at 12:45 pm to Iona Fan Man
Posted on 7/9/14 at 12:45 pm to Iona Fan Man
quote:I disagree with this. He's actually the TE I'll probably target if I don't pick in a spot where it would be smart to take JG in round 1. He's a pass catching TE, and when he finally supplanted Davis as their starter last year he had some really nice games. I know they added D-Jax, but with RGIII playing in Gruden's offense I can definitely see Reed having a huge year. I'm buying.
Jordan Reed TE WAS - will be used, but not focused on
This post was edited on 7/9/14 at 12:47 pm
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Posted on 7/9/14 at 12:47 pm to petar
1st round running backs have a high bust rate. Kashonly repost that post you made a few days ago that shows how many top rated RBs busted last year. IMO you should take BPA rd 1. If you pick late first rd, BPA will usually be the first or 2nd best WR, or best QB, not the 6th best RB.
edit: Picks in rds 6-9 are more important than 1st rd picks, that's where there are guys to be had who outproduce 1st and 2nd rd picks every year.
edit: Picks in rds 6-9 are more important than 1st rd picks, that's where there are guys to be had who outproduce 1st and 2nd rd picks every year.
This post was edited on 7/9/14 at 12:49 pm
Posted on 7/9/14 at 12:49 pm to Boomshockalocka
quote:+1. Once Lynch comes off the board, WR's will begin their rise in round 1. Give me Demaryius Thomas or AJ Green way before the 7th-10th best RB.
If you pick late first rd, BPA will usually be the first or 2nd best WR, or best QB, not the 6th best RB.
This post was edited on 7/9/14 at 12:50 pm
Posted on 7/9/14 at 12:50 pm to petar
quote:
So non RB in 1st round to me would be Payton, Graham, CJ,
then the other as Brees/Rodgers or which ever is your favorite in the tier 1b of the WR.
less than 50% chance of success...busts who were barely worth rostering
quote:
1 1.01 Adrian Peterson RB MIN
2 1.03 Doug Martin RB TB-was crao before being injured
3 1.05 Jamaal Charles RB KC
4 1.05 Arian Foster RB HOU
5 1.05 C.J. Spiller RB BUF-crappy all year
6 1.06 Marshawn Lynch RB SEA
7 1.06 LeSean McCoy RB PHI
8 1.08 Trent Richardson RB-crap all year
9 1.08 Ray Rice RB BAL-crap
10 1.11 Alfred Morris RB WAS-crap
11 1.12 Matt Forte RB CHI
12 2.03 Steven Jackson RB-crap ATL
Injuries were the only reason all these weren't BOLD
quote:
1 1.09 Calvin Johnson WR DET
2 2.02 Dez Bryant WR DAL
3 2.06 A.J. Green WR CIN
4 2.10 Julio Jones WR ATL
5 2.12 Brandon Marshall WR
6 3.02 Demaryius Thomas WR
7 3.05 Larry Fitzgerald WR
8 3.07 Andre Johnson WR HOU
9 3.08 Randall Cobb WR GB
10 3.11 Roddy White WR ATL
11 4.01 Victor Cruz WR NYG
12 4.02 Vincent Jackson WR TB
Only an injury to rodgers kept the top 3 from being the top 3
quote:
1 2.07 Drew Brees QB
2 3.01 Aaron Rodgers QB
3 3.08 Peyton Manning QB
70% chance success at TE(top 10 who finished in top 10)
quote:
1 2.11 Jimmy Graham TE NO
2 4.08 Rob Gronkowski TE NE
3 5.08 Vernon Davis TE SF
4 5.11 Jason Witten TE DAL
5 6.06 Tony Gonzalez TE ATL
6 7.04 Jermichael Finley TE GB
7 8.02 Jordan Cameron TE CLE
8 8.05 Antonio Gates TE SD
9 8.11 Jared Cook TE STL
10 9.05 Greg Olsen TE CAR
This post was edited on 7/9/14 at 12:52 pm
Posted on 7/9/14 at 12:50 pm to Iona Fan Man
I agree getting a good TE can be huge, but I dont buy the getting two tight ends.
I think its over paying. Flex spot should get the player that can provide the most points no matter the position with slight consideration for depth at your non-flex (of course there is a slight value in devaluing another team of getting a TE but I dont value that as highly as providing depth to rb's or wr or te if injury concern.)
Posted on 7/9/14 at 12:52 pm to VermilionTiger
Forte, will be a top 3 RB this season. D Thomas or Bryant will outproduce Calvin.
I think McCoy's value will not be effected by Sproles. Sproles will be used more of a decoy and Philly is a run first offense. Expect McCoy to be the top RB this year.
After that you have Charles or AP. No RB has ever had back to back #1 RB years in fantasy since the early 2000s. Dont see Charles being the top guy this year especially since he lost some of his O-Line. AP probably at 3 then Forte for me.
I think McCoy's value will not be effected by Sproles. Sproles will be used more of a decoy and Philly is a run first offense. Expect McCoy to be the top RB this year.
After that you have Charles or AP. No RB has ever had back to back #1 RB years in fantasy since the early 2000s. Dont see Charles being the top guy this year especially since he lost some of his O-Line. AP probably at 3 then Forte for me.
This post was edited on 7/9/14 at 12:56 pm
Posted on 7/9/14 at 12:53 pm to petar
quote:
No Qb is worth that much over another QB to be selected so high
Last year in my league Peyton had 555 fantasy points. The next was Drew at 463. No one else had over 400.
Peyton can carry a team to the playoffs. Once you're in the playoffs, anything goes.
Posted on 7/9/14 at 12:55 pm to petar
quote:
I think its over paying. Flex spot should get the player that can provide the most points no matter the position with slight consideration for depth at your non-flex (of course there is a slight value in devaluing another team of getting a TE but I dont value that as highly as providing depth to rb's or wr or te if injury concern.)
I'd feel pretty comfortable with Gronk/Graham in my flex going up against another teams WR3 or RB3.
Posted on 7/9/14 at 12:57 pm to Iona Fan Man
quote:
historically a 1st round RB is a 50%/50% chance of success, while elite WRs and QBs are 80%
Feel that. 1st rd wr/QB is certainly a safer choice, but non bust 1st round RB is worth the risk especially if that rb has a good handcuff that isn't overvalued to assuage the injury concern at rb.
I wouldn't use this statistic to imply that you should not choose a rb over a qb/wr. its slightly skewed IMO as predicting the top 2 or 3 is a lot less risky as predicting 4-10.
Granted I typically avoid risk rbs as well
Posted on 7/9/14 at 12:58 pm to Gtothemoney
Peyton carried a friend of mine to 7 cashes in 8 leagues. I believe the year before that he cashed out 8 of 10 leagues with the selection of a quarterback in the first. If passing touchdowns are worth 6 points, it's more than justifiable to take him high in the first. The same can be said of Brees and Rodgers.
Posted on 7/9/14 at 1:08 pm to Boomshockalocka
quote:
I'd feel pretty comfortable with Gronk/Graham in my flex going up against another teams WR3 or RB3.
this is what gets missed...when they draft Vernon Davis or Cameron or Witten...they are using a 5-7rd pick
you can get those exact points from a WR/RB 30+ in the 12th+ round....rod streater, cecil shorts, Golden Tate,D.woodhead
Posted on 7/9/14 at 1:09 pm to papz
I go crazy when I'm in 2 leagues. I can't even imagine playing in 8 or 10. Jesus. 
Posted on 7/9/14 at 1:13 pm to Gtothemoney
quote:
I'd feel pretty comfortable with Gronk/Graham in my flex going up against another teams WR3 or RB3.
I understand that. But the comparison is off as i think Gronk will be a 2 or 3 rd pick. Therefore yea maybe he is better than wr3 or rb3 but the value you get there is less than the value you could get with a andre johnson, ben tate, larry fitz, desean jackson type would give you over your opponents #2 wr/rb. atleast in my opinion
quote:
Last year in my league Peyton had 555 fantasy points.
Yea, Payton last year was the man. And i agree that getting a good quarterback is valuable.
Newton/luck/rg3/stafford plus Forte/McCoy/AP/Charles/CJ/Graham > Manning/brees/rodgers and Harvin/ chris johnson/ toby gerhert/t.y/ reggie bush. etc.
Safe top player is huge because you know at qb there is little risk. I think this year is much less rb heavy as years past as beyond that top 4 maybe 5 rbs, it gets a little weird.
Posted on 7/9/14 at 1:18 pm to Iona Fan Man
quote:
when they draft Vernon Davis or Cameron or Witten...they are using a 5-7rd pick
you can get those exact points from a WR/RB 30+ in the 12th+ round....rod streater, cecil shorts, Golden Tate,D.woodhead
good point.
Posted on 7/9/14 at 1:19 pm to VermilionTiger
my top 6 in order are
mccoy
charles
ap
forte
lacy
calvin
dont be set on rb no matter what. in 2 different ppr leagues last yr i drafted wr/wr/wr first 3 rounds... won both! its amazing what calvin/demaryious/marshall can do in ppr together
mccoy
charles
ap
forte
lacy
calvin
dont be set on rb no matter what. in 2 different ppr leagues last yr i drafted wr/wr/wr first 3 rounds... won both! its amazing what calvin/demaryious/marshall can do in ppr together
This post was edited on 7/9/14 at 1:24 pm
Posted on 7/9/14 at 1:30 pm to petar
quote:
you can get those exact points from a WR/RB 30+ in the 12th+ round....rod streater, cecil shorts, Golden Tate,D.woodhead
good point.
and it's far easier for you to land a surprise WR1/RB2(edelman,keenan allen,alshon,knowshon)...than an elite TE
it;s also FAR easier to stream WR2/RB2...(Harry Douglas, Bobby Rainey)...than to stream TEs
Posted on 7/9/14 at 1:37 pm to Gtothemoney
quote:
He may throw 50. No?
Well, hes gonna be 38. On average over his career, he's averaged about 32 TD passes per season.
He's had a huge outlier season before, where he threw 49. He followed the next year with 28 TDs, with the same cast of players. His team's W/L actually improved too.
Only 2 players have ever thrown 50 or more.
I think 40 TDs would be the high mark. Considering he's only eclipsed that twice, that still might be a little far fetched. Mid 30's?
Posted on 7/9/14 at 1:38 pm to oleyeller
quote:
in 2 different ppr leagues last yr i drafted wr/wr/wr first 3 rounds... won both! its amazing what calvin/demaryious/marshall can do in ppr together
as a general rule we don't mention free espn public leagues when talking about the leagues we've played in and how we've placed in them.
Posted on 7/9/14 at 1:41 pm to NOFLyZ0ne28
quote:
Can you sell me on this guy? Ranked 5th overall among RB's and I just can't see how. I would personally draft M. Lynch way before I thought about Lacy. Why do people seem to like Lacy so much heading into this year?
He's one of a handful of a RB that is guaranteed touches. Plays in an explosive offense, will get goaline carries. He's just a safe pick IMO.
Lynch has averaged 300 carries over the last 3 years. PLus they have 2 young RBs they like in Turbin and Michael. I think they slow the throttle on Lynch a little. RBs prove to wear out after that much pounding.
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