Where did the Andre Ellington hype come from?

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Why Ellington Can Be a Top-5 RB

You can’t beat elite athleticism and explosiveness. Unless you’re also versatile with soft hands and an NFL track record that already boasts a gaudy 5.5 yards per carry on 118 career totes. Ellington may be made in a small package, but this league has seen plenty of small backs prove critics wrong. If Ellington bulked up as reported and didn’t lose his trademark burst, there’s little reason to hate on him.

What makes Ellington even more interesting is that his offense needs him and it sounds like the Cardinals want to get the ball in his hands early and often. With just three career games with less than a 4.0 yards per carry average, it seems like getting the ball into his hands as much as possible is a pretty good idea.

Ellington also brings added value as a legit PPR threat and should be a yardage fiend. He might have an issue with Jonathan Dwyer stealing some touchdowns near the goal-line, but the overall production should survive that. LeSean McCoy and Jamaal Charles are both under six feet tall and less than 2010 pounds - just like Ellington. They finished first and second among running backs in fantasy football last year. Enough said.

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Just how valuable can Ellington be in 2014? One thing that’s important to note is he has essentially no risk of losing his job out of camp, as Jonathan Dwyer and Stepfan Taylor are far from the talent that Ellington is. Realistically, he should be getting all the meaningful touches out of the backfield for Arizona, with only physical factors limiting him.

That last part is what worries people about Ellington: he’s small. That is one of the main reasons Howell highlighted as to why he won’t be a 400-plus touch player in 2014. Earlier, however, I stated that this really doesn’t matter, and I’ll explain what I meant by that now.

Let’s just assume Ellington doesn’t get close to the 25 to 30 touch per game mark that Arians stated he’ll receive. Let’s say, hypothetically, that he averages 15 touches per game, a slight increase over the 13.6 he was receiving per game over the last half of the 2013 season. If he averages the same 0.71 points per touch while receiving 15 touches a game, he’ll average 10.65 points a week. Over the season, that translates to 170.4 points, or a running back finish of 15th if we’re going by last year's running back points.

I like to think of that as somewhat of a middle ground for an Ellington projection, as it assumes two important things. First, it assumes he doesn’t improve upon his efficiency in his second year. Second, it projects a very modest increase in touches, a far cry from the volume Arians is claiming he will receive. While I don’t think he’ll score much better on a per touch basis than he did as a rookie, I do believe he’ll end up closer to 18 to 20 touches per game. The jump in points that comes with him seeing 18 touches a game is drastic, as using the same 0.71 points per touch, we’re now looking at Ellington as a 204.48-point player. That would make him a top-10 running back.

This isn’t a perfect way to evaluate Ellington’s 2014 value, as there are a range of outcomes that could occur with both his touches and points per touch, but it does help show that he doesn’t need gaudy touch figures to be a great fantasy asset. While his size will likely prevent him from being a true workhorse, he can still finish as an RB1 without the massive workload.

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Andre Ellington could be the next Jamaal Charles. Both players share a versatile skill set that can be weaponized all over the field, and their teams each view them as the centerpiece of their respective offenses. While it may be another season before Ellington is able to put all the pieces together and tout elite running back fantasy numbers, the upside and opportunity for success are apparent.

Ellington totaled over 1,000 yards of offense and four touchdowns in his rookie year when he averaged less than 10 touches per game and ran behind a putrid offensive line. It is not unreasonable to suggest that his production could double in 2014—a total that would position him among the top backs in fantasy.

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Just like you could not miss last year with Lamar Miller and David Wilson.

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Just like you could not miss last year with Lamar Miller and David Wilson.

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