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Message
re: SBL 2013 Spring Training (Keepers 3/17, Slow Draft to follow)
Posted on 1/22/13 at 11:15 am to GynoSandberg
Posted on 1/22/13 at 11:15 am to GynoSandberg
Damn j
You gettin old
You gettin old
1
Posted on 1/22/13 at 11:21 am to rondo
Tell me Bout it EN
Posted on 1/22/13 at 11:32 am to GynoSandberg
Soon you'll be listening to Adele with the "mute on".
Posted on 1/22/13 at 11:38 am to cwill
I don't get it
Posted on 1/22/13 at 11:52 am to GynoSandberg
I'm Asian, 31, married, with a 4 and two year old(girl and boy). Borned and raised in New Orleans, sonographer by trade, and I like to drink/karoake/cards during my down time. Not so much a out and about guy anymore after the kids.
Fantasy wise, I'm competitive and very active. I take a lot of pride in my yahoo profile. Don't always win but I never quit trying.
Fantasy wise, I'm competitive and very active. I take a lot of pride in my yahoo profile. Don't always win but I never quit trying.
Posted on 1/22/13 at 12:04 pm to papz
You and honk will get along.
Posted on 1/22/13 at 12:06 pm to rondo
Is this a dating site?
Posted on 1/22/13 at 12:26 pm to papz
quote:
I'm Asian
karoake
Iswydt
Posted on 1/22/13 at 1:02 pm to rondo
We do.
Posted on 1/22/13 at 1:04 pm to EarlyBird
Naw I'm taken. 
Posted on 1/22/13 at 1:07 pm to papz
So who's dealing what today? I have the itch to move an E5/Cliff Lee package
Posted on 1/22/13 at 1:15 pm to GynoSandberg
Im chilling until i see what ESPN eligibility looks like on a few dudes.
Posted on 1/22/13 at 1:20 pm to Toula
Wodie (Houston)
Who's a bigger bust candidate: Chase Headley or Edwin Encarnacion?
Tristan H. Cockcroft (11:10 AM)
Headley, if only because of the outrageous home run/fly ball percentage (20.5%), unlikely repeatable because of his spacious home ballpark (even accounting for the smaller dimensions in 2013). But I've got both players coming within reasonable range of their 2013 output, so I wouldn't call either a clear "bust" pick of mine. I just see Encarnacion's dead-on-repeat prospects being a little higher.
Is it unrealistic to expect a line of .290 25 90 for Anthony Rizzo?
Tristan H. Cockcroft (11:11 AM)
Yes, the batting average is unrealistic. I think Rizzo's drafting owners are investing in the chance at 30 homers, while accepting a near-fantasy-league-average batting average in the .270 range. And I'd argue that the proper projection might have him batting in the .265 range with 26 homers or so.
Who's a bigger bust candidate: Chase Headley or Edwin Encarnacion?
Tristan H. Cockcroft (11:10 AM)
Headley, if only because of the outrageous home run/fly ball percentage (20.5%), unlikely repeatable because of his spacious home ballpark (even accounting for the smaller dimensions in 2013). But I've got both players coming within reasonable range of their 2013 output, so I wouldn't call either a clear "bust" pick of mine. I just see Encarnacion's dead-on-repeat prospects being a little higher.
Is it unrealistic to expect a line of .290 25 90 for Anthony Rizzo?
Tristan H. Cockcroft (11:11 AM)
Yes, the batting average is unrealistic. I think Rizzo's drafting owners are investing in the chance at 30 homers, while accepting a near-fantasy-league-average batting average in the .270 range. And I'd argue that the proper projection might have him batting in the .265 range with 26 homers or so.
This post was edited on 1/22/13 at 1:21 pm
Posted on 1/22/13 at 1:21 pm to GynoSandberg
Can Kris Medlen repeat his second half dominance?
Tristan H. Cockcroft (11:21 AM)
He has effectively zero chance of that, but I point you to Daniel Hudson's late-season dominance in what, 2010, as a fair comparison point. Hudson regressed as everyone should've expected, but to a range that still kept him high in the starting pitching rankings. It's the kind of thing where the player is a top-10 starter on a per-start basis in the past year, but in the upcoming year he's a guy who makes more starts, but the sum is more of a top-25 guy. That's Medlen to me. More innings, higher ratios. But tremendous skills.
Tristan H. Cockcroft (11:21 AM)
He has effectively zero chance of that, but I point you to Daniel Hudson's late-season dominance in what, 2010, as a fair comparison point. Hudson regressed as everyone should've expected, but to a range that still kept him high in the starting pitching rankings. It's the kind of thing where the player is a top-10 starter on a per-start basis in the past year, but in the upcoming year he's a guy who makes more starts, but the sum is more of a top-25 guy. That's Medlen to me. More innings, higher ratios. But tremendous skills.
Posted on 1/22/13 at 1:22 pm to GynoSandberg
What are your expectations for V-Mart this season? Where do you see him going in drafts?
Tristan H. Cockcroft (11:27 AM)
Let's say I'll be monitoring him very carefully once camps open -- and as a catcher and a player fresh off injury he'll surely be reporting early -- but I'm cautiously optimistic for now. I'm shaving maybe 10-15 percent of his value off the top based on the missed year, but as a middle-of-the-order hitter for a solid Tigers lineup, I think he might instantly become a top-five catcher again. I think he belongs in the discussion as the 100th overall pick of the draft approaches. I ranked him 110th, but I'll be thinking about him a little before that.
Thanks for the chat time Tristan, always appreciate your insights. Do you buy into Fielder's odd-year success? Looking to land a big bat at first but wondering if I can target some less pricey guys like Butler, Ike, Hosmer...
Tristan H. Cockcroft (11:33 AM)
No. Odd-even year patterns are ridiculous analysis, even though I know there's the temptation to believe in them because of a few isolated examples in the history books. Fielder's chances of repeating are outstanding considering the Tigers have added Victor Martinez and Torii Hunter to further bolster the lineup behind him, so I cannot see how that pattern holds up. First-round pick, pretty easy call.I do think the other three are fine choices late if you prefer to wait, but "reaching" for Fielder at the end of the first doesn't bother me one bit.
Tristan H. Cockcroft (11:27 AM)
Let's say I'll be monitoring him very carefully once camps open -- and as a catcher and a player fresh off injury he'll surely be reporting early -- but I'm cautiously optimistic for now. I'm shaving maybe 10-15 percent of his value off the top based on the missed year, but as a middle-of-the-order hitter for a solid Tigers lineup, I think he might instantly become a top-five catcher again. I think he belongs in the discussion as the 100th overall pick of the draft approaches. I ranked him 110th, but I'll be thinking about him a little before that.
Thanks for the chat time Tristan, always appreciate your insights. Do you buy into Fielder's odd-year success? Looking to land a big bat at first but wondering if I can target some less pricey guys like Butler, Ike, Hosmer...
Tristan H. Cockcroft (11:33 AM)
No. Odd-even year patterns are ridiculous analysis, even though I know there's the temptation to believe in them because of a few isolated examples in the history books. Fielder's chances of repeating are outstanding considering the Tigers have added Victor Martinez and Torii Hunter to further bolster the lineup behind him, so I cannot see how that pattern holds up. First-round pick, pretty easy call.I do think the other three are fine choices late if you prefer to wait, but "reaching" for Fielder at the end of the first doesn't bother me one bit.
This post was edited on 1/22/13 at 1:23 pm
Posted on 1/22/13 at 1:23 pm to GynoSandberg
Can we Inaugurate you in the fantasy HOF today? What can we expect about J Kipnis? Somewhere in between the 1st half & 2nd half of his season last yr? Been offered Trumbo for him and both seem in the same boat.
Tristan H. Cockcroft (11:36 AM)
"Somewhere in between" feels like a lame answer most of the time, but for examples like Kipnis it's the truth. I cite the fact that his stats show clear extremes on both sides of the "luck" measures, and he has all of the look of a player in the midst of his early-career adjustment period. But he's such a good power/speed guy at a weak position, give me him over the mostly power-driven Trumbo.
Tristan, what happened to Tommy Hanson? Does Anaheim help him at all?
Tristan H. Cockcroft (11:38 AM)
His average fastball velocity has dropped in each of the past two years to the point it's regularly beneath 90 mph, it has become considerably more hittable as a result, and he's leaning way too much on his slider (which increases the chance of further injury in my opinion). There's a very real chance of statistical implosion; like you pick him as the third or fourth starter on your team, get a month or two of poor production and then he misses much of the rest of the year. I'm avoiding him wherever possible, just because he's trending downward badly.
Tristan H. Cockcroft (11:36 AM)
"Somewhere in between" feels like a lame answer most of the time, but for examples like Kipnis it's the truth. I cite the fact that his stats show clear extremes on both sides of the "luck" measures, and he has all of the look of a player in the midst of his early-career adjustment period. But he's such a good power/speed guy at a weak position, give me him over the mostly power-driven Trumbo.
Tristan, what happened to Tommy Hanson? Does Anaheim help him at all?
Tristan H. Cockcroft (11:38 AM)
His average fastball velocity has dropped in each of the past two years to the point it's regularly beneath 90 mph, it has become considerably more hittable as a result, and he's leaning way too much on his slider (which increases the chance of further injury in my opinion). There's a very real chance of statistical implosion; like you pick him as the third or fourth starter on your team, get a month or two of poor production and then he misses much of the rest of the year. I'm avoiding him wherever possible, just because he's trending downward badly.
This post was edited on 1/22/13 at 1:24 pm
Posted on 1/22/13 at 1:25 pm to GynoSandberg
Will Ian Desmond retain his power in the 2013 season?
Tristan H. Cockcroft (11:40 AM)
I say yes. He's hitting an increasing number of balls in the air by year, making more solid contact with them and getting increasingly aggressive, especially against fastballs and pitches on the inner third of the plate. Desmond looks like he's coming into his own, and I'm a firm believer in him for 2013. Buy!
Do any blue jays pitchers have solid upside this year? Or at least any more than they had on their previous teams.
Tristan H. Cockcroft (11:43 AM)
If he stays healthy, I love Josh Johnson in Toronto.Brandon Morrow is my Blue Jays value pick of 2013.
Tristan H. Cockcroft (11:40 AM)
I say yes. He's hitting an increasing number of balls in the air by year, making more solid contact with them and getting increasingly aggressive, especially against fastballs and pitches on the inner third of the plate. Desmond looks like he's coming into his own, and I'm a firm believer in him for 2013. Buy!
Do any blue jays pitchers have solid upside this year? Or at least any more than they had on their previous teams.
Tristan H. Cockcroft (11:43 AM)
If he stays healthy, I love Josh Johnson in Toronto.Brandon Morrow is my Blue Jays value pick of 2013.
Posted on 1/22/13 at 1:26 pm to GynoSandberg
Mike Moustakas' ADP of around 180 seems a substantially better value than Ryan Zimmerman's ADP, which currently is about 50. Is that crazy talk?
Tristan H. Cockcroft (11:45 AM)
Narrowing the ADPs to near-equal levels is crazy talk. "I'd rather have Moustakas in the 18th round than Zimmerman in the fifth" is not remotely crazy talk. Remember, I'd ranked Zimmerman about a round and a half lower than your quoted ADP, so I'm on board that he's being overrated if that his number.
With all the new additions, do you think Brett Lawrie is a bit of an under the radar player right now, especially coming off an underwhelming 2012? Is .290 20HR/80RBI/20SB realistic? Also, where should I target him in a keeper league?
Tristan H. Cockcroft (11:53 AM)
He's another player whose next-level statistics wildly fluctuate, and considering age/experience with players like this I take that as the player is in the midst of his adjustment period. Lawrie has the skills to put up the numbers you cite, and I'm ranking him as if I'm cautiously optimistic he'll get there (with some luck in the health department). But watch him closely in March!Ranked 89th for redraft, tentatively 37th for keeper.
Tristan H. Cockcroft (11:45 AM)
Narrowing the ADPs to near-equal levels is crazy talk. "I'd rather have Moustakas in the 18th round than Zimmerman in the fifth" is not remotely crazy talk. Remember, I'd ranked Zimmerman about a round and a half lower than your quoted ADP, so I'm on board that he's being overrated if that his number.
With all the new additions, do you think Brett Lawrie is a bit of an under the radar player right now, especially coming off an underwhelming 2012? Is .290 20HR/80RBI/20SB realistic? Also, where should I target him in a keeper league?
Tristan H. Cockcroft (11:53 AM)
He's another player whose next-level statistics wildly fluctuate, and considering age/experience with players like this I take that as the player is in the midst of his adjustment period. Lawrie has the skills to put up the numbers you cite, and I'm ranking him as if I'm cautiously optimistic he'll get there (with some luck in the health department). But watch him closely in March!Ranked 89th for redraft, tentatively 37th for keeper.
Posted on 1/22/13 at 1:28 pm to GynoSandberg
Where do you have Aroldis Chapman among SPs?
Tristan H. Cockcroft (12:02 PM)
Looks like 17th, and I've been on board with him being a top-20 capable starter all winter.
Tristan H. Cockcroft (12:02 PM)
Looks like 17th, and I've been on board with him being a top-20 capable starter all winter.
Posted on 1/22/13 at 1:29 pm to GynoSandberg
Just some tidbits about a few guys who people may keep
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