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re: Reaching for Gronk? TE drop off?
Posted on 7/27/15 at 8:00 pm to Gtothemoney
Posted on 7/27/15 at 8:00 pm to Gtothemoney
quote:
I don't think it's irrelevant. They should have won two titles in a row with a philosophy of running the ball and Wilson scrambling. Yes, he will def be an upgrade of what they are used to, but I don't see them changing what they do.
so he should throw to TE that suck and can't get open? how does that make sense?
1
Posted on 7/27/15 at 8:03 pm to GynoSandberg
quote:Again, to show the pass TD vs. catch TD, Peyton threw 55 TDs that season. JT caught 12. 22%.
What is he goes 65/788/12 or thereabouts? That Julius Thomas line from 2013, made him TE3. Wouldve put him in the top 20 in PPR point for WR.
Jimmy's average with the Saints (again excluding rookie season) was 28.5% on 40TD passes per season.
If Wilson matches last year TDs (20) and Jimmy matches his career average (28.5%), Jimmy will score 6 TDs next season.
I think he'll surpass that for sure, but with all this loft and expectations, let's get grounded.
Some of this optimism is like reading tRant - it's July - 15-0 bitches.
This post was edited on 7/27/15 at 8:07 pm
Posted on 7/27/15 at 8:08 pm to GynoSandberg
quote:
Would you agree Graham could catch 66 balls? 788 yards? 12 TDs?
He could. But to me, likely not.
I'll say he goes for 50 catches, 600 yds, 8 TD. Where would that rank him in comparison to other TE's last season?
Posted on 7/27/15 at 8:08 pm to drizztiger
so predict for me his line for 2015. Jimmy Graham.
Posted on 7/27/15 at 8:09 pm to Lester Earl
quote:
so he should throw to TE that suck and can't get open? how does that make sense?
Wat?
Posted on 7/27/15 at 8:10 pm to Gtothemoney
quote:
I'll say he goes for 50 catches, 600 yds, 8 TD. Where would that rank him in comparison to other TE's last season?
Not even top 10
I respect you putting a line out there, though
Posted on 7/27/15 at 8:11 pm to drizztiger
quote:
JT caught 12. 22%.
Jimmy's average with the Saints (again excluding rookie season) was 28.5% on 40TD passes per season.
If Wilson matches last year TDs (20) and Jimmy matches his career average (28.5%),
Btw, these numbers are meaningless. not only is he changing teams, but you win titles predicting what he'll do next, not what he has done in the past. Especially with a different team.
Im pretty sure they didn't trade a 1st and their starting center to throw Jimmy Graham 50 balls.
Posted on 7/27/15 at 8:12 pm to Gtothemoney
What TE's did in that offense previously is irrelevant to what Jimmy Graham could do. You said it wasn't. Are you drunk?
Posted on 7/27/15 at 8:12 pm to GynoSandberg
What's your prediction?
Posted on 7/27/15 at 8:17 pm to Gtothemoney
I'll put him at 65/750/10
Posted on 7/27/15 at 8:18 pm to Lester Earl
Excuse my Chalmette education.
My point was pretty clear. Just bc you add Jimmy Graham to that offense doesn't mean he will put up Jimmy Graham #'s. He will be an improvement to what they had, but again Seattles top TE caught 22 balls last year.
Idk if it was you who said JG will be competing with Gronk for the top fantasy TE? To me, that's crazy.
My point was pretty clear. Just bc you add Jimmy Graham to that offense doesn't mean he will put up Jimmy Graham #'s. He will be an improvement to what they had, but again Seattles top TE caught 22 balls last year.
Idk if it was you who said JG will be competing with Gronk for the top fantasy TE? To me, that's crazy.
Posted on 7/27/15 at 8:20 pm to GynoSandberg
quote:
I'll put him at 65/750/10
Where does that rank him last year?
Posted on 7/27/15 at 8:24 pm to Lester Earl
quote:Full 16 games? 65-780-9.
so predict for me his line for 2015. Jimmy Graham.
Posted on 7/27/15 at 8:25 pm to Gtothemoney
quote:
Idk if it was you who said JG will be competing with Gronk for the top fantasy TE? To me, that's crazy.
I said he could compete in TDs with Gronk.
quote:
Just bc you add Jimmy Graham to that offense doesn't mean he will put up Jimmy Graham #'s.
no one said that
Posted on 7/27/15 at 8:27 pm to Gtothemoney
That's right on the cusp of top 5 over the past few seasons. I think there is room for more, though.
You are aware of the big ordeal of Jimmy Graham lining as WR? Do you not think he will be their leading pass catcher? Not sure past TE performances matter here.
2014 leading receiver was Doug Baldwin, 66 catches 825 yards on 98 targets
2013 leading receiver Golden Tate, 64 catcher 898 yards on 99 targets
That's pretty consistent numbers for their leading pass catcher under Wilson. Assuming no uptick in pass attempts, Graham could land there as their leading receiver?
I guess the questions for you here are
1. Will he lead the teams in targets?
2. Will he be their leading receiver?
You are aware of the big ordeal of Jimmy Graham lining as WR? Do you not think he will be their leading pass catcher? Not sure past TE performances matter here.
2014 leading receiver was Doug Baldwin, 66 catches 825 yards on 98 targets
2013 leading receiver Golden Tate, 64 catcher 898 yards on 99 targets
That's pretty consistent numbers for their leading pass catcher under Wilson. Assuming no uptick in pass attempts, Graham could land there as their leading receiver?
I guess the questions for you here are
1. Will he lead the teams in targets?
2. Will he be their leading receiver?
Posted on 7/27/15 at 8:34 pm to GynoSandberg
quote:
1. Will he lead the teams in targets?
2. Will he be their leading receiver?
Yes to both.
The thing that I can't get past is that he goes from an offense in the N.O. where most times it seemed like he was option A,B, and C, to a Seattle offense where running the ball and Wilson improvising should have won them b2b Super Bowls.
I stand by my July prediction for Jimmy. Could I be wrong? frick yeah.
Posted on 7/27/15 at 8:36 pm to Gtothemoney
Yeah, they still have to pass regardless.
Graham is the most polarizing fantasy case heading into the year.
im out for now
Graham is the most polarizing fantasy case heading into the year.
im out for now
Posted on 7/27/15 at 8:41 pm to GynoSandberg
JG had a 60% catch rate in his best season with Brees whose accuracy is a career 67% passer including SD. If you want to include NO only numbers, it's closer to 68%.
Jimmy in his 16 TD year caught 60% of targets. Brees completed almost 69% on 650 attempts.
Wilson is a career 63% completion passer - nothing against him, solid for 3 years starting rookie. His numbers haven't changed at all though. 64/63/63.
Compared to +17 TD Luck... 54/61/62.
The difference? Brees/Luck = high volume passing attacks. In 3 years since Luck/Wilson have been in the league. Luck has attempted 600 more passes than Wilson.
Jimmy in his 16 TD year caught 60% of targets. Brees completed almost 69% on 650 attempts.
Wilson is a career 63% completion passer - nothing against him, solid for 3 years starting rookie. His numbers haven't changed at all though. 64/63/63.
Compared to +17 TD Luck... 54/61/62.
The difference? Brees/Luck = high volume passing attacks. In 3 years since Luck/Wilson have been in the league. Luck has attempted 600 more passes than Wilson.
Posted on 7/27/15 at 8:54 pm to drizztiger
When did we start needing the Pythagorean theorem to decipher fantasy football stats? frick. 
Posted on 7/27/15 at 8:55 pm to drizztiger
You just predicted a near identical line to what I did. GLTY
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