Mediocre day for Moncrief, Colts passing game...

I think he is here to stay.

Personally, I think he is better than Ty Hilton. That is not to say that he will end up having a better season than Hilton. Hilton is still the WR1 there.

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I think he is here to stay.

Personally, I think he is better than Ty Hilton.

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and yet I was the only bidder on him

i traded for him in another league

Week 1 can provide many misnomers. We discussed in last week’s Reception Perception column why it would be unwise to pull the plug on Allen Robison’s after a one catch 2015 debut. He followed that up with a six catch, 155 yard, two-touchdown explosion against the Dolphins on Sunday. Sometimes we have to ignore early results and stick with the process the available data demanded we take. So far, the story of the Colts wide receiver group has dictated we do just that; following 2014 Reception Perception data to a wide receiver ready for a massive season. It’s just not the one many expected

In Part 1 of the preseason planting flags mini-series, I detailed that last year’s data pointed to Andre Johnson having a big year with the Colts. He finished with good scores with the Texans last year, and it seemed a massive quarterback upgrade to Andrew Luck was exactly what he needed. It became abundantly clear from the moment the Week 1 game tape rolled that was not the case. Sadly, one of the best receivers of this generation doesn’t look anything like himself two weeks into the 2015 campaign. Reception Perception was wrong in projecting Andre Johnson for big season.

However, one thing the methodology was not wrong about was a positive assessment for the other big-bodied Colts receiver, Donte Moncrief. When I released the Success Rate Versus Coverage data for the sophomore wide receiver group, Moncrief was a surprise top performer. He scored the second highest in SRVC against zone and sixth best in SRVC against man among the sophomore receivers. His was a small sample size, his 78 routes were the lowest charted among the 2014 rookies, but his data demanded attention. The conclusion from that very piece was that “His issue won’t be performance based, but finding targets in a passing attack that added Andre Johnson and Phillip Dorsett to an already crowded group.” With Johnson making little impact and Moncrief out-snapping Dorsett 107 to 31 through two weeks, it appears those obstacles are removed.

Donte Moncrief currently stands inside the top 10 fantasy receivers for 2015. But we’re interested in how he projects for the rest of the season, and beyond. Is this a fluke, or the emergence of a new reality? Scanning his Reception Perception data from the first two weeks of 2015 reveals a clear conclusion.

One of the reason’s I’ve never personally believed the Colts should be settled with T.Y. Hilton as their number-one wide receiver, as great as he is, was that he doesn’t profile or play like a traditional X-receiver. Of course, we know players don’t have to meet a size or dimensions qualification to be an X, Antonio Brown and Odell Beckham Jr. are living proof. However, both of those players, in my estimation, do more in traffic, with the ball in their hands and more consistently separate from tight man coverage.

Hilton is a tremendous player, but there’s more room for growth in the Colts passing game. Donte Moncreif has the size Hilton lacks, and can add another dimension to the aerial assault.

Through the first two weeks of the season, the Colts have primarily employed Donte Moncrief as the missing X-receiver; playing on the line of scrimmage 85 percent of the time and at left wide receiver 65 percent of his snaps. T.Y. Hilton has been on and off the field, while Andre Johnson has occupied the old Reggie Wayne slot role. Moncrief seems to have inherited all the snap shares, and more, of the departed Hakeem Nicks. It’s been clear through just two weeks how much more Moncrief brings to the table.

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yep

he's their most complete receiver, i think you can write him in the top 20, top 24 at worst making him a must start wr2 with 1 upside until something changes