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Started By
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Jose Abreu
Posted on 3/31/15 at 7:12 pm
Posted on 3/31/15 at 7:12 pm
Now batting .519 in 51 AB's in ST. 14 game hit streak. I kept thinking this guy was gonna slow down last year, but he didn't.
Is he gonna win the AL MVP this year?
Is he gonna win the AL MVP this year?
2
Posted on 3/31/15 at 7:14 pm to Gtothemoney
quote:
Is he gonna win the AL MVP this year?
Something happen with Trout that I don't know about?
Posted on 3/31/15 at 7:17 pm to MrWiseGuy
Well, maybe everyone gets "Trout fatigue".
Posted on 3/31/15 at 8:00 pm to Gtothemoney
1 BB in 52 ABs
Better question is o/u 30 HRs
Better question is o/u 30 HRs
Posted on 3/31/15 at 8:11 pm to GynoSandberg
Over
.315/36hr/116rbi
.315/36hr/116rbi
Posted on 3/31/15 at 8:14 pm to Gtothemoney
Weird but I'll take the over on the average and under on the rest of the numbers.
Posted on 3/31/15 at 8:42 pm to papz
You think over .315? I say no way.
BABIP was redic last season, as was HR/FB ratio. K rate is still there and doesnt walk too much. Advanced scouting. I just dont see a repeat type season.
Granted, he is on a better team with more protection. I think he still has a good season but more along the lines of .275/26/85 or thereabouts
ETA: forgot you are a closeted Sox fan, too
BABIP was redic last season, as was HR/FB ratio. K rate is still there and doesnt walk too much. Advanced scouting. I just dont see a repeat type season.
Granted, he is on a better team with more protection. I think he still has a good season but more along the lines of .275/26/85 or thereabouts
ETA: forgot you are a closeted Sox fan, too
This post was edited on 3/31/15 at 8:45 pm
Posted on 3/31/15 at 8:46 pm to MrWiseGuy
I like owning trout and Abreu. 
Posted on 3/31/15 at 9:21 pm to GynoSandberg
Naw I'm not a closeted Sox fan... I just think they're going to be good this year. I think it probably fits more under a bold prediction. I know underlying stats are a big part of analyzing and projecting players these days, but I've never been big looking at those type of stats. I don't think I've ever once looked up a guys BABIP... I'm more of a gut feeling type of guy. I still to this day have no clue what xFIP(however it's spelled) is. I just know it deals with pitchers. I'm pretty lost when you guys start talking about those things. I'm that "Keep it simple stupid" guy... it works for me.
You may be right though. I think it's certainly possible he has a sophomore slump now that there's a bigger book on him. Happens all the time.
You may be right though. I think it's certainly possible he has a sophomore slump now that there's a bigger book on him. Happens all the time.
Posted on 3/31/15 at 9:31 pm to papz
quote:
I'm more of a gut feeling type of guy. I still to this day have no clue what xFIP(however it's spelled) is. I just know it deals with pitchers. I'm pretty lost when you guys start talking about those things. I'm that "Keep it simple stu
frickin A.
I know Trevor Bauer doesn't throw strikes, but has a nasty breaking ball.
I leave all the adv metrics shite for the nerds.
Posted on 3/31/15 at 9:35 pm to papz
I was talking baseball with this guy a few weeks back and we were talking about Yelich. I love Yelich and was comparing him to Shin Soo Choo. I was telling him how he was going to be a 20/20 player and the fricker started bring up Yelich's swing angle compared to other players. My fricking jaw dropped to the floor. And because of that and some other fancy stats, he said he'll never hit that many homers.
I know... cool story bro. My point is that there's just so many different stats you can use out their to justify or counteract any projection.
I know... cool story bro. My point is that there's just so many different stats you can use out their to justify or counteract any projection.
Posted on 3/31/15 at 9:40 pm to papz
FIP is basically this, summed up
quote:
As a result, FIP is a statistic that estimates their ERA based on their strikeouts, walks, hit batters, and home runs while assuming average luck on balls in play, defense, and sequencing is a better reflection of that pitcher’s performance over a given period of time.
Posted on 3/31/15 at 9:42 pm to Gtothemoney
quote:
I leave all the adv metrics shite for the nerds.
i said this about OPS 10 years ago. Now it's pretty common in fantasy baseball leagues
FIP and BABIP are pretty basic though. I dont really go past that.
Posted on 3/31/15 at 9:42 pm to Lester Earl
meh.. I'm a SIERA guy myself
Posted on 3/31/15 at 9:47 pm to Lester Earl
I didn't start looking at OPS until I joined the TD fantasy leagues.
Posted on 3/31/15 at 9:51 pm to papz
And I had no idea what Babip before this year. I've been watching baseball since I was 7.
Posted on 3/31/15 at 9:57 pm to Gtothemoney
Dummy!
Posted on 3/31/15 at 10:00 pm to Gtothemoney
I'm rolling with the Brandon Phillips method of fantasy baseball.
Posted on 3/31/15 at 10:13 pm to dj30
Huhbra
Posted on 3/31/15 at 10:16 pm to papz
The advanced metrics have their place. Like 10% of them are even relevant to fantasy baseball. A lot of it is fluff, but some instances hint at breakouts or regressions
Abreu's HR/FB rate tells us that out of all the fly balls he hits, 27% of them went for HR last season. That led the league and Stanton was the only one close. What's even crazier is only 31% of Abreu's batted balls were even Fly balls. Stanton, by comparison, hits a fly ball almost 40% of the time. If Abreu is really that guy, then ok, he's pereninall MVP, Miguel Cabrera in his prime type hitter. Guys like Rizzo, Encarnacion, Bautista sit at about 18% HR/FB
As for his BABIP (.356), it's well above league average, top 5 in the league actually, and is pretty abnormal for a big, power hitting type. Usually your BABIP leaders are speed guys, largely inflated by beating out hits/bunts etc. Or, it's a lot of luck (hello Chris Johnson .394 in 2013). Now, are we talking Abreu in Miggy terms as a hitter? Ok, he may be for real? Or are we talking a little Miggy and a little Chris Johnson, which is still going to produce a nice player, albeit not a top pick in fantasy draft
Bottom line is he can still mash. To the tune of 35 or 25 HRs remains to be seen. There obviously isn't much data to say concretely one way or the other
Abreu's HR/FB rate tells us that out of all the fly balls he hits, 27% of them went for HR last season. That led the league and Stanton was the only one close. What's even crazier is only 31% of Abreu's batted balls were even Fly balls. Stanton, by comparison, hits a fly ball almost 40% of the time. If Abreu is really that guy, then ok, he's pereninall MVP, Miguel Cabrera in his prime type hitter. Guys like Rizzo, Encarnacion, Bautista sit at about 18% HR/FB
As for his BABIP (.356), it's well above league average, top 5 in the league actually, and is pretty abnormal for a big, power hitting type. Usually your BABIP leaders are speed guys, largely inflated by beating out hits/bunts etc. Or, it's a lot of luck (hello Chris Johnson .394 in 2013). Now, are we talking Abreu in Miggy terms as a hitter? Ok, he may be for real? Or are we talking a little Miggy and a little Chris Johnson, which is still going to produce a nice player, albeit not a top pick in fantasy draft
Bottom line is he can still mash. To the tune of 35 or 25 HRs remains to be seen. There obviously isn't much data to say concretely one way or the other
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