re: 2015 Bold Fantasy Baseball Predictions

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Bad
Andrew McCutchen's lower leg soreness zaps his speed and power. Outside top-20 in OF

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Justin Verlander falls off another cliff. Gets shutdown for a "injury"

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1. Avisail Garcia, OF
Chicago White Sox
(ranked at No. 262 in ESPN Fantasy's Top 300)

He is 23 years and 293 days old, which means he's only seven months older than Kris Bryant, and yet he already has played in parts of three seasons in the big leagues. I had him on this list last year, but a shoulder injury in early April limited him to just 46 games, and I think there's reason to believe he could do even more damage this year than he might have with a full season last year. The White Sox have stacked the top of their lineup, with the additions of Melky Cabrera and Adam LaRoche to Adam Eaton and Jose Abreu, and Garcia should hit with a lot of runners on base this year, with opposing pitchers backed into a corner.

The concern about Garcia at the plate has centered on his lack of discipline, his tendency to hack. But the White Sox staff believes he has gotten better about this, about giving himself a better chance to get strikes and swing at strikes. He's never going to be someone who draws a lot of walks, and he'll probably always hack at pitches out of the zone. But the perception of the White Sox coaches is that he's a talented young player who is getting better.

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2. Kendall Graveman, SP Oakland Athletics (not in Top 300) A couple of things to think about with this guy: A. Oakland pitchers generally do well, given the team's ballpark and focus on run prevention. B. The Athletics' front office has a gift for picking players, and when Oakland sent Josh Donaldson to Toronto in an offseason trade, Graveman, an eighth-round pick of the Blue Jays in 2013, was included in the deal. He doesn't strike out many guys, and his stuff is not going to be confused for that of Matt Harvey, but he has demonstrated excellent command, allowing just 44 walks in his first 207 innings in the minors. He also doesn't allow homers (just five so far). Susan Slusser wrote the other day about Graveman's ability to generate ground balls: In 21 1/3 innings this spring, Graveman has recorded 35 outs via grounders and nine in the air, two of them popups on Sunday. He has given up 10 hits and four walks -- and just one run. He finishes Cactus League play with a 0.42 ERA. "I'm just trying to get contact, and weak contact, and the defense played great behind me," Graveman said. "I like to visualize things and I did visualize a good Cactus League season." Something else worth remembering: Oakland doesn't tie itself down with innings counts. They'll monitor Graveman as the long season plays out, and if he's pitching well and throwing comfortably, manager Bob Melvin will keep running him out there. I emailed David Forst, Oakland's assistant GM, and asked about how the Athletics identified Graveman as a trade target. "We actually had excellent reports on him from three different scouts at three different levels last year," Forst replied. "It was a group effort, with Dan Feinstein doing an excellent job managing the pro staff to make sure our coverage was so good."

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3. Matt Harvey, SP New York Mets (No. 75) It's strange to think of Harvey as a sleeper, but look at it this way: If you target Clayton Kershaw in the first round and you miss out, take Harvey. In fact, you might not go wrong taking Harvey instead of Kershaw. There is a chorus of evaluators watching him this spring who believe he is already back to being one of the two or three best pitchers in baseball. He has been that dominant this spring, and his command has been extraordinary.

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4. Jorge Soler, OF
Chicago Cubs
(No. 142)

Kris Bryant is always going to get more attention because he's the better home run hitter, but manager Joe Maddon's description of the 6-foot-4 Soler last week was an eye-opener: Vladimir Guerrero with plate discipline. He can reach a lot of pitches with his swing and makes more contact than a lot of his peers (111 strikeouts in his first 163 games in pro ball), and he's going to hit for average, as well as mashing extra-base hits.

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5. Rougned Odor, 2B
Texas Rangers
(No. 192)

Odor had a full season in the big leagues last season at age 20, and he's got some pop. He can be hyperaggressive, but with more experience and a better lineup around him, he's a middle infielder capable of denting a linescore.

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6. Danny Duffy, SP
Kansas City Royals
(No. 242)

Think about how far the left-hander has come in his journey. When he broke into the big leagues in 2011 at age 22, the perception of him in the organization was that he had a long way to go in his understanding of pitching, and of his command (he had 51 walks in 105 innings). Duffy then had Tommy John surgery in 2012, and made just five starts in 2013. But start by start last year, Duffy seemed to put it all together, posting a 2.23 ERA in his last 12 outings and improving his K/BB ratio to 2.13. Now Duffy is 26 years old, coming off his first full season (plus postseason experience), and he works with the best defense in baseball, and in a pitcher's park. He's worth reaching for.

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• I once did this prediction upon request before the start of the 2010 season, and got the correct answer (Jason Heyward), so why not give it another try? The first home run of 2015 will be hit by Anthony Rizzo. He will hit at least 36 more.

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Good
Alex Guerreo hits 20 home runs and has an .817 OPS

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