BOIL has become predictable | Page 3 | TigerDroppings.com
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econ85
Longwood Fan
Member since Nov 2012
572 posts

re: BOIL has become predictable

You should trade futures. You work in O&G?


L S Usetheforce
New Orleans Saints Fan
College Station
Member since Jun 2004
17556 posts

re: BOIL has become predictable
I don't really understand futures need a hard lesson..........

I don't work Oil and Gas but my brother has a piece of an Oil well "La Cantera" and I get all my news through him and family of that well. Lets just say it produces MASSIVE NATURAL GAS!
This post was edited on 1/23 at 9:25 am


Iowa Golfer
Iowa Fan
Heaven
Member since Dec 2013
2652 posts

re: BOIL has become predictable
Good day to buy July 2014 puts. In the money puts are priced decently today.


TheBigHurt
LSU Fan
Houston
Member since Feb 2010
688 posts

re: BOIL has become predictable
I just bought into KOLD at $55. If it keeps dropping, I'm going to keep buying.


L S Usetheforce
New Orleans Saints Fan
College Station
Member since Jun 2004
17556 posts

re: BOIL has become predictable
Hurt its basically a simple supply and demand issues.......

Natural Gas has a massive supply from US reserves........super cheap come summer once it's restocked with fracking and shale.


This has just been a bitch of a winter and reserves are 15% below normal since fracking and shale has been tapped and producing from 2011.....

Uncharted territories for the reserve.
This post was edited on 1/23 at 9:35 am


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L S Usetheforce
New Orleans Saints Fan
College Station
Member since Jun 2004
17556 posts

re: BOIL has become predictable
We would need to drink some coffee and you'd have to school me Iowa.


L S Usetheforce
New Orleans Saints Fan
College Station
Member since Jun 2004
17556 posts

re: BOIL has become predictable
LINK

That is why UNG jumped!


L S Usetheforce
New Orleans Saints Fan
College Station
Member since Jun 2004
17556 posts

re: BOIL has become predictable
So by next thursday after this weeks cold front hits the reserve hard again and EIA reports I'd expect Kold @ 49ish! UNG at 23.80s-24.10s
This post was edited on 1/23 at 9:39 am


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Iowa Golfer
Iowa Fan
Heaven
Member since Dec 2013
2652 posts

re: BOIL has become predictable
quote:

We would need to drink some coffee and you'd have to school me Iowa.


UNG 23 July puts are selling for $2.27. If you bought one put, you would have the right, but not the obligation to deliver 100 shares of UNG at $23 in July 2014. UNG is trading for about $23 today. You're betting UNG will be at about $20.70 in July. If it isn't, you lose about $235.84, predicated on the option expiring worthless in July. You could sell the option anytime between now and then if you want to limit the loss, or take a profit.

A very cheap and simple way to go short.


L S Usetheforce
New Orleans Saints Fan
College Station
Member since Jun 2004
17556 posts

re: BOIL has become predictable
I see..........interesting.

Lets meet up next thursday morning I think next week is the peak of winter's natural gas run.


econ85
Longwood Fan
Member since Nov 2012
572 posts

re: BOIL has become predictable
Selling the Jul 14 26 calls doesn't look bad.


Iowa Golfer
Iowa Fan
Heaven
Member since Dec 2013
2652 posts

re: BOIL has become predictable
You'd have to make it to Las Vegas. Actually, if you could make it, the room and $120 per day in food are on the casino. I won't be going anywhere cold anytime soon. Get a cheap ticket and I'll buy you an espresso.


I Love Bama
Alabama Fan
Alabama
Member since Nov 2007
34063 posts

re: BOIL has become predictable
I'm going to ride your coattail if you buy any. Let me know so I can mirror. I'm only going to do about $1,000 worth.


L S Usetheforce
New Orleans Saints Fan
College Station
Member since Jun 2004
17556 posts

re: BOIL has become predictable
quote:

You'd have to make it to Las Vegas. Actually, if you could make it, the room and $120 per day in food are on the casino. I won't be going anywhere cold anytime soon. Get a cheap ticket and I'll buy you an espresso.


I have to put people to sleep next Thursday.......but Tigerdroppings will do!


econ85
Longwood Fan
Member since Nov 2012
572 posts

re: BOIL has become predictable
quote:

I have to put people to sleep


Sounds sinister


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econ85
Longwood Fan
Member since Nov 2012
572 posts

re: BOIL has become predictable
I'm going to wait a week before I do anything. If you only want to tie up $1k, then I would trade UNG.


sneakytiger
LSU Fan
Member since Oct 2007
1582 posts

re: BOIL has become predictable
Gas trading $100+ in NE markets last couple days... huge supply constraints. Midwest and NE are fighting each other for gas.

quote:

A very cheap and simple way to go short.


Solid advice, thanks. 24's appear to be cheaper now?
This post was edited on 1/23 at 1:24 pm


Iowa Golfer
Iowa Fan
Heaven
Member since Dec 2013
2652 posts

re: BOIL has become predictable
I bought July $23 puts. $24 puts are .71 higher. You would need an UNG share price of about .15 higher with these puts than the $23 puts. Not worth it to me. I need UNG at $20.51 in a worst case scenario. The $23 puts will be worth more than I bough them for long before the price gets to $20.51 if natty gas goes down in price over the summer months.


Iowa Golfer
Iowa Fan
Heaven
Member since Dec 2013
2652 posts

re: BOIL has become predictable
I sold UNG July 2014 $18 puts and bought July 2014 $20 puts today at a net debit of $46 per contract. The $2 spread limits maximum profits if it is below $18 in July.


cajunatc
LA-Lafayette Fan
Lafayette
Member since Dec 2003
2436 posts

re: BOIL has become predictable
heard that in a couple of years many trucking/shipping fleets will be switching to Natural Gas...thus keeping the NG prices up even through the summer. Any truth?



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