BOIL has become predictable | Page 3 | TigerDroppings.com
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econ85
Longwood Fan
Member since Nov 2012
572 posts

re: BOIL has become predictable

You should trade futures. You work in O&G?


L S Usetheforce
New Orleans Saints Fan
College Station
Member since Jun 2004
17325 posts

re: BOIL has become predictable
I don't really understand futures need a hard lesson..........

I don't work Oil and Gas but my brother has a piece of an Oil well "La Cantera" and I get all my news through him and family of that well. Lets just say it produces MASSIVE NATURAL GAS!
This post was edited on 1/23 at 9:25 am


Iowa Golfer
Iowa Fan
Heaven
Member since Dec 2013
2390 posts

re: BOIL has become predictable
Good day to buy July 2014 puts. In the money puts are priced decently today.


TheBigHurt
LSU Fan
Houston
Member since Feb 2010
684 posts
Online

re: BOIL has become predictable
I just bought into KOLD at $55. If it keeps dropping, I'm going to keep buying.


L S Usetheforce
New Orleans Saints Fan
College Station
Member since Jun 2004
17325 posts

re: BOIL has become predictable
Hurt its basically a simple supply and demand issues.......

Natural Gas has a massive supply from US reserves........super cheap come summer once it's restocked with fracking and shale.


This has just been a bitch of a winter and reserves are 15% below normal since fracking and shale has been tapped and producing from 2011.....

Uncharted territories for the reserve.
This post was edited on 1/23 at 9:35 am


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L S Usetheforce
New Orleans Saints Fan
College Station
Member since Jun 2004
17325 posts

re: BOIL has become predictable
We would need to drink some coffee and you'd have to school me Iowa.


L S Usetheforce
New Orleans Saints Fan
College Station
Member since Jun 2004
17325 posts

re: BOIL has become predictable
LINK

That is why UNG jumped!


L S Usetheforce
New Orleans Saints Fan
College Station
Member since Jun 2004
17325 posts

re: BOIL has become predictable
So by next thursday after this weeks cold front hits the reserve hard again and EIA reports I'd expect Kold @ 49ish! UNG at 23.80s-24.10s
This post was edited on 1/23 at 9:39 am


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Iowa Golfer
Iowa Fan
Heaven
Member since Dec 2013
2390 posts

re: BOIL has become predictable
quote:

We would need to drink some coffee and you'd have to school me Iowa.


UNG 23 July puts are selling for $2.27. If you bought one put, you would have the right, but not the obligation to deliver 100 shares of UNG at $23 in July 2014. UNG is trading for about $23 today. You're betting UNG will be at about $20.70 in July. If it isn't, you lose about $235.84, predicated on the option expiring worthless in July. You could sell the option anytime between now and then if you want to limit the loss, or take a profit.

A very cheap and simple way to go short.


L S Usetheforce
New Orleans Saints Fan
College Station
Member since Jun 2004
17325 posts

re: BOIL has become predictable
I see..........interesting.

Lets meet up next thursday morning I think next week is the peak of winter's natural gas run.


econ85
Longwood Fan
Member since Nov 2012
572 posts

re: BOIL has become predictable
Selling the Jul 14 26 calls doesn't look bad.


Iowa Golfer
Iowa Fan
Heaven
Member since Dec 2013
2390 posts

re: BOIL has become predictable
You'd have to make it to Las Vegas. Actually, if you could make it, the room and $120 per day in food are on the casino. I won't be going anywhere cold anytime soon. Get a cheap ticket and I'll buy you an espresso.


I Love Bama
Alabama Fan
Alabama
Member since Nov 2007
33833 posts

re: BOIL has become predictable
I'm going to ride your coattail if you buy any. Let me know so I can mirror. I'm only going to do about $1,000 worth.


L S Usetheforce
New Orleans Saints Fan
College Station
Member since Jun 2004
17325 posts

re: BOIL has become predictable
quote:

You'd have to make it to Las Vegas. Actually, if you could make it, the room and $120 per day in food are on the casino. I won't be going anywhere cold anytime soon. Get a cheap ticket and I'll buy you an espresso.


I have to put people to sleep next Thursday.......but Tigerdroppings will do!


econ85
Longwood Fan
Member since Nov 2012
572 posts

re: BOIL has become predictable
quote:

I have to put people to sleep


Sounds sinister


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econ85
Longwood Fan
Member since Nov 2012
572 posts

re: BOIL has become predictable
I'm going to wait a week before I do anything. If you only want to tie up $1k, then I would trade UNG.


sneakytiger
LSU Fan
Member since Oct 2007
1515 posts

re: BOIL has become predictable
Gas trading $100+ in NE markets last couple days... huge supply constraints. Midwest and NE are fighting each other for gas.

quote:

A very cheap and simple way to go short.


Solid advice, thanks. 24's appear to be cheaper now?
This post was edited on 1/23 at 1:24 pm


Iowa Golfer
Iowa Fan
Heaven
Member since Dec 2013
2390 posts

re: BOIL has become predictable
I bought July $23 puts. $24 puts are .71 higher. You would need an UNG share price of about .15 higher with these puts than the $23 puts. Not worth it to me. I need UNG at $20.51 in a worst case scenario. The $23 puts will be worth more than I bough them for long before the price gets to $20.51 if natty gas goes down in price over the summer months.


Iowa Golfer
Iowa Fan
Heaven
Member since Dec 2013
2390 posts

re: BOIL has become predictable
I sold UNG July 2014 $18 puts and bought July 2014 $20 puts today at a net debit of $46 per contract. The $2 spread limits maximum profits if it is below $18 in July.


cajunatc
LA-Lafayette Fan
Lafayette
Member since Dec 2003
2436 posts

re: BOIL has become predictable
heard that in a couple of years many trucking/shipping fleets will be switching to Natural Gas...thus keeping the NG prices up even through the summer. Any truth?



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