BOIL has become predictable | TigerDroppings.com
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L S Usetheforce
New Orleans Saints Fan
College Station
Member since Jun 2004
17399 posts

BOIL has become predictable

Ive been studying it and making money on it since 2011.........

LINK

This time I got in at 29......1000 shares........gonna hit 44 before winter even stretches its arms IMO

Hopefully natural gas haters(ie green energy folk), and production will drop the price a few more times before it settles at its rightful place around 4.50ish in the next 5 years.

Note 4.50 natural gas equates to a mid 40s boil price


This post was edited on 4/17 at 8:54 pm



b-rab2
LSU Fan
Lafayette
Member since Dec 2005
10363 posts

re: BOIL has become predictable
In UNG @ 18 hopefully its a cold winter


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TigeRoots
New Orleans Saints Fan
Member since Oct 2008
3944 posts

re: BOIL has become predictable
Thanks for the info. I was looking to make a play on something like this. I'm in.


L S Usetheforce
New Orleans Saints Fan
College Station
Member since Jun 2004
17399 posts

re: BOIL has become predictable
Anytime you see boil at 32 or lower buy! Basically means ng is at around 3.40iish.


diat150
Tulane Fan
OPELOUSAS
Member since Jun 2005
20298 posts

re: BOIL has become predictable
how high do you think it will go in the next few months?


PropofoLSU
LSU Fan
College Station, TX
Member since Aug 2013
372 posts

re: BOIL has become predictable
I'm selling what I got at 44, but it could hit 55 without a hitch(if midwest and dallas area stay frozen this week you will see it hit 41).........now isn't the time, IMO, I wouldn't tell anyone to buy BOIL above 36.

Watch KOLD........if you see it at 65ish BUY.......its the opposite of BOIL!
This post was edited on 12/9 at 4:29 pm


I Love Bama
Alabama Fan
Alabama
Member since Nov 2007
33941 posts

re: BOIL has become predictable
damn. Nice.


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TigeRoots
New Orleans Saints Fan
Member since Oct 2008
3944 posts

re: BOIL has become predictable
quote:

Watch KOLD........if you see it at 65ish BUY.......its the opposite of BOIL!



Can you elaborate on this a little more?


L S Usetheforce
New Orleans Saints Fan
College Station
Member since Jun 2004
17399 posts

re: BOIL has become predictable
It shorts the dj-ng price so when natural gas is at approximately 4.50ish then kold will be in the mid to low 60s if ng hits 5 below 60......now when natural gas prices fall in march kold will increase as ng prices fall.


L S Usetheforce
New Orleans Saints Fan
College Station
Member since Jun 2004
17399 posts

re: BOIL has become predictable
Note these etfs aren't long term holds and require vigilance and everyday care....I have sell points set and buy points sets because, it can go south quickly.


L S Usetheforce
New Orleans Saints Fan
College Station
Member since Jun 2004
17399 posts

re: BOIL has become predictable
LINK

If the article is true and march is 6 calls you could see boil at 55-60 by march.

And all you'd have yo do is route for cold fronts and snow.
This post was edited on 12/10 at 10:44 am


Broke
LSU Fan
AKA Buttercup
Member since Sep 2006
58769 posts

re: BOIL has become predictable
quote:

And all you'd have yo do is route for cold fronts and snow.


Hence is unpredictable. Every stock known to man is unpredictable. Thinking you've figured out the secret formula is in itself a recipe for disaster.


Iowa Golfer
Iowa Fan
Heaven
Member since Dec 2013
2497 posts

re: BOIL has become predictable
I trade UNG option a lot. Never heard of BOIL until now. A couple of things to be aware of. UNG invests in the near month futures contracts. The BOIL index is different, and based on what I researched this evening, it has to be hugely volatile. Their options also carry what I think are huge premium due to this.

I like UNG. Easier to pick a get in price, and a get out price, or an expiration month. With BOIL, they are both long and short futures contracts, and it would be hard for me to figure out where to get in.

Alhough some of y'all seem to have that figured out.


TigeRoots
New Orleans Saints Fan
Member since Oct 2008
3944 posts

re: BOIL has become predictable
What's your get in and get out range for UNG?


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I Love Bama
Alabama Fan
Alabama
Member since Nov 2007
33941 posts

re: BOIL has become predictable
quote:

I trade UNG option a lot. Never heard of BOIL until now. A couple of things to be aware of. UNG invests in the near month futures contracts. The BOIL index is different, and based on what I researched this evening, it has to be hugely volatile. Their options also carry what I think are huge premium due to this.

I like UNG. Easier to pick a get in price, and a get out price, or an expiration month. With BOIL, they are both long and short futures contracts, and it would be hard for me to figure out where to get in.


Do you mind sharing some of your trades with us and some of your plans going forward?

I got into options pretty hard in college. I made A LOT of money in about a year time. Thought I had it all figured out, and lost it all. Pretty devastating to a 21 year old....

I've got some play money now and have thought about getting in a few contracts. I'm just not sure I have the time or energy for those types of emotional highs and lows again yet.


Iowa Golfer
Iowa Fan
Heaven
Member since Dec 2013
2497 posts

re: BOIL has become predictable
19-20.70.

The high end for me on something like this is always right around NAV.

The last trade I made was buying July $19 puts at .35, and selling them at .58. I held 16 days, and made $92 per contract. I always leave money on the table as the puts went higher, but I believe pigs get slaughtered.

The problem with ETF's like this is that people think they own the commodity. UNG owns the near months futures contract, and you need to be aware of what underlying asset the ETF's pricing is based off of.

I always look at the pricing of the stock, the spot price and fundamentals of the broader asset class, the stock options pricing, the futures contracts pricing and the future's options. I also look at liquidity, so I know I can get out if I need to if it turns the wrong way.

These are trades for me. Short term, designed to get in and out. Not long term investments. UNG would never be a long term investment for me. If you owned UNG, you wouldn't own anything in my opinion.
This post was edited on 12/11 at 7:19 am


PropofoLSU
LSU Fan
College Station, TX
Member since Aug 2013
372 posts

re: BOIL has become predictable
He linked an article to $6 March calls on natural gas! Futures seems like the bet
This post was edited on 12/11 at 12:28 pm


L S Usetheforce
New Orleans Saints Fan
College Station
Member since Jun 2004
17399 posts

re: BOIL has become predictable
LINK

More information about where natural gas may be headed.

Those hard data #s suggest big time increases.
This post was edited on 12/15 at 10:02 am


Iowa Golfer
Iowa Fan
Heaven
Member since Dec 2013
2497 posts

re: BOIL has become predictable
Jan calls are cheap on UNG. Just put in an order for Jan 20 C's.


L S Usetheforce
New Orleans Saints Fan
College Station
Member since Jun 2004
17399 posts

re: BOIL has become predictable
You are gonna make some good money then.


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