Statisticians: What is the % that calling TO with 20 seconds would've affected | TigerDroppings.com
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Methuselah
LSU Fan
On da Riva
Member since Jan 2005
15210 posts

Statisticians: What is the % that calling TO with 20 seconds would've affected

Not excusing what happened and would have loved any chance.

But, what is the % chance that calling a time out with 20 or so seconds would have changed the outcome? We would have been without any more time outs and starting likely starting well on out side of the field.

Gotta think it would have been pretty extreme long shot.


Powerman
LSU Fan
Corpus Christi, TX
Member since Jan 2004
121199 posts

re: Statisticians: What is the % that calling TO with 20 seconds would've affected
Sure it's an extreme long shot. But he basically guaranteed that we had a 0 percent chance of winning if they made the field goal. It really can't be defended.


GRTiger
USA Fan
On a roof eating alligator pie
Member since Dec 2008
23069 posts

re: Statisticians: What is the % that calling TO with 20 seconds would've affected
I'm no statistician, by I'm pretty confident that the outcome wouldn't have changed.

There is always something that people have to point to and say "If this was different, we would have won the game!" I think that 20 seconds is the weakest attempt.


RedMustang
Auburn Fan
Member since Oct 2011
4784 posts

re: Statisticians: What is the % that calling TO with 20 seconds would've affected
3.7%


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Bear Is Dead
LSU Fan
Monroe
Member since Nov 2007
3975 posts

re: Statisticians: What is the % that calling TO with 20 seconds would've affected
Not a statistician, but we would've had a razor thin chance to win. That's the worst part of this, we were probably going to lose anyway. Miles just gave the masses more fuel, even if it was pointless. Dumb move, but we still lose in that situation.


Mo Jeaux
LSU Fan
NYC
Member since Aug 2008
16170 posts

re: Statisticians: What is the % that calling TO with 20 seconds would've affected
quote:

Sure it's an extreme long shot. But he basically guaranteed that we had a 0 percent chance of winning if they made the field goal. It really can't be defended.



This.


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Relham10
LSU Fan
On Da Bayou, Louisiana
Member since Jan 2013
3157 posts

re: Statisticians: What is the % that calling TO with 20 seconds would've affected
5% chance it would have changed the outcome


The312
Northwestern Fan
I Live in The Three One Two
Member since Aug 2008
6967 posts

re: Statisticians: What is the % that calling TO with 20 seconds would've affected
quote:

Statisticians: What is the % that calling TO with 20 seconds would've affected


It was closer to thirty seconds than twenty. In any event, irrespective of the exact probabilities, failing to call the TO was indefensible stupidity.


lsusteve1
LSU Fan
Nearest Deer Stand
Member since Dec 2004
21388 posts

re: Statisticians: What is the % that calling TO with 20 seconds would've affected
3 INT's

6 3rd and 8 or longer conversions on our D

That is why we lost.....not because we lost 20 seconds


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kingbob
LSU Fan
Sorrento, LA
Member since Nov 2010
23820 posts

re: Statisticians: What is the % that calling TO with 20 seconds would've affected
The difference is exponential. 20 seconds is 3 pass attempts, a spike, and a field goal attempt. It would make for a long shot, but it would be a shot. It bumps LSU's chances up from .1% to probably around 20%.


heartbreakTiger
Missouri Fan
grinding for my grinders
Member since Jan 2008
123937 posts

re: Statisticians: What is the % that calling TO with 20 seconds would've affected
quote:

Sure it's an extreme long shot. But he basically guaranteed that we had a 0 percent chance of winning if they made the field goal. It really can't be defended.
dont bring this reasoning to miles fans. they are too stupid to understand the issue isn't rather or not we would have won its the fact that our coach killed the very small percent chance we had.


MountainTiger
LSU Fan
Colorado Springs
Member since Dec 2008
5360 posts

re: Statisticians: What is the % that calling TO with 20 seconds would've affected
What had a much better chance of changing the outcome would have been to use up more clock on the scoring drive right before that. We hand off to Hill a couple of more times and there's not enough time left for OM to drive far enough for a field goal. I figure our chances in overtime would have been no worse than 50/50.


The312
Northwestern Fan
I Live in The Three One Two
Member since Aug 2008
6967 posts

re: Statisticians: What is the % that calling TO with 20 seconds would've affected
quote:

the issue isn't rather or not we would have won its the fact that our coach killed the very small percent chance we had.


This is basically a correct statement.


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GRTiger
USA Fan
On a roof eating alligator pie
Member since Dec 2008
23069 posts

re: Statisticians: What is the % that calling TO with 20 seconds would've affected
quote:

failing to call the TO was indefensible stupidity.


Yes, to clarify, I'm not defending the decision, because it sucked. I'm just not losing sleep over it because I think there was no way we were marching down the field given the first 59:30 of the game.


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lsusteve1
LSU Fan
Nearest Deer Stand
Member since Dec 2004
21388 posts

re: Statisticians: What is the % that calling TO with 20 seconds would've affected
Logic has nothing to do with your Miles hate

We lost because of to's and inept D on 3rd downs

But that doesn't help your shitty agenda


heartbreakTiger
Missouri Fan
grinding for my grinders
Member since Jan 2008
123937 posts

re: Statisticians: What is the % that calling TO with 20 seconds would've affected
that is dumb though, when you are down a touchdown you dont play the game of oh let us take down the clock to a precise level. you have to make sure the game is tied. now if we get to the one or something maybe wait till the play clock is lower before snapping it but you can't say well we dont want to score quick here when you are down.


PurpleAndGold86
Member since Jun 2012
11036 posts

re: Statisticians: What is the % that calling TO with 20 seconds would've affected
quote:

I think that 20 seconds is the weakest attempt.


More than likely the 25 seconds that were left on the clock after the third down play wouldn't have allowed LSU to go score any points, we will never know.

It was, however, incredibly stupid. How do you not call a timeout and at least give yourself a slim chance?

I'm a Miles supporter and I do not think we are on the decline like most of the board, but that was just dumb. There is no argument on the face of the planet that would make that decision make sense, ESPECIALLY since it was 4th down for Ole Miss and they had no other decision except to kick the field goal.


biglego
LSU Fan
your mom knows
Member since Nov 2007
26331 posts

re: Statisticians: What is the % that calling TO with 20 seconds would've affected
He should've called it sooner but whatever.


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Vlad The Inhaler
Colorado State Fan
Moose Jaw, SK
Member since Sep 2008
3160 posts

re: Statisticians: What is the % that calling TO with 20 seconds would've affected
Miles inferred that our best chance, in his opinion, was to ice the kicker and block the kick.

How common is it to block field goals? IDK, but not great, and even more rare to block two in one game.

IMO, 20 seconds to get roughly 45 yards with no time outs > blocking an easy field goal. Of course, that assumes the team would be organized enough to run that kind of hurry up offense and rush the field goal unit in on time.


LNCHBOX
LSU Fan
70001
Member since Jun 2009
25671 posts

re: Statisticians: What is the % that calling TO with 20 seconds would've affected
quote:

around 20%.


20 seconds with no timeouts and you think we win 1 out of 5?


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