Scoring distribution | TigerDroppings.com

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brmark70816
LSU Fan
Baton Rouge, La
Member since Feb 2011
2044 posts

Scoring distribution



After looking through this past seasons team stats, I noticed that only 4 teams had 3 guys score at least 15+ppg (Brooklyn, Clippers, GS and Miami). That is the most across the league. So it got me thinking that we have 5 guys that are projected to score 15+ppg. Is that possible? If it isn't, who's numbers suffer?






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drake20
New Orleans Saints Fan
Baton Rouge
Member since Oct 2005
10867 posts

re: Scoring distribution


Jrue's points will be down...Gordon and/or Evans too





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Chad504boy
New Orleans Saints Fan
Five Oh Four
Member since Feb 2005
82876 posts

re: Scoring distribution


All depends on Oden. Oden will get his 16 pts 8rbs and 4 blocks in 14 minutes.





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Jester
LSU Fan
Baton Rouge
Member since Feb 2006
17459 posts

re: Scoring distribution


quote:

All depends on Oden. Oden will get his 16 pts 8rbs and 4 blocks in 14 minutes.


Someone has to score the rock on Oden's 12 assists.






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That's BS
New Orleans Pelicans Fan
Smoothie King Center/Ponchatoula,LA
Member since Jan 2012
1137 posts

re: Scoring distribution


I think we have 5 guys average between 15-20. So much balance, and on any given night any of them could score 25 or 10. Gonna be fun to watch!

If anyone suffers, it might be Ryno, depending on how teams guard him. Likely less shots (won't be asked to create at the end of shot clocks nearly as much) but more open shots. Should be more efficient.

I think Ego gets his 15 just b/c he'll get 4-5 ppg at the free throw line alone.

Evans will destroy the 2nd units.

AD will get 10 ppg at least just from lobs, put backs, and free throws. And add in his refined jumper, gets 15 easily.

Jrue has the chance to lose a few ppg as he focuses more on distributing, but he should still reach about 16 ppg.


I think we definitely have 4 guys average 15 ppg, and if Ego misses a big chunk of games but averages over 15 in the games he plays, I think we'll have 5 guys average the 15.

But I'm always the optimist...






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Chad504boy
New Orleans Saints Fan
Five Oh Four
Member since Feb 2005
82876 posts

re: Scoring distribution


quote:

I think we have 5 guys average between 15-20.






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TigerinATL
New Orleans Pelicans Fan
Member since Feb 2005
33828 posts

re: Scoring distribution


quote:

So it got me thinking that we have 5 guys that are projected to score 15+ppg. Is that possible? If it isn't, who's numbers suffer?


Last season: LINK
Team eFG% 48.9 17th in league
Team Pace 88.5 29th in league

I'm not getting the numbers to match up our actual PPG, but eFG converts 3s to 2s and pace is your shots per 48 minutes. In theory 88.5 x .489 x 2 should give us the PPG but I got 86.5 vs. actual PPG of 94.1. Anyone see what I'm missing?

Looking at how others fair, a jump to a pace of 92 possessions per game (around 15th in the league) and an eFG% of 50.5% (around 11th in the league) doesn't seem unreasonable and that leads to 92.9 rather than 86.5. An increase of 6.4 PPG

Top scorers last season

Gordon 17
Anderson 16.2
Vasquez 13.9
Davis 13.5
Lopez 11.3

So just the expected increase in pace and efficiency could get you there

17
16.2
15
15
15

with .1 points to spare.








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Jester
LSU Fan
Baton Rouge
Member since Feb 2006
17459 posts

re: Scoring distribution


Nice, at first I was thinking it was a silly, though, but it's really not. Now, we may not get many from anyone else on the team, but I wasn't counting on Aminu or Rivers for many points, anyway.





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Chair
LSU Fan
New Orleans
Member since Jan 2013
1835 posts
 Online 

re: Scoring distribution


quote:

Evans will destroy the 2nd units.


If the plan that the board thinks will happen actalyl does happen (him coming in most games with the second unit), then yes this will be accurate. It is really exciting to think about having a starter com in to anchor your bench for a lot of the season. This was a really big problem we had last year.






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LosLobos111
New Orleans Pelicans Fan
Pels=Best team in LA
Member since Feb 2011
15930 posts
 Online 

re: Scoring distribution


rivers/aminu/morrow should get 15-20 ppg a night between them


This post was edited on 7/29 at 2:42 pm


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brmark70816
LSU Fan
Baton Rouge, La
Member since Feb 2011
2044 posts

re: Scoring distribution


quote:

So just the expected increase in pace and efficiency could get you there


That is an awfully flat distribution. You would think one of the guys would pull away and score closer to 20ppg (Gordon?). I also think Davis will make a bit more of a jump, given he will be the primary, or only, post option. If his scoring only goes up 1.5 a game, I think that might be a bad sign.

I'm guessing/hoping we will have a similar distribution as Denver. Last season they had 6 guys in double figures, with 5 over 12ppg, but no one over 16.7ppg. But Denver was also the highest scoring team in the league. So probably not realistic to set the bar that high. It just means a couple of our guys personal number will dip or not live up to projections..






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drake20
New Orleans Saints Fan
Baton Rouge
Member since Oct 2005
10867 posts

re: Scoring distribution


quote:

If anyone suffers, it might be Ryno, depending on how teams guard him. Likely less shots (won't be asked to create at the end of shot clocks nearly as much) but more open shots. Should be more efficient.



i think Ryno benefits...






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tadelatt
LSU Fan
Buga Nation
Member since Jan 2010
9263 posts

re: Scoring distribution


That's tough but Jrue will suffer most because he ends up dishing more than swishing.

Evans off the bench won't be a 20 ppg guy but I wouldn't mind it.

Ryno is the best shooter in the game besides Curry so I don't expect his numbers to go down.

EG will suffer because, well, he is EG.

AD is the mystery. Does he score 15-18 ppg or become more defensive this season and end up around 12-14ppg with 12-14 RPG and 2 BPG?






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drake20
New Orleans Saints Fan
Baton Rouge
Member since Oct 2005
10867 posts

re: Scoring distribution


quote:

end up around 12-14ppg


he would have to work hard to score that low...he made 5.5 shots per game last season in 10.6 attempts. He will get his 10+ shots, and his FG% should go up. He'll get more minutes and has improved his game and strength.

He will probably make at least 3 free throws per game.

6.5 made field goals and 3 made free throws is 16 PPG, and that's a pretty conservative estimate, imo.






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