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barry
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The decline of Felix Hernandez' Velocity


Buster Olney tweeted this the other day

Hernandez' fastball velocity

2007- 96.3
2008- 94.5
2009- 93.8
2010- 94.4
2011- 93.4
2012- 92.4
2013- 91.5

Amazingly his xFIP(era independent of fielding)has declined

2007- 3.27
2008- 3.83
2009- 3.37
2010- 3.14
2011- 3.15
2012- 3.2
2013- 2.56

Obviously younger guys tend to grip it and rip it so a drop in velocity is expected for lots of power pitchers, but Felix is taking it to a new level. It's clear he's learned to pitch more than throw, but the mph he's lost the last 3 years is what scares me. This will likely be his 5th consecutive year with 230+ IP, you don't see this sort of usage without eventual deterioration. Luckily he has other great pitches and doesn't rely solely on his fastball.

He did picked up the use of his sinker in 2010 and he throws the majority of the time now v his 4 seamer. His sinker has declined in velocity step by step with is 4 seamer also.

His K/9 has increased every year since 2007. One thing is he's giving up some velocity for the sake of movement. He's seemed to increase his movement on his slider and curveball compared to when he was throwing mid 90's.

Either way it should be interesting to see how it works out. He can't continue the trend of dropping a mph off his fastball every year. Luckily for Felix the mariners blow so he never has to pitch in the postseason.







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Vicks Kennel Club
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re: The decline of Felix Hernandez' Velocity


It is probably from the neck tat. He outdouched Yadier on that one, and that is saying something.





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goldenbadger08
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re: The decline of Felix Hernandez' Velocity


thats a drop off





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harry coleman beast
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re: The decline of Felix Hernandez' Velocity


His numbers are still fantastic.





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Memphis
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re: The decline of Felix Hernandez' Velocity


He's still a great pitcher, but those numbers are alarming





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Vicks Kennel Club
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re: The decline of Felix Hernandez' Velocity


I think this was the year that a few people started to project he was going to start to slow down just a little bit, in terms of success. He is still young. Also, he could just be a fricking horse like CC is. Not every pitcher is the same. It would not shock me for him to be a Cy contender for four more years despite his velocity decline.





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barry
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re: The decline of Felix Hernandez' Velocity


quote:

His numbers are still fantastic.


Thank you captain obvious. Thats what I said. He's only 27 though so you don't want to see this sort of velocity loss.






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MSMHater
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re: The decline of Felix Hernandez' Velocity


I saw those same numbers side by side with Tim Linsecumb (sp?) a few weeks ago.

HUGE difference between the two. Pretty good illustration of learning to adjust as your "stuff" does.






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OBUDan
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re: The decline of Felix Hernandez' Velocity


Yeah, I saw this tweet the other day and thought the same thing.

It's interesting, because usually loss of velocity is associated with declining performance, but he's just gotten better.

The Reverse Lincecum.






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Memphis
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re: The decline of Felix Hernandez' Velocity


Lincecums mechanics caught up with him


This post was edited on 6/24 at 4:17 pm


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harry coleman beast
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re: The decline of Felix Hernandez' Velocity


quote:

Thank you captain obvious. Thats what I said. He's only 27 though so you don't want to see this sort of velocity loss.









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barry
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re: The decline of Felix Hernandez' Velocity


One big thing is he's always had really good separation between his fastball velocity and his breaking pitches.





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barry
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re: The decline of Felix Hernandez' Velocity








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IndependentGeorge
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re: The decline of Felix Hernandez' Velocity


He has a contract way beyond what he is actually worth.





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barry
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re: The decline of Felix Hernandez' Velocity


quote:

He has a contract way beyond what he is actually worth.


Along with every big free agent in the last 10 years






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OBUDan
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re: The decline of Felix Hernandez' Velocity


Yeah, that definitely plays into it.

Interestingly, last year and this year, his four seam velo upticked as the season wore on:

LINK






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harry coleman beast
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re: The decline of Felix Hernandez' Velocity


quote:

He has a contract way beyond what he is actually worth.


Most MLB players do.






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IndependentGeorge
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re: The decline of Felix Hernandez' Velocity


Yeah true





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harry coleman beast
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re: The decline of Felix Hernandez' Velocity


Just ask the Angels





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OBUDan
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re: The decline of Felix Hernandez' Velocity


quote:

He has a contract way beyond what he is actually worth.


He's one of the 5 best pitchers in baseball, and probably the second or third best since 2009.







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