Is he going to be someone that ends up being an MLB caliber guy, or what?
Yeah, I think it's pretty safe to say that he should be good for at least a few years in the Majors barring injuries.
Others might disagree with me here, but if you look at the most talented LSU pitchers who never panned out in MLB, such as Brett Laxton, Lane Mestepey, etc., most of that had to do with injuries. The same goes with shortened MLB careers, as was the case with Ogea (only 6 years in the Majors), Sirotka (only 6 years in the Majors), Ainsworth (only 4 years in the Majors), etc.
If you are looking for the most talented LSU pitchers who never made it--and
who (arguably) weren't derailed due to injury--that list might include Scott Schultz, Lloyd Peever, Patrick Coogan, etc.; but I think it's pretty clear that Aaron Nola has more pro talent than they did. And even pitchers like Greene, Keisler, Youman, & Yarnell, made it to the Majors for at least a little while.
Of course this is assuming that Gausman & Ranaudo make it to the Majors for a few years as well, but I think they well. How pitchers pan out in the Majors once they're there is very hard to predict, but I really do think Aaron will at least get a few years in MLB to show whether he can make a decent and productive career out of it. Now whether that means he will ever reach 30, 40, or 50 MLB wins or not, who knows, right?
For an interesting article, see John Sickels's " Louisiana State University Pitchers in Pro Baseball, 1990-2010
See also where I showed the breakdown of pitchers on the 2012 Major League All-Star roster ( LINK
), where 4 were foreign, 10 were straight from U.S. HS, and 14 played college ball in the U.S.
See also my post
in the other thread about how those 5 pitchers from the 1989 team produced 320 MLB total wins, with each getting at least 36.