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DriveByBBQ
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Willard's Garage
Member since Jan 2011
4608 posts

S&P 500 vs. US Macro 2011, 2012, 2013...Graphs



Somethings off...
This post was edited on 5/2 at 10:40 pm



GenesChin
Virginia Fan
The Promise Land
Member since Feb 2012
16897 posts

re: S&P 500 vs. US Macro 2011, 2012, 2013...Graphs
What is the US Macro data shown? Never heard of it. Just an amateur


TheHiddenFlask
Clemson Fan
The Welsh red light district
Member since Jul 2008
17798 posts

re: S&P 500 vs. US Macro 2011, 2012, 2013...Graphs
I remember the first time I read zerohedge...,.


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ZereauxSum
LSU Fan
Lot 23E
Member since Nov 2008
10176 posts

re: S&P 500 vs. US Macro 2011, 2012, 2013...Graphs
quote:

What is the US Macro data shown?


I've never heard if it either, but I'm not a securities guy.

Is it some sort of composite meant to represent economic growth?


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C
LSU Fan
The Woodlands, TX
Member since Dec 2007
23204 posts

re: S&P 500 vs. US Macro 2011, 2012, 2013...Graphs
Ignoring the reality that past history does not equal future results, I don't see a disconnect from the three graphs shown; just the bottom graph showing a later period in the cycle. The stock drop has followed the drop in whatever the macro is.


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BennyAndTheInkJets
Arkansas Fan
NYC / Orange County
Member since Nov 2010
4322 posts

re: S&P 500 vs. US Macro 2011, 2012, 2013...Graphs
This is why you should always ready ZH in context.

Look at the left hand axis, its the nominal value of the S&P 500. The right hand axis is the change in the OECD's leading economic indicator statistic for the US. Yea, it had a crazy convergence in 2011, but guess what happened in 2012? It didn't. Dan Ivandjiiski is an absolute boss at cherry picking information to get the fear mongering going, he also got busted for insider trading back in the 90's which is why he has a lot of time to cherry pick.

This isn't anything new, we have the largest divergence between economics and markets, from my belief but I need to confirm, in the history of the world. Kind of what happens whenever the largest players in the market have a hypothetically unlimited bank account. It's a game of musical chairs right now, and the hope is that the conductor can play just long enough to add some chairs back to the circle before the music stops. The question is do we have more chairs to add or not, even though these charts suck my belief is more to the latter. That being said, we've thought that for a long time. Doesn't mean you still can't get positive investment returns. The best market environment is when some are scared and some aren't. When everyone is euphoric or scared bad things happen.
This post was edited on 5/3 at 7:59 am


Meauxjeaux
Memphis Fan
90248 posts including my alters
Member since Jun 2005
19161 posts
Online

re: S&P 500 vs. US Macro 2011, 2012, 2013...Graphs
quote:

This isn't anything new, we have the largest divergence between economics and markets, from my belief but I need to confirm, in the history of the world. Kind of what happens whenever the largest players in the market have a hypothetically unlimited bank account. It's a game of musical chairs right now, and the hope is that the conductor can play just long enough to add some chairs back to the circle before the music stops. The question is do we have more chairs to add or not, even though these charts suck my belief is more to the latter. That being said, we've thought that for a long time. Doesn't mean you still can't get positive investment returns. The best market environment is when some are scared and some aren't. When everyone is euphoric or scared bad things happen.


Fascinating read.

That being the case, do you think it's crazy that gold bugs and bitcoiners are making the noise they are making these days?

I'm not a gold bug, but I understand what they are saying and don't understand the ridicule they get.

Sure a long term reinvesting plan has killed gold returns over the last 70 years.

But that's not the point of gold in today's environment. It has a purpose and that purpose may be more important today than it was 20, 50, 70 years ago.

Again, I'm not a gold bug. I own 1 coin. Just 1. lol fml


Chad504boy
New Orleans Saints Fan
Greenbriar WV
Member since Feb 2005
91578 posts
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re: S&P 500 vs. US Macro 2011, 2012, 2013...Graphs
paging baylor


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RickAstley
LSU Fan
Reno, Nevada
Member since May 2011
1674 posts

re: S&P 500 vs. US Macro 2011, 2012, 2013...Graphs
quote:

I own 1 coin


lol you're poor
This post was edited on 5/3 at 10:48 am


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BennyAndTheInkJets
Arkansas Fan
NYC / Orange County
Member since Nov 2010
4322 posts

re: S&P 500 vs. US Macro 2011, 2012, 2013...Graphs
quote:

But that's not the point of gold in today's environment. It has a purpose and that purpose may be more important today than it was 20, 50, 70 years ago.

I'm assuming you mean as an inflation indicator against all currencies. I'd argue that correlation is broken but I could go a long while about that.

This is the data point that I always like pointing to when people say "the Fed's causing so much inflation". Since the start of 2008, the dollar index (DXY) has appreciated 7.3%. Since the beginning of QE1 when the Fed first started puchasing mortgages on a mass scale the dollar index has depreciated 3.3%, however that data point must also be kept in context as the dollar appreciated like crazy post Lehman. So adjusting parameters, since right before Lehman collapsed to the close yesterday, the dollar has appreciated 4.2%.

Everyone for some reason thinks that Bernanke is just inflating the dollar to worthless paper when in reality his inflation record has been the best of any Fed president. Everyone needs to keep in mind everything is relative. If you're at a bar and you want to pick up a girl, its not THAT important that you are handsome and charming, you just have to be more handsome and charming than all the other guys in the bar. That is the same scneario with the dollar right now.


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