Posted byMessage
LSU0358
LSU Fan
Member since Jan 2005
4963 posts

Serious Damage Done to Precious Metal


Bull market hopes on Friday. I've been bullish for a while with thank goodness no position.

~70 dollar down days in gold aren't common in a bull market. Unless gold rebounds to the upside early next week the gold bull is over IMO.







Back to top
Share:
foshizzle
LSU Fan
Washington DC metro
Member since Mar 2008
28581 posts

re: Serious Damage Done to Precious Metal


Looks like doomsday will have to wait until next year.





Back to top
LSURussian
LSU Fan
Baton Rouge
Member since Feb 2005
76105 posts

re: Serious Damage Done to Precious Metal


I just hope this is not a preview of a cyclical deflationary cycle.

Of course, wiki would love to have that happen. Just think of all the increased liberty all those bankruptcies would create!!!






Back to top
OFWHAP
LSU Fan
Member since Sep 2007
4772 posts

re: Serious Damage Done to Precious Metal


quote:

~70 dollar down days in gold aren't common in a bull market. Unless gold rebounds to the upside early next week the gold bull is over IMO.



Technically gold just entered a bear market, so there's that...






Back to top
LSU0358
LSU Fan
Member since Jan 2005
4963 posts

re: Serious Damage Done to Precious Metal


quote:

just entered a bear market


Exactly.






Back to top
LSU0358
LSU Fan
Member since Jan 2005
4963 posts

re: Serious Damage Done to Precious Metal


quote:

I just hope this is not a preview of a cyclical deflationary cycle.


I don't think it will be anything immediate. The stock market is looking too nice at the moment. In 1 to 1.5 years we could get a nasty downturn IMO. I don't think we take out the 2008/2009 lows. But it's going to scare everyone. Think it occurs when Benny takes the punch bowl away.

I've been way off on my commodity prediction. I'm still up very nicely this year in my leveraged acct with mini-Dow trading. My cash (401k) has done extremely well with DSX, MMM, and XLI this year. I've missed any potential commodity shorts and the US Dollar bull that has now begun. I'll be making an entry in it shortly.






Back to top
Vols&Shaft83
Tennessee Fan
Member since Dec 2012
8706 posts

re: Serious Damage Done to Precious Metal


quote:

LSU0358


Can you tell me when my Xbox Live Gold is going to work again?






Back to top
Reubaltaich
USA Fan
A nation under duress
Member since Jun 2006
2248 posts

re: Serious Damage Done to Precious Metal


IDK much about gold, but silver prices are starting to look attractive.





Back to top
SlowFlowPro
Stanford Fan
Simple Solutions to Complex Probs
Member since Jan 2004
286661 posts
 Online 

re: Serious Damage Done to Precious Metal


quote:

Just think of all the increased liberty all those bankruptcies would create!!!

isn't deflation a natural thing? markets get hot, prices increase. they get too high, and they decrease.

honest question






Back to top
Bunk Moreland
Michigan Fan
Detroit, MI.
Member since Dec 2010
4997 posts

re: Serious Damage Done to Precious Metal


The goldbug brigade is screaming orchestrated takedown and saying the physical market is very different.
LINK /
LINK /
LINK
LINK






Back to top
LSU0358
LSU Fan
Member since Jan 2005
4963 posts

re: Serious Damage Done to Precious Metal


They can scream all they want, the price is the price.

There is no doubt it's orchestrated. The banks borrow (paper gold) depository gold at a fee of 1-2% on the year. They sell the gold on the open market using the paper receipt as collateral. All very legal by the way. The purpose is to drive the gold price down.






Back to top
brodeo
Citadel Fan
Member since Feb 2013
99 posts

re: Serious Damage Done to Precious Metal


Wouldn't deflation be a positive to most consumers as their purchasing power would increase? Also, deflation would be great for savers. However, deflation would hurt borrowers and those making regular payments on debts.





Back to top
LSURussian
LSU Fan
Baton Rouge
Member since Feb 2005
76105 posts

re: Serious Damage Done to Precious Metal


quote:

Wouldn't deflation be a positive to most consumers

No, because unemployment increases in a deflationary spiral. Full time jobs are reduced to part time jobs. Banks slow lending because collateral values decline. Auto sales slow as buyers wait for prices to fall. Assets usually held for wealth generation purposes (commercial real estate, precious metals, stocks) decline in value.






Back to top
kingbob
LSU Fan
St. Amant, LA
Member since Nov 2010
13911 posts

re: Serious Damage Done to Precious Metal


If prices are declining, wouldn't that spur spending on cars? If prices are low, most businesses should see an increase in business, which should offset the need to layoff workers. Stocks would decline in value, but in real dollars they would remain roughly the same as the differences in price are purely due to changing from inflation to deflation (their value remains the same relative to the market, only their price changes).





Back to top
OFWHAP
LSU Fan
Member since Sep 2007
4772 posts

re: Serious Damage Done to Precious Metal


quote:

If prices are declining, wouldn't that spur spending on cars? If prices are low, most businesses should see an increase in business, which should offset the need to layoff workers. Stocks would decline in value, but in real dollars they would remain roughly the same as the differences in price are purely due to changing from inflation to deflation (their value remains the same relative to the market, only their price changes).


But if I anticipate that the car will be even cheaper if I only wait a little longer, then I'll keep waiting. If you have any kind of debt, the dollar value of your debt will remain the same in a deflationary period, so you will have to pay back your debt with a decreased income.






Back to top
kingbob
LSU Fan
St. Amant, LA
Member since Nov 2010
13911 posts

re: Serious Damage Done to Precious Metal


That makes sense. I would assume that purchasing that does not require debt would increase while purchasing on credit would decrease.





Back to top
OFWHAP
LSU Fan
Member since Sep 2007
4772 posts

re: Serious Damage Done to Precious Metal


Even with regards to purchasing on credit or with cash, if you anticipate that any good is going to decrease in price in the future, you're going to wait as long as you can. The thing is that many people will be doing this, which will drive the prices even lower. Pretty soon businesses will begin to have cash flow issues.





Back to top
bovine1
LSU Fan
Walnut Ridge,AR via Tallulah,LA
Member since Dec 2004
797 posts

re: Serious Damage Done to Precious Metal


Everybody is negative except for 1 dude. I think I'll put in a CEF order. It's trading below NAV and that's rare.10 yr average is a +7.5% and right now it's discounted. It's been positive since 02 looks like by the chart.





Back to top
LSURussian
LSU Fan
Baton Rouge
Member since Feb 2005
76105 posts

re: Serious Damage Done to Precious Metal


Gold down $115/oz & silver down $3.30oz (12%) this morning.


This post was edited on 4/15 at 5:02 am


Back to top
LSU0358
LSU Fan
Member since Jan 2005
4963 posts

re: Serious Damage Done to Precious Metal


quote:

Gold down $115/oz & silver down $3.30oz (12%) this morning.


At first I was unhappy I'd missed the shorting opportunity. Now I'm just happy I wasn't long.

Over the coming weeks all of the physical holders that are average joe's will have to sell at steep discounts compared to the spot prices.






Back to top



Back to top