At this point in the series, those are as good of guesses/theories as anybody else's. The more you watch, the more you'll see if/where you're right/wrong. And like I said, once you're done with the series finale, going back and looking at your theories should be good times.
Are you to the point where it's killing you to not be able to watch the show 24/7? I remember when I rewatched with my ex, it sucked so bad if we couldn't get together and watch the show on any particular night...it meant I had to go another day without it. Lost was very much addicting for me.