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DeltaDoc 
LSU Fan
The Delta
Member since Jan 2008
6149 posts
| Are We Sitting On Another Stock Market Bubble? (Posted on 2/1/13 at 10:22 am)
The Dow just went over 14,000 for the first time in nearly 6 years (2007)...right before the crash.
What is causing such a market increase, is it real or substantive and are we are the potential verge of another crash if it is not substantive?
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udtiger
LSU Fan
Louisiana
Member since Nov 2006
17967 posts
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| re: Are We Sitting On Another Stock Market Bubble? (Posted on 2/1/13 at 10:23 am to DeltaDoc)
My money's on yes.
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Powerman
LSU Fan
Corpus Christi, TX
Member since Jan 2004
115646 posts
| re: Are We Sitting On Another Stock Market Bubble? (Posted on 2/1/13 at 10:24 am to DeltaDoc)
I'll get cautious if it goes substantially higher in a short period of time
I don't think that we need to panic with the dow at 14000
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constant cough 
New Orleans Saints Fan
Lafayette
Member since Jun 2007
28321 posts
| re: Are We Sitting On Another Stock Market Bubble? (Posted on 2/1/13 at 10:26 am to DeltaDoc)
quote:
What is causing such a market increase, is it real or substantive and are we are the potential verge of another crash if it is not substantive?
It's going up cause Obama was re-elected and the Fed just announced it will keep pumping.
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Champagne
New Orleans Saints Fan
French and Spanish Empire Border
Member since Oct 2007
7923 posts
| re: Are We Sitting On Another Stock Market Bubble? (Posted on 2/1/13 at 10:27 am to DeltaDoc)
I don't know, just so long as we keep kicking the can down the road.
We can't worry about the future generations at this point . . . let them figure it out for themselves.
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beaverfever 
Arkansas Fan
Little Rock
Member since Jan 2008
4891 posts
| re: Are We Sitting On Another Stock Market Bubble? (Posted on 2/1/13 at 10:30 am to DeltaDoc)
The market is selling at a much lower PE than it was last time it was at 14k.
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DeltaDoc
LSU Fan
The Delta
Member since Jan 2008
6149 posts
| re: Are We Sitting On Another Stock Market Bubble? (Posted on 2/1/13 at 10:35 am to beaverfever)
quote:
The market is selling at a much lower PE than it was last time it was at 14k
Doesn't a lower PE equate to more risk...generally speaking?
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cwill
New Orleans Saints Fan
Member since Jan 2005
18834 posts
| re: Are We Sitting On Another Stock Market Bubble? (Posted on 2/1/13 at 10:35 am to constant cough)
quote:
t's going up cause Obama was re-elected
I thought the meme was that anytime he did anything the market went down????
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ForeLSU
LSU Fan
The Corner of Sanity and Madness
Member since Sep 2003
30358 posts
| re: Are We Sitting On Another Stock Market Bubble? (Posted on 2/1/13 at 10:38 am to DeltaDoc)
quote:
What is causing such a market increase, is it real or substantive
lots of folks in cash or bonds are moving back into equities. There doesn't appear to be much volatility at this point, and the run up doesn't appear to be based on any sort of irrational exuberance. Of course there's still a lot that can happen across the globe that could cause disruption, but I don't think this is any sort of a "bubble".
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DeltaDoc
LSU Fan
The Delta
Member since Jan 2008
6149 posts
| re: Are We Sitting On Another Stock Market Bubble? (Posted on 2/1/13 at 10:39 am to ForeLSU)
quote:
Of course there's still a lot that can happen across the globe that could cause disruption, but I don't think this is any sort of a "bubble".
What role has QE taken in the run up on the markets?
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CITWTT
LSU Fan
baton rouge
Member since Sep 2005
25111 posts
Online
| re: Are We Sitting On Another Stock Market Bubble? (Posted on 2/1/13 at 10:39 am to DeltaDoc)
Most definitely YES. Last August or so the Fed and Treasury stated publicly that they had manipulated the DJ for a long time and that was the reason 12,000 was the benchmark at that time. They said if they had not done that the DJ would be at 6,000 in November 2011. That number was exactly what I told friends the DJ would be at at the time.
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dante
LSU Fan
Kingwood, TX
Member since Mar 2006
2140 posts
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| re: Are We Sitting On Another Stock Market Bubble? (Posted on 2/1/13 at 10:47 am to DeltaDoc)
Makes no sense to me. Fed pumping has certainly helped, but still with so much uncertainty about the economy I do not have a lot of faith in the market.
When 4th quarter earnings get released look for them not to meet or beat expectations (opinion only).
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Cold Pizza 
Ohio State Fan
Member since Sep 2011
7639 posts
| re: Are We Sitting On Another Stock Market Bubble? (Posted on 2/1/13 at 10:48 am to DeltaDoc)
quote:
quote:
The market is selling at a much lower PE than it was last time it was at 14k
Doesn't a lower PE equate to more risk...generally speaking?
No. It's a bit of an oversimplication, but a P/E going down is like the price of a bond going down; you get the same payout with a lower cost.
The risk of course is earnings crashing.
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beaverfever
Arkansas Fan
Little Rock
Member since Jan 2008
4891 posts
| re: Are We Sitting On Another Stock Market Bubble? (Posted on 2/1/13 at 10:49 am to DeltaDoc)
quote:
Doesn't a lower PE equate to more risk...generally speaking?
No I wouldn't say that. It just means that the average stock is selling cheaper relative to earnings than it was in 2007. There is more value in the market than there was back then.
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Cholo
Arkansas Fan
El Paso, Texas
Member since Oct 2012
962 posts
Online
| re: Are We Sitting On Another Stock Market Bubble? (Posted on 2/1/13 at 10:52 am to beaverfever)
Yes. I sold all my stocks on Tuesday.
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jcole4lsu 
Virginia Fan
The Kwisatz Haderach
Member since Nov 2007
21820 posts
Online
| re: Are We Sitting On Another Stock Market Bubble? (Posted on 2/1/13 at 10:52 am to dante)
quote:
but still with so much uncertainty about the economy
what uncertainty?
we have had the exact same economy since the "recovery" began. its crawling back. at some point you have to realize it is what it is and get off the sidelines and let your money go make money while you still can.
dow being up makes perfect sense to me. thinking its an indication of a strong economy however - well ill leave that to fanboi's and retards who like to crow about how smart they are.
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TrueTiger
LSU Fan
Republic of West Florida
Member since Sep 2004
2531 posts
Online
| re: Are We Sitting On Another Stock Market Bubble? (Posted on 2/1/13 at 11:00 am to Champagne)
quote:
We can't worry about the future generations at this point . . . let them figure it out for themselves.
I bet when they are told they will be taxed at 80+% they will sit on their hands, cheat,
barter, use bitcoin, deal black market only. In general, the government won't get what
it needs to pay its bills and will be forced to default.
The reset button will be struck one way or another.
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GumboPot
LSU Fan
Saints Fan
Member since Mar 2009
17345 posts
| re: Are We Sitting On Another Stock Market Bubble? (Posted on 2/1/13 at 11:00 am to DeltaDoc)
As long as Benanke keeps buying MBSs and keeps ZIRP in place money is forced to find better returns. Equities is that place (I know there are others but the stock market is biggest place to find better returns).
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ForeLSU
LSU Fan
The Corner of Sanity and Madness
Member since Sep 2003
30358 posts
| re: Are We Sitting On Another Stock Market Bubble? (Posted on 2/1/13 at 11:01 am to DeltaDoc)
quote:
What role has QE taken in the run up on the markets?
there is still some correlation with the fed balance sheet and the market, but I think the sentiment right now is that we're at least stable enough to move back into the market.
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jcole4lsu
Virginia Fan
The Kwisatz Haderach
Member since Nov 2007
21820 posts
Online
| re: Are We Sitting On Another Stock Market Bubble? (Posted on 2/1/13 at 11:05 am to ForeLSU)
quote:
but I think the sentiment right now is that we're at least stable enough to move back into the market.
thats my view
as long as people dont fear that they are going to lose their shirts in some sort of crash - smart people know they can make money in the market, regardless of how slow the economy is so long as its "stable enough"
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