1/28/13 Basketball-old kelly k. and spreadsheets DO NOT WORK bet thread-NSFW | Page 15 | TigerDroppings.com

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NOLA1128
LSU Fan
Camp Lejeune, NC
Member since Dec 2011
1112 posts

re: 1/28/13 Basketball-old kelly k. and spreadsheets DO NOT WORK bet thread-NSFW


quote:

Guess I'm starting it tomorrow then Mac?



I say so. And you should start it right at midnight, or whenever plays end.






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maclauer
Georgia Fan
Member since Nov 2011
4019 posts
 Online 

re: 1/28/13 Basketball-old kelly k. and spreadsheets DO NOT WORK bet thread-NSFW


30u in 30d, currently +16.7u through 7 days
day 1: 5-5, (0-2-1 on 2x), -2.7u
day 2: 9-4, +4.6u
day 3: 2-2 (0-1 on 2x), -1.3u
day 4: 11-5 (5-0 on 2x), +10.5u
day 5: 11-2 (1-0 on 2x), +9.8u
day 6: 6-6, -0.6u
day 7 (today): 3-6-2 (0-0-1 on 2x), -3.6u

partial totals: 27-14-2 (6-1-2 on 2x), +16.5u
partial sides: 8-10-1 (0-2 on 2x), -5.2u
partial team totals: 1-1, -0.1u
full-game sides: 9-3, +5.7u
full-game totals: 2-2, -0.2u






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maclauer
Georgia Fan
Member since Nov 2011
4019 posts
 Online 

re: 1/28/13 Basketball-old kelly k. and spreadsheets DO NOT WORK bet thread-NSFW


quote:

Guess I'm starting it tomorrow then Mac?

yes, please. I'm done for the night. finished 3-6-1, -3.6u






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bamafan425
Alabama Fan
Member since Jan 2009
23672 posts

re: 1/28/13 Basketball-old kelly k. and spreadsheets DO NOT WORK bet thread-NSFW


Adding Canucks in the late NHL game. Hoping that Nashvegas comes back.





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memphstigers23
Ole Miss Fan
Fenway Pahk
Member since Mar 2012
10278 posts

re: 1/28/13 Basketball-old kelly k. and spreadsheets DO NOT WORK bet thread-NSFW


There's only one rally gif that will work. BAMA gonna love this





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bamafan425
Alabama Fan
Member since Jan 2009
23672 posts

re: 1/28/13 Basketball-old kelly k. and spreadsheets DO NOT WORK bet thread-NSFW


Rachel Bilson? If not, it should be.




This post was edited on 1/28 at 9:14 pm


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maclauer
Georgia Fan
Member since Nov 2011
4019 posts
 Online 

re: 1/28/13 Basketball-old kelly k. and spreadsheets DO NOT WORK bet thread-NSFW


after a bad night, there's nothing better than seeing a 10+ game slate to choose from the next day

but we only got 4 NBA games tomorrow






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NOLA1128
LSU Fan
Camp Lejeune, NC
Member since Dec 2011
1112 posts

re: 1/28/13 Basketball-old kelly k. and spreadsheets DO NOT WORK bet thread-NSFW


quote:

but we only got 4 NBA games tomorrow



But twelve on Wednesday






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maclauer
Georgia Fan
Member since Nov 2011
4019 posts
 Online 

re: 1/28/13 Basketball-old kelly k. and spreadsheets DO NOT WORK bet thread-NSFW


quote:

But twelve on Wednesday

:boner:







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bamafan425
Alabama Fan
Member since Jan 2009
23672 posts

re: 1/28/13 Basketball-old kelly k. and spreadsheets DO NOT WORK bet thread-NSFW


I'm gonna try and play golf tomorrow. We always do well after I play golf.





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maclauer
Georgia Fan
Member since Nov 2011
4019 posts
 Online 

re: 1/28/13 Basketball-old kelly k. and spreadsheets DO NOT WORK bet thread-NSFW


quote:

I'm gonna try and play golf tomorrow. We always do well after I play golf.

I drank blue moon and ate chicken today

need a new routine. and I want a new school logo next to my name. yall choose -- can't be an sec school and no, hoff94, I don't want OU






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Bryant91092
Ohio State Fan
Member since Dec 2009
16853 posts

re: 1/28/13 Basketball-old kelly k. and spreadsheets DO NOT WORK bet thread-NSFW


Go with the pony express. It was all about $$$





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bamafan425
Alabama Fan
Member since Jan 2009
23672 posts

re: 1/28/13 Basketball-old kelly k. and spreadsheets DO NOT WORK bet thread-NSFW


Aw man. I was gonna say Chattanooga, but it doesn't have a team logo.





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maclauer
Georgia Fan
Member since Nov 2011
4019 posts
 Online 

re: 1/28/13 Basketball-old kelly k. and spreadsheets DO NOT WORK bet thread-NSFW


quote:

Go with the pony express. It was all about $$$

if it makes you post more






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BGUT
Air Force Fan
Member since Jan 2010
49 posts

re: 1/28/13 Basketball-old kelly k. and spreadsheets DO NOT WORK bet thread-NSFW


We shall battle through it!! I like to look at weekly results versus the daily approach.
The daily results was giving me ulcers! Week is early lets get it back little by little!!

Mac, does your system account for teams that are on a long road stretch and are tired and weary?






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maclauer
Georgia Fan
Member since Nov 2011
4019 posts
 Online 

re: 1/28/13 Basketball-old kelly k. and spreadsheets DO NOT WORK bet thread-NSFW


quote:

We shall battle through it!! I like to look at weekly results versus the daily approach.
The daily results was giving me ulcers! Week is early lets get it back little by little!!

or we could go 15-1 and get it back quickly

quote:

Mac, does your system account for teams that are on a long road stretch and are tired and weary?

home-road splits but I don't have anything in the formula about 4 games in 5 nights. can't just trust numbers, full-game picks take qualitative assessment as well (public consensus, match-ups, effort, fatigue, etc)






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BGUT
Air Force Fan
Member since Jan 2010
49 posts

re: 1/28/13 Basketball-old kelly k. and spreadsheets DO NOT WORK bet thread-NSFW


FYI.. A little wisdom from sportscheetah. PART 1

Bankroll Creation &Management, The Importance of Locals, and Why Volume Matters

Bankroll Truth and Basics
There’s an ugly truth about sports gambling. Everyone preaches “bankroll management”. You’ve heard people say a million times “one unit should equal one percent of your bankroll”. The fact of the matter is that most people don’t have $10k of cash on hand they’re gambling with to make $100 wagers, and those that do are usually betting more than $100/game.
I subscribe to the 1% theory, but in a variety of methods. If you think that I’m comfortable having $30k (which is my effective bankroll) in 5Dimes, BetOnline, Bookmaker, etc…you’re wrong. Anyone that played online poker should know better than that.
I have no problem depositing a few grand, and building it up, and then withdrawing my profits monthly. If I bust an account, I can always deposit (Lord knows there are a million deposit bonuses).
The question is, how did I come up with a $30k bankroll? Did I start with $100 and grind my way up to $30k? I wish. The reality is that I have about $10k in cash spread between various sites. I have another $10k in credit at each of two locals. I have $20k in my savings account “earmarked” for gambling and fortunately I seldom have to tap into it.
When I bet a game, I traditionally spread my $300 bet between 3 sites (including local sites), assuming they all have the same line. If I’m getting a better line someplace else, I may put all $300 on one site, but I try and spread it out as much as possible.






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BGUT
Air Force Fan
Member since Jan 2010
49 posts

re: 1/28/13 Basketball-old kelly k. and spreadsheets DO NOT WORK bet thread-NSFW


Part 2

How I got to a $30k bankroll
If you’re not in a position where you have $10k you can start with, look at your budget and ask yourself what a monthly amount you can afford to lose would be and annualize that number. If it’s $500, I would annualize that number to $6,000 and I would save up for 3 months to $1500 before I began. Now your units are $60 (using a theoretical $6k bankroll) and you’ve got 25 units to start out with. Every month, add $500 to your bankroll. It may be down to $1k or up to $2500. Either way, add $500 (or whatever you can afford) monthly.
Before long, if you practice effective bankroll management, your initial $1500 exceed that $6k between contributions and consistent winning. Eventually you’ll have enough built up that you won’t have to contribute to the bankroll every month, you just stash some in a money market as local collateral and earn interest
This is exactly how I got to $30k. Obviously this has taken some time, and discipline is CRUCIAL, but it’s very possible






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BGUT
Air Force Fan
Member since Jan 2010
49 posts

re: 1/28/13 Basketball-old kelly k. and spreadsheets DO NOT WORK bet thread-NSFW


Part 3

The Importance of Locals
Every town in America has a “local guy”. For those that are outside the US, there are all kinds of casinos that offer lines of credit. Unless you’re in Vegas, that’s not currently possible for sports betting (and frankly I’ve never investigated getting a marker for sports in Vegas, but I assume it would be no different than a marker for blackjack or craps).
Finding a local can sometimes be a challenge, but they’re definitely out there. If you can find a local poker game, you can likely find a “local guy”.
The beautiful thing of the modern day local is that more and more they’re using websites. This works wonderfully, especially for things like futures. If you bet team season win totals with a local, you’re completely taking the time value of money factor out of the equation (which is a popular argument against futures).
The reality it’s possible that you could open an account with a local, never give him a dime, and just collect from him. It’s like having a credit card where you never have to pay the bill but get all of the rewards points and cash back.
Most importantly…use locals responsibly. I think these folks are doing a public service and most that I know are genuinely good people. While most guys don’t break legs and beat you up anymore, they will show up at your work if you avoid them (I’ve seen it happen) and make your life very uncomfortable. Make sure you have the money to pay them. I don’t recommend using one until you do.






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BGUT
Air Force Fan
Member since Jan 2010
49 posts

re: 1/28/13 Basketball-old kelly k. and spreadsheets DO NOT WORK bet thread-NSFW


FINAL Part 4

Why Volume Matters
Quick math quiz:
You bet 10 games/month at $100/game. You win 60%.
Win $600 – Loss $440 (loss plus juice) = $160 net win
You bet 100 games/month at $100/game. You win 55%.
Win $5500 – Loss $4950 (loss plus juice) = $550 net win
While 100 games/month seems like a lot, it’s really only 3.3 games/day or 25/week. That’s pretty standard volume if you follow us here.
If you’re a winning better, it’s about grinding out wins through volume, not chasing unrealistic win rates. Professional poker players can almost always tell you their hourly win rate at a particular game ($2/5 NL, etc). They want to get as much time as possible in games that they feel they have an edge. Playing many games when you’re a +EV bettor is no different. Sure, there are times when it’s best to pass. But if you’re a +EV bettor, volume is your friend.






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